Falcons @ Titans - Preview

Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans, 1pm ET, 25th Oct 2015

The Story so Far

Atlanta (5-1) head to Tennessee following their first defeat of the Dan Quinn era; They've had extra days to prepare for this game following a Thursday night match-up in New Orleans. The Titans meanwhile sit at 1-4 and are on a 4-game losing streak with their heaviest defeat coming last weekend with a blow-out in Miami.

Flashback

The Titans hold a marginal 7-6 record in the All-time meetings.

The teams last met in 2011 with Atlanta edging a 23-17 battle with Matt Ryan throwing for 312 yards, Roddy White hauling in 6 catches for 147 yards and Tony Gonzalez passing 13,000 receiving yards. The Falcons defense held Chris Johnson to only 13 yards on 12 carries. 

Prior to that victory the Titans had held a 5-game streak over the Falcons.

Keys to Victory

The Titans overall #2 pick Marcus Mariota sits this one out with injury so 2nd year passer Zach Mettenburger goes up against Matt Ryan in the battle of the QB's. Mettenburger has a big arm but has gone 0-6 in his previous starts. 

The key to victory for the Atlanta defense will be to put pressure on Mettenburger. They'll look to do this two ways, firstly by preventing the run and making the Titans one dimensional on offense. The Falcons should succeed on this part as they have impressed against the run and are currently ranked #1 in the NFL, conceding only 78 yards / game. If they can stop the run game they will need to achieve a ramp-up in the pass-rush. Atlanta have only 7 sacks to date and will look to Adrian Clayborn and Vic Beasley to get after the passer. The Titans O-line has conceded 20 sacks in it's first 5 games so is vulnerable, despite first rounders Taylor Lewan and Chance Warmack manning the left-side.

Mettenburger looked good in spells last year, but looked vulnerable when feeling the blitz. He's been prone to throwing the ball up for grabs when under pressure so Atlanta need to limit his time in the pocket when he drops back. He's a capable #2 if given time.

Key to victory on offense is to avoid the turnovers that blighted the Saints game. Atlanta have looked balanced and moved the ball well all season thus far. If they play mistake-free they should be good enough to put points up. The O is ranked #4 on the ground with Devonta Freeman having a breakthrough year. The passing game, ranked #8, will always be strong with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, assuming the O-line can keep Ryan upright.

Who to Stop, Who to Avoid?

TE Delanie Walker is possibly the Titans best receiver and the Falcons struggled to cover Ben Watson last Thursday. Possibly some bracket coverages on Walker will be dialled-up to take him out of the game. 

An intriguing match-up on offense could be the troubled but ultra talented rookie Dorial Green Beckham going up against Robert Alford. With Harry Douglas out, it's likely Beckham will be the main benefactor of additional playing time. Alford has had his moments, both good and bad, so their battle could be an intriguing sideline on Sunday.

When the Falcons have the ball, it will be important to contain the Titans pass-rush. The Titans D is coached by Dick Lebeau who knows how to get after a QB and he has personnel to carry out his plans. Former Georgia Tech rusher Derrick Morgan can bring the heat and has 4.5 sacks in the first 5 games of 2015. Brian Orakpo has yet to burst out following his free agency move from Washington but remains a threat and Jurrell Casey posted double digit sacks in 2013. The Titans secondary is solid if not spectacular. Time will be the key to picking them apart or to the Titans ability to keep the Falcons in check successfully.

Old Faces, New Places

The Titans welcome back Guard Andy Levitre who was traded to Atlanta during pre-season. Levitre spent the last 2 years in Tennessee and will start on the much improved Falcons O-line. Atlanta could possibly face back-up Tight End Chase Coffman who spent two seasons in Atlanta, but will avoid a match-up with former WR Harry Douglas who departed in free agency after 7 seasons and 259 catches for the Dirty Birds and has been declared out of Sundays match-up.

Put Your Money on It

The Falcons start as 5.5 point favourites and I can only echo that spread.

Atlanta have been up-and-down in recent weeks, struggling to overcome the Redskins before being downed by the Saints. They need to bounce back from defeat with an improved performance as well as the road win in Tennessee. 

The odds should be stacked against the Titans. With Mariota out and only one victory in their last 15 games they could be on a slide. However, one man out is another mans opportunity and this is Mettenburger's. A good performance here could put him in the shop window. You have to ask at what point does the pressure mount on Whistenhunt? The drafting of Mariota may have bought him a season but he's currently 3-18 in Tennessee. Atlanta's unpredictability ensures nothing can ever be a sure thing but I they should take this one by a score or more, covering the spread.

Initial 2015 Draft Grades - AFC West

 23. Missouri OLB Shane Ray
 59. Colorado State T/G Ty Sambrailo
 92. Ohio State TE Jeff Heuerman
 133. Florida C Max Garcia
 164. Tulane CB Lorenzo Doss
 203. Maryland NT Darius Kilgo
 250. Northwestern QB Trevor Siemian
 251. Tulane CB Taurean Nixon
 252. Oklahoma State SS Josh Furman

Good Move - I liked the Broncos aggressively pouncing on the sliding Shane Ray, a selection they would not have even factored a week prior to the draft. Well worth the risk in the Broncos position. I thought Ty Sambrailo to be a prototype Broncos lineman, a finesse zone guy with exceptional footwork, though he needs to develop more power and strength he should be vying for a starting role in 2015.
Bargain Pick - Max Garcia will bring versatility to the O-line having started full seasons at Guard and Center and also played some Tackle in college. He's a powerful lineman who will excel in the run game, which the Broncos want to improve. He's probably not the ideal fit for a zone block scheme but Manny Ramirez was shopped as part of the move up for Shane Ray, so Garcia should compete for the starting Center spot in camp.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Shane Ray was regarded as a top 10 pick until reports of a foot injury and a citation for marijuana possession the week before the draft. His stock fell and Denver were the beneficiaries, trading up to #23 to take advantage. Ray is fast and explosive and regarded as one of the best pass-rushers in the draft, though is short-armed and could struggle to get off blocks. He could be a bargain and long-term replacement for Demarcus Ware but there are red flags here too.
Tell Me Why Again? - I didn't particularly like the late round picks for a team looking for immediate impact in a Superbowl push. I also thought Jeff Heuerman was a high-pick for a Broncos team with depth at TE but his superior blocking may get him some playing time.

 18. Washington CB Marcus Peters
 49. Missouri OL Mitch Morse
 76. Georgia WR Chris Conley
 98. Oregon State CB Steven Nelson
 118. Georgia ILB Ramik Wilson
 172. Oregon State LB D.J. Alexander
 173. Illinois State TE James O'Shaughnessy
 217. Southern Miss DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches
 233. Northern Illinois WR Da'Ron Brown

Good Move - The Chiefs primary need was to address the secondary. The Peters pick at #18 has plenty of associated risk so the double-down on corner with the talented Steven Nelson at #98 was a smart move.
Bargain Pick - James O'Shaughnessy will be given time to develop behind Travis Kelce but brings good hands, athleticism and speed. He won't offer much as a blocker initially but could be a mismatch out wide.
Risk / Reward Gamble - On the field, Marcus Peters brings prototype size for a corner, a 38% completion rate when targeted during the last 2 seasons in college and 8 interceptions. Off the field, Peters was suspended for one game in 2014 for a sideline tirade, then kicked off the team for multiple run-ins with coaching staff. It's a positional need pick for the Chiefs and for Peters it's probably a huge plus that Andy Reid will be his Head Coach. Can the Chiefs manage his personality in exchange for on-field performance?
Tell Me Why Again? - Mitch Morse at #49 seemed far too high for an intelligent but athletically limited O-lineman who will be transitioning inside from Tackle in the pro's. It only fits though that an Andy Reid led team should choose at least one lineman in the early rounds.

 4. Alabama WR Amari Cooper
 35. Florida State DL Mario Edwards
 68. Miami TE Clive Walford
 128. Miami OG Jon Feliciano
 140. Kansas LB Ben Heeney
 161. Florida LB Neiron Ball
 179. Virginia LB/DE Max Valles
 218. Tennessee State OT Anthony Morris
 221. Florida WR Andre Debose
 242. Kansas CB Dexter McDonald

Good Move - Oakland prioritised some targets for Derek Carr high up the draft and in almost un-Oakland like fashion selected Amari Cooper at #4 who was regarded as one of the more sure-fire players in the draft - the highly polished receiver will start Day One. Clive Walford is a receiving TE and he too could push to start early in his career but must improve his blocking.
Bargain Pick - Max Valles is a development pick for Oakland but someone who I enjoyed watching at Virginia working the opposite OLB spot from Eli Harold who went exactly 100 picks earlier to the 49ers. Valles may be more athlete right now, but was productive in college. If he can continue to develop and maybe bulk up a little, the Raiders could have a real value late round pick.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Mario Edwards was an enigma at Florida State, showing flashes of brilliance but consistently underachieving. There are some weight issues to address too, and it will be a tough challenge for Oakland to transfer his level of ability into his level of play.
Tell Me Why Again? - Unlike many previous drafts, it's hard to pick too many holes in this draft class. Oakland have come out with a handful of starters, some players with opportunities to start / contribute, then later round high measurables guys to be developed. They've rolled the dice with Edwards but I think we can afford them one typical Raiders gamble at least. This roster still has many holes but a step in the right direction.

 15. Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon
 48. Miami ILB Denzel Perryman
 83. Texas State CB Craig Mager
 153. North Dakota State OLB Kyle Emanuel
 192. Arkansas DT Darius Philon

Good Move - RB was a need position and Melvin Gordon was inarguably one of the top 2 running backs in the draft class. He starts for the Chargers immediately and instantly upgrades the offense.
Bargain Pick - Kyle Emanuel dominated at FCS level (19 sacks in 2014) but will find a steep upward curve from small school competition to the NFL. However he has a good first step burst, a non-stop motor and remained productive against top 25 teams too. Based on all these, he has an opportunity to make his mark and could prove to be a bargain 5th round pick.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Denzel Perryman is undersized at 5'11 and relatively slow (ran a 4.78 40 at the combine) but was a productive thumper at Miami. He's likely a 2-down LB but there's a need in San Diego and Perryman could replace Butler or Te'o if his smarts can overcome physical limitations. Comparisons to Vilma and Beason may be flattering but if he lived up to them, San Diego would be delighted.
Tell Me Why Again? - The Chargers parted with their 2015 4th rounder and 2016 fifth rounder in order to move up just 2 places to leapfrog the Texans and select Melvin Gordon. It demonstrated how desperate the Chargers were to obtain a replacement for Ryan Matthews but this seemed a heavy price to pay for just a 2 spot move, particularly when it was not a clear cut decision that the Texans would go RB. The only other quibble would be the absence of an O-lineman from the draft class. With only 5 picks opportunities were a little limited, but I would have been handing in the card for T.J Clemmings at #83 rather than Craig Mager who seemed a bit of a reach this early.

Initial 2015 Draft Grades - AFC North

 26. Central Florida WR Breshad Perriman
 55. Minnesota TE Maxx Williams
 90. Iowa DT Carl Davis
 122. Kentucky DE/LB Za'Darius Smith
 125. USC RB Javorius Allen
 136. Texas Southern CB Tray Walker
 171. Delaware TE Nick Boyle
 176. Tennessee State OG Robert Myers
 204. Georgia Tech WR Darren Waller

Good Move - Joe Flacco needed help at the skill positions and Ozzie Newsome delivered. Perriman is  tall and super-fast  - potentially a great Torrey Smith replacement if he can improve his hands. Maxx Williams should contribute at TE - both he and Boyle are insurance against the return of Dennis Pitta, and Javorius Allen will help spell Justin Forsett at RB.
Bargain Pick - Za'Darius Smith may be one dimensional but looks a good fit for the Ravens as a pass-rushing OLB. Smith had more QB pressures in 2014 than his college team-mate Bud Dupree who went 100 picks earlier to the Steelers. It will be interesting to see if Newsome can get one over their divisional rivals with this pick.
Risk / Reward Gamble - The Carl Davis pick at the top-end of the draft has boom/bust potential. Davis possesses all the 1st round-type measurables to become a dominant force but questions remain on productivity and commitment. I liked the gamble of Darren Waller from Georgia Tech's run option offense - he's a 6'6 receiver that will need coaching. Add in one-game team suspensions in 2013 and 2014 and you have the classic mix of unrealised on-field potential coupled with off-field issues.
Tell Me Why Again? - Why aren't other teams as good as the Ravens at drafting? Ozzie Newsome again goes out and obtains top talent in areas of need for the Ravens. You could make a case for the Ravens first 3 picks all going in Rd 1 and all of the draftees in this class could contribute by 2016.

 21. Texas A&M OT Cedric Ogbuehi
 53. Oregon OT Jake Fisher
 85. Rutgers TE Tyler Kroft
 99. TCU LB Paul Dawson
 120. USC CB Josh Shaw
 135. Arizona State DT Marcus Hardison
 157. Auburn TE C.J. Uzomah
 197. Fresno State FS Derron Smith
 238. West Virginia WR/KR Mario Alford

Good Move - I'm a big fan of Tyler Kroft who can block, has good hands, and is more athletic than given credit for. He's been a victim of system and poor QB play at Rutgers, I had him ranked not far behind Maxx Williams and loved the Bengals pick of him here. He'll be the #2 behind Tyler Eifert but the Bengals use a lot of these sets so he should see plenty of playing time.
Bargain Pick - Derron Smith of Fresno State would have likely been a high round pick if you gave him a couple of extra inches in height and took away his sports hernia surgery. An absolute bargain in the 6th round,  a 4-yr starter, Smith has excellent coverage skills and will make this roster.
Risk / Reward Gamble - I considered putting Cedric Ogbuehi here due to his ACL injury sustained in the bowl game against Virginia, but Paul Dawson figures to be a real wildcard. He was very productive at TCU and I had him mocked at #29 in the 1st round, but he didn't fare well at the combine and off-the-field concerns contributed to his slide. If the Bengals can get him to buy into the programme they could have a bargain pick, but Dawson could be true boom or bust.
Tell Me Why Again? - Not sure why the Bengals doubled down on tackles in the 1st two rounds. It seemed excessive though both current starters are in contract years - at least in Ogbuehi and Fisher they grabbed two of the better tackles in the draft.

 12. Washington NT Danny Shelton
 19. Florida State OL Cameron Erving
 51. Utah OLB Nate Orchard
 77. Miami RB Duke Johnson
 96. Washington State DT Xavier Cooper
 115. Northwestern S Ibraheim Campbell
 123. Washington State WR Vince Mayle
 189. Louisville CB Charles Gaines
 195. Mississippi State TE Malcolm Johnson
 198. USC TE Randall Telfer
 219. USC ILB Hayes Pullard
 241. Oregon DB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu

Good Move - The Browns amassing 12 picks to strengthen the roster. I particularly liked the Danny Shelton pick, he's a huge plug in the middle, but mobile too. He's an instant starter and there's no way the Browns finish #32 in run defense two consecutive seasons now. It was noticeable how all the Browns early defensive picks featured prominently as strong against the run.
Bargain Pick - I believe Ifo Ekpre-Olomu in the 7th round ranks as one of the bargains of the draft. He's undersized but is a gutsy battler and equally comfortable in man or zone. Reminds me a little of Brent Grimes. He's coming off a bad knee injury which probably affected his draft stock. He's got a bit of a depth chart to overcome, including Charles Gaines selected 52 places before him, but he's talented enough to stick around and hopefully play in sub-packages in 2015.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Vince Mayle had over 100 catches in 2014 but also an enormous 19 drops to his name. He's elusive with the ball in hand, but can he catch it in the pro's? There's a need at WR in Cleveland so he has a chance to stick - if he can just make that ball stick to his hands.
Tell Me Why Again? - There's always questions with the Browns. Who is going to be their QB? Why wasn't a #1 WR selected in what was a deep class and a glaring need? Why did they select Cameron Erving at Center when one of their top players is Alex Mack? All in all though, a more sensible draft than in previous years, where they've gambled on players with questionable character or off-field red flags (Josh Gordon, Johnny Manziel et al)

 22. Kentucky OLB Bud Dupree
 56. Ole Miss CB Senquez Golson
 87. Auburn WR Sammie Coates
 121. Ohio State CB Doran Grant
 160. Penn State TE Jesse James
 199. Central Michigan DE Leterrius Walton
 212. Miami OLB Anthony Chickillo
 239. Louisville S Gerod Holliman

Good Move - Senquez Golson has some seriously good ball skills - and a ratio of 10 picks per 3 passes defensed showing how dangerous he can be when the ball comes his way. At only 5'9 and under 180 pounds he's a bit small and lightweight and may be exposed against the run but is an A+ rated zone corner.
Bargain Pick - Leterrius Walton is a development pick who figures to gain some playing time in sub-packages as a rush end. One of the most productive college pass-rushers, the step-up in level of competition is likely to be huge, but he helps address the Steelers need for youth on their D-line.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Bud Dupree at #22 could be a massive risk / reward reach. His draft stock rose immeasurably following a freakish combine performance but whilst his athleticism is undeniable, scouts question his production and consistency.
Tell Me Why Again? - The absence of any sure-fire picks worries me about this draft class. I could go through each draftee and list at least one major concern for each player. It's either a brave developmental draft class with a lot of faith shown in Mike Tomlin's coaching staff, or a draft class with too many reach picks and question marks. Only time will tell.

Initial 2015 Draft Grades - AFC East

 50. Florida State CB Ronald Darby
 81. Louisville OG John Miller
 155. Florida State RB Karlos Williams
 188. Clemson LB Tony Steward
 194. Florida State TE Nick O'Leary
 234. Central Arkansas WR Dezmin Lewis

Good Move - The Bills addressed a pressing need with an interior O-lineman in the 3rd round. Miller should be in the mix for a starting role during training camp.
Bargain Pick - Nick O'Leary is an old school TE, not the most athletic or speedy but has excellent hands and will put his body on the line blocking. He has enough smarts to become a contributor, possibly as the #2 TE on the Bills roster behind big money free agent Charles Clay.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Dezmin Lewis is a tall receiver who dominated at the FCS level. It's a huge step up, but he looked good against stronger opposition against Texas Tech and in the Senior Bowl.
Tell Me Why Again? - The Bills had no 1st rounder following the trade-up for Sammy Watkins last year, but I won't judge the class on that. The draft strategy seemed confused - Darby is a good DB but joins a crowded secondary; Karlos Williams, an average back on a good Florida State team, lacks natural RB instincts having converted from DB and will sit behind at least LeSean McCoy and Fred Jackson on the depth chart; The Bills had pressing needs that were largely ignored in favour of average players at positions of strength.

 14. Louisville WR DeVante Parker
 52. Oklahoma DT Jordan Phillips
 114. Arizona State OG Jamil Douglas
 145. Memphis CB Bobby McCain
 149. Boise State RB Jay Ajayi
 150. Minnesota S Cedric Thompson
 156. Michigan State DB/WR Tony Lippett

Good Move - I liked the Parker pick but the Jordan Phillips selection was a stormer for Miami at #52 and a position of need for the franchise. A Rd1 talent (I'd mocked him to the Pats at #32), Phillips should be an interior anchor on the D-line for the Dolphins from Day One.
Bargain Pick - Jay Ajayi was in my discussions in the second tier of RB's (Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah) in this class and for him to slip due to a concern over his knee could leave Miami with an absolute bargain pick. The British born RB has some off-field red flags which he has rebounded from whilst at Boise, and could push to start or share the load in Miami.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Tony Lippett played CB, WR and special teams in college and it's his versatility and size that gives him a great shot at making the roster. He only played 88 defensive snaps last year but it appears Miami project him as an NFL corner. A good developmental pick.
Tell Me Why Again? - I really liked this class and could see all draftees contributing in 2015, albeit Lippett may benefit from a practice squad year. Throw in Ndamukong Suh and I feel Miami have had a pretty good off-season to date.

 32. Texas DT Malcolm Brown
 64. Stanford S Jordan Richards
 97. Oklahoma DE/LB Geneo Grissom
 101. Arkansas DE Trey Flowers
 111. Florida State OG Tre' Jackson
 131. Georgia Tech C Shaq Mason
 166. Navy LS Joe Cardona
 178. Mississippi State LB/S Matthew Wells
 202. Arkansas TE AJ Derby
 247. Marshall CB Darryl Roberts
 253. Alabama LB Xzavier Dickson

Good Move - Trey Flowers was arguably the nation's top DE against the run in college last year and shows power to generate pressure via pass rush too. He should earn plenty of snaps in rotation, particularly on first 2 downs.  

Bargain Pick - AJ Derby has size, speed and hands. Positional experience is limited having played only 1-yr at TE having played LB and QB - quite a unique mix. It's a deep TE depth chart in New England but a great place for a young TE to develop. A good fit all round.

Risk / Reward Gamble - Tre' Jackson is a 4-yr starter at National Champs Florida State, and was expected to be one of the top guards available but for an undistinguished 2014. Jackson has the size, but relied on that more than skill in college. Needs to control his weight and conditioning. 

Tell Me Why Again? - Hard to ever question Bill Belichick, but being picky S Jordan Richards seemed a few rounds too early. He was the only player in the Pats first 6 picks that will not play in the trenches, so a definite statement by New England. My only other question would be why no WR and why CB so late? They're the Superbowl champs though, so who am I to argue?

 6. USC DE Leonard Williams

 37. Ohio State WR Devin Smith

 82. Louisville OLB Lorenzo Mauldin

 103. Baylor QB Bryce Petty

 152. Texas A&M OG Jarvis Harrison

 223. Northwestern State DT Deon Simon

Good Move - Obtaining the general consensus best player in the draft by simply sitting at #6. It wasn't an area of need, but the Jets took advantage of the surprise pick of Scherff which shuffled the top end of the draft. The Jets D-line looks pretty formidable right now and with excellent depth.

Bargain Pick -  What Lorenzo Mauldin lacks in explosiveness he will make up for with non-stop effort. Has decent pass rush moves and is a high character guy who has battled a difficult background to become a highly productive college player and potential NFL starter.

Risk / Reward Gamble - Bryce Petty will at best be the Jets #3 but when you have Chan Gailey on your coaching staff I guess it makes some sense to have a developmental QB to bring on. Petty comes from a spread offense but does have good size and a strong arm. 

Tell Me Why Again? - It's undisputed that the Jets had more pressing needs than Williams but I can't argue with the BPA pick. Devin Smith is a potential home-run receiver and Lorenzo Mauldin should compete for playing time. However, the Jets draft still feels a little underwhelming beyond those 3 picks. The QB pick seemed a luxury when RB is a dire need and people like Ajayi, Langford, Cobb and other productive backs were still on the board.

Initial 2015 Draft Grades - AFC South

 16. Wake Forest CB Kevin Johnson
 43. Mississippi State ILB Benardrick McKinney
 70. Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong
 175. Michigan State WR Keith Mumphery
 211. South Florida OLB Reshard Cliett
 216. Rice DT Christian Covington
 235. LSU RB Kenny Hilliard

Good Move - I didn't have Johnson down as the #2 corner in the draft, but based on the Texans depth chart, the decision on taking their best rated corner makes a lot of sense. Johnson will probably back-up Joseph and Jackson and play in the nickel D in 2015.
Bargain Pick - I mocked Jaelen Strong late in Rd1 so for him to fall into the 3rd round was an absolute steal for the Texans. He'll be a big, strong, possession-type receiver, and a perfect complement opposite DeAndre Hopkins. Can't argue with Day One starter in Round 3.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Christian Covington suffered a dislocated kneecap in 2014 and his recovery makes this 6th round pick a risk. He's verstatile enough to play on a 3 or 4 D-line, assuming full recovery, has power and quickness to make the roster and contribute.
Tell Me Why Again? - McKinney drew a lot of mixed reviews from scouts but for me many of the later round picks were more questionable. Mumphery doesn't have NFL type attributes and his playing time in college was reduced over the last 2 years, Cliett shows some pass-rush skills but was projected to go undrafted and Hilliard has yet to reach 100 carries a season in college so his contribution in the pro's is surely limited?

29. Miami WR Phillip Dorsett
 65. Florida Atlantic CB D'Joun Smith
 93. Stanford DE Henry Anderson
 109. Central Florida SS Clayton Geathers
 151. Stanford NT David Parry
 205. Mississippi State RB Josh Robinson
 207. Georgia ILB Amarlo Herrera
 255. Mars Hill T/G Denzell Goode

Good Move - Targeting depth on the D-line and addressing the run defense. Henry Anderson was value at #93 following a productive 2014 at Stanford. He should fit into the starting rotation early on.
Bargain Pick - The second Stanford D-lineman chosen by the Colts in this class, David Parry fits a position of need for Indy as a powerful, stocky interior lineman who can generate some pass rush. He could be real good value in the 5th. Whilst he played just under 50% of snaps in college, I'd temper that with him playing hurt in the 2nd half of 2014. He'll likely be used in a rotation for the Colts. Josh Robinson in the 6th may also contribute as a powerful, hard-running back.
Risk / Reward Gamble - D'Joun Smith is a talented, athletic corner but comes from a small school program and will need to adjust to the step-up in class. Top-end speed is a question and he didn't play much slot in college, so he may be limited to sub-packages in his rookie year.
Tell Me Why Again? - Indy drew criticism for taking Phillip Dorsett when there were far more pressing needs on the roster - Dorsett has big-play written all over him so can understand the Colts taking BPA rather than addressing a need, but I wonder how much pressure GM Ryan Grigson feels he is under after a few underwhelming draft classes? Is Dorsett a swing for the fences? Geathers is a potential big hitting box-safety but is inconsistent and whilst amassing tackles as a 4-yr starter, is prone to missed tackles. The 4th round just felt too high for him.

 3. Florida DE/LB Dante Fowler
 36. Alabama RB T.J. Yeldon
 67. South Carolina OG A.J. Cann
 104. Louisville FS James Sample
 139. Florida State WR Rashad Greene
 180. Ohio State DT Michael Bennett
 220. Monmouth WR/TE Neal Sterling
 229. Notre Dame TE Ben Koyack

Good Move - In my opinion, the Jags really nailed this draft class. It was a great mix of highly productive college players with skills transferable to the NFL with a few less productive college players who have all the tools to be developed into NFL starters in the future. I can potentially see all 8 draftees contributing in 2015 with the top 6 picks potentially starters by 2016.
Bargain Pick -  I really like Rashad Greene who may be limited in the pro's to a polished slot type receiver but the value here was Michael Bennett who I mocked as a 1st round pick to the Lions. He's a disruptor who may need to improve strength but was an absolute steal in the 6th.
Risk / Reward Gamble - James Sample is an intriguing prospect who had a productive 2014. He's a strong, physical safety, probably better against the run than in coverage right now. Perhaps a developmental pick after only 1 full season starting in Louisville after transfer from Washington.
Tell Me Why Again? -  I'll struggle to argue with any of this class. If I'm trying to be subjective, I didn't like the T.J Yeldon pick that much. RB was a need but I simply feel other backs such as Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman and Jay Adayi had a bigger upside than Yeldon.
A bit of a post-draft footnote. Tell Me Why Again? Why are the Jags are so unlucky? The first rookie minicamp and top-pick Dante Fowler is lost for the year. 

2. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota
 40. Missouri WR Dorial Green-Beckham
 66. Utah OT Jeremiah Poutasi
 100. Auburn DL Angelo Blackson
 108. Alabama FB Jalston Fowler
 138. Minnesota RB David Cobb
 177. Louisville OLB Deiontrez Mount
 208. Boston College C Andy Gallik
 245. William & Mary WR Tre McBride

Good Move - The Titans were accused of being rudderless by Eddie George in the lead-up to the draft. The selection of Mariota gives the franchise a new direction. There's lots to like about Mariota. Any pick on a QB is always a risk, but I really feel the Titans needed something like this to stir them.
Bargain Pick - I couldn't decide whether Cobb (5th round) or Mount (6th round) was best value. I think they are probably situational part-time guys but both stand a chance at making significant contributions in their rookie years. Cobb is a powerful downhill runner who probably won't contribute much on passing downs but is a chain-mover. Mount brings good awareness and versatility of playing across the front 7 in college, but probably lacks the size to play full time on the D-line.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Dorial Green Beckham alone could be the reason for this Risk / Reward section. A fabulously talented receiver, DGB comes with more red flags than the Russian Army on Victory Day. The flags are off-field (burglary, assault, marijuana)  and on-field (poor route running, lack of work ethic). The comparisons to a young Randy Moss are based on his unique blend of size (6'5) and speed (4.49 40) but could equally apply to perceived red flags with Moss. DGB has not played football for a year after being kicked-off the Missouri team. This is a real wildcard of a pick.
Tell Me Why Again? - If the trade offer from the Eagles for #2 overall was genuine why not take the security of productive, known NFL quantities and multiple picks to help strengthen your franchise further rather than take the risk on a single player? The top of this draft class has major boom / bust potential. Mariota is exceedingly high character but will need development time and isn't necessarily a sure thing. Green-Beckham is uber-talented but the Titans know this is a complete roll of the dice. It's brave, but the Titans Front Office is under pressure and it's reflected in the risky nature of the picks at the top of this class. As such it's a very hard draft class to call.

Initial 2015 Draft Grades - NFC West

 24. Florida OT D.J. Humphries
 58. Missouri OLB Markus Golden
 86. Northern Iowa RB David Johnson
 116. Delaware State DE Rodney Gunter
 158. West Virginia DE/OLB Shaq Riddick
 159. UAB KR/WR J.J. Nelson
 256. Louisville TE Gerald Christian

Good Move - David Johnson was a sensible pick for the Cardinals - a big, bruising back to act as an effective foil for Andre Ellington. He can catch too. Scouts question his vision, and his blocking will need to improve too, but should provide a good contrast to what the Cards currently have and boost the run game immediately.
Bargain Pick - Nothing stands out here in the latter rounds - J.J.Nelson was lightning quick in the 40 at the combine but at only 156 lbs is very lightweight. Maybe he will surprise as a KR after posting a 38.7 yd average in his last season in college.
Risk / Reward Gamble - D.J Humphries will probably start wk1 for Arizona at RT. He relies on superior athleticism and power, the step up in class will negate some of this advantage. The Cards will need to help develop his fundamentals if they are to transition him to LT in a few years.
Tell Me Why Again? - The Cardinals traded 3 picks 123, 198 and 241 to move up only 7 picks, then took small school Rodney Gunter who wasn't expected to be drafted. The final half of the class were all borderline draft prospects / likely free agents. This is either fantastic scouting by Arizona or long-shot reaches.

 17. Oregon DE Arik Armstead
 46. Samford S Jaquiski Tartt
 79. Virginia OLB Eli Harold
 117. Oklahoma TE Blake Bell
 126. South Carolina RB Mike Davis
 132. Georgia Tech WR DeAndre Smelter
 165. Clemson P Bradley Pinion
 190. Boston College OG Ian Silberman
 244. Florida OG Trent Brown
 254. South Carolina TE Rory Anderson

Good Move - Trading down in round 1 and still obtaining the player everyone knew they were interested in. Now whether Armstead will translate his physical gifts into production, time will tell. But you can't argue with the Niners obtaining the man they wanted plus a 4th round pick in this draft and a 5th rounder in 2016.
Bargain Pick - Virginia's Eli Harold was a great pick at #79 for someone with a borderline 1st round grade. He'll be a good fit for the 49ers 3-4 system too. He's a deep depth chart at OLB to contend with in SF but should see time as an edge rusher in spells and will need to earn playing time. I loved Busta Anderson in the 7th, he's got the athleticism to stretch defenses and should stick around.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Tartt wasn't projected so high but with Randall and Collins off the board maybe the Niners saw the Safety class depleting quickly. He's a thumper of a Safety but playing at Samford he's going to be a work in progress in coverage. Development pick in the 2nd round.
Tell Me Why Again? - With Patrick Willis and Chris Borland retiring ILB appeared the 49ers most pressing need but the position wasn't even addressed in the latter rounds. CB also appeared a need which was ignored. The Tartt pick seemed a little high but I'll give the benefit to GM Trent Baalke with this one who might be looking Yr 2 and beyond. Indeed, the overall draft class felt a little like the start of a 3-yr plan - was it too developmental? I can't ignore the fact that a Punter with a 42yd average was selected in the middle of this class either.

 63. Michigan DE Frank Clark
 69. Kansas State WR/KR Tyler Lockett
 130. San Diego State T/G Terry Poole
 134. West Virginia G/C Mark Glowinski
 170. Towson CB Tye Smith
 209. Oregon State DE Obum Gwacham
 214. Buffalo OG Kristjan Sokoli
 248. Oregon State DB Ryan Murphy

Good Move - The pre-draft trade of their 1st round pick and C Max Unger for TE Jimmy Graham will steal the headlines. However, the Seahawks were enamoured with Tyler Lockett and whilst they sacrificed a number of picks to obtain him at #69, he will offer them a similar outlet to Percy Harvin previously. Lockett is most likely a slot receiver in the pro's, but played outside in college too. He will be heavily involved in returning kicks also. Can he bulk-up without losing speed?
Bargain Pick - Mark Glowinski was largely unheralded but is a hard-working and powerful Guard who retains good footwork from previously playing the Tackle position. Has a good chance to contribute on the Seahawk O-line due to his versatility.
Risk / Reward Gamble - The selection of Frank Clark divided opinion. He has a large amount of talent but it comes with an awful lot of off-the-field baggage including a second degree felony charge in 2012 for home invasion and theft and a recent plea bargain which avoided first degree charges for domestic violence and assault. On-the-field, Clark can be a powerful edge rusher. When you've been to the Superbowl twice in two years, I guess you can afford to take this Boom or Bust risk.
Tell Me Why Again? - We shouldn't doubt the Seahawks Front Office - so just Tell Me Why they can pick stand-out athletes with relatively average college productivity in the back-end of the draft and turn them into starters? Gwacham, Sokoli and Murphy all hit that same mould of athletic stand-outs who will need development by their position coaches.

 10. Georgia RB Todd Gurley
 57. Wisconsin OT Rob Havenstein
 72. Louisville OG Jamon Brown
 89. Oregon State QB Sean Mannion
 119. Iowa OT Andrew Donnal
 201. Missouri WR Bud Sasser
 215. Fresno State OG Cody Wichmann
 224. Baylor LB Bryce Hager
 227. Memphis DL Martin Ifedi

Good Move - The Rams realise one of their weaknesses has been on the O-line and they have at least attempted to address this with 4 O-linemen selected in their draft class of 9. They'll need at least a 50% success rate from these 4 draftees.
Bargain Pick - Cody Wichmann could surprise - he's a decent size guard and despite playing in the Mountain West, performed admirably when faced with top talent such as Leonard Williams and Randy Gregory in 2014. There's opportunity in St Louis for Wichmann to make his mark.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Todd Gurley is a top 5 talent and arguably the best running back out of college since Adrian Peterson. However, coming off an ACL injury it's a calculated risk for St Louis that Gurley will return back to the same player he was post-injury at Georgia. This was a brave pick and the success of the draft class could be on the back of how Gurley recovers from injury.
Tell Me Why Again? - Sean Mannion in the 3rd round feels like a real overstretch. He was very inconsistent in 2014 and is at best a game manager at QB who will have to rely on a strong supporting cast to be successful. When the Rams have holes to fill, a 3rd round pick on someone I'd class as a career back-up feels like a wasted pick.

Initial 2015 Draft Grades - NFC North

7. West Virginia WR Kevin White
39. Florida State NT Eddie Goldman
71. Oregon C Hroniss Grasu
106. Michigan State RB Jeremy Langford
142. Penn State S Adrian Amos
183. TCU OG Tayo Fabuluje

Good Move - WR Kevin White was my favourite player in the entire draft class;
The Bears have immediately replaced Brandon Marshall with a playmaker with deep speed and good hands. Just as importantly White is unassuming and should be a great locker room presence. He has the tools to be a star - if the Bears can coax performances from Jay Cutler.
Bargain Pick - I personally liked the value of Jeremy Langford in the 4th round. I don't think there is that much of a drop from Abdullah, Coleman or Yeldon to Langford in the run game, and what he offers better than the others is superior pass protection. A perfect fit behind Matt Forte.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Tayo Fabuluje comes with red flags on motivation and weight issues but is a mammoth sized tackle with decent feet. With only 2 years in college he will take time to develop but with the correct mindset and the right coach could be a steal.
Tell Me Why Again? - Bears fans will ask "Why can't the draft be in Chicago every year"
Rookie GM Ryan Pace has lots of holes to fill and this was a solid class with the top 3 picks starting immediately and the first 5 all likely to contribute from Day 1.

28. Duke OG Laken Tomlinson
54. Nebraska RB Ameer Abdullah
80. Stanford CB Alex Carter
113. Auburn DT Gabe Wright
168. Rutgers FB Mike Burton
200. Texas CB Quandre Diggs
240. South Carolina OT Corey Robinson

Good Move : I really like Ameer Abdullah. He doesn't have the top-end speed but is highly productive and versatile. In the Lions offense he could prosper. He has great hands out the backfield and even lined up in the slot often for Nebraska. A significant upgrade for the Lions.
Bargain Pick : Quandre Diggs is the brother of former 1st rounder Quinten Jammer who played 10-yrs in San Diego. Diggs didn't run the quickest 40 at the combine and at only 5'9 is destined to become a slot corner. However, he was a 4-yr starter at Texas so is value in the 6th round.
Risk / Reward Gamble : Gabe Wright won't remind anyone of the departed Suh or Fairley, but has the tools and good first step explosion to be an interior disruptor in Detroit. Wright wasn't overly productive at Auburn, and even this fell off in 2014, the Lions are hoping that with his toolset they can turn him into a better player in the pro's than in college.
Tell Me Why Again? : Another Guard taken in the 1st round?
Take your pick whether Laken Tomlinson is an unmovable uber-powerful behemoth or an immobile mass; His strength is in pass protection but he's unlikely to assist at the second-level in the run game. Good fit for the Lions pass offense or selected too high?

30. Arizona State DB Damarious Randall
62. Miami (OH) DB Quinten Rollins
94. Stanford WR/KR Ty Montgomery
129. Michigan ILB Jake Ryan
147. UCLA QB Brett Hundley
206. Oklahoma FB Aaron Ripkowski
210. Louisiana-Lafayette DT Christian Ringo
213. UAB TE Kennard Backman

Good Move - The Packers addressed need and targeted their secondary as priority. They elected to choose the better coverage safety Randall over the harder hitting Collins and doubled down on secondary in the 2nd round too with Rollins who can play both corner and safety positions.
Bargain Pick - Brett Hundley was muted as a 1st round pick only a few years ago and still rated as 3rd best QB in the class heading into the draft. He's not been allowed to develop as a passer in the UCLA offense, but will be afforded development time in Green Bay whilst Aaron Rodgers is under Center. An ideal landing spot for Huntley and a talent for the Packers to nurture.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Ty Montgomery didn't have a stellar 2014 season, averaging less than 10 yds a catch, which surprised many who thought he might be a 1st round pick. He's high character, versatile and built like a RB (played wildcard QB and tailback occasionally in college, as well as outside & slot receiver, plus kick returner) but has very questionable hands - 16 drops and 3 fumbles over 3 years in college. He'll return kicks initially, but in the right system who can get him the ball in hand in space, he could prosper. The Packers or Eagles seemed the ideal fit for Montgomery.
Tell Me Why Again? - I'll bow down to Ted Thompson for compiling the Packers talented roster almost entirely via the draft. It's hard to fault the picks which addressed needs in secondary and an ILB to afford Clay Matthews to move back outside. For a team so good, the class just seems to lack the immediate wow factor required to push Green Bay that next step.

11. Michigan State CB Trae Waynes
45. UCLA ILB Eric Kendricks
88. LSU DE Danielle Hunter
110. Pittsburgh OT T.J. Clemmings
143. Southern Illinois TE MyCole Pruitt
146. Maryland WR Stefon Diggs
186. Oklahoma OT Tyrus Thompson
193. Louisville DE B.J. Dubose
228. Alabama G/T Austin Shepherd
232. Newberry OLB Edmond Robinson

Good Move - Lots to like about this class, but up top for me was Trae Waynes who is lightning fast and loves to play man-to-man. Zimmer will utilise him opposite Xavier Rhodes to form an exciting aggressive set of corners. Waynes is far from perfect with a tendency to grab at receivers which will be punished more by NFL officials, but Zimmer is the ideal coach to develop his technique.
Bargain Pick - 5th rounder Stefon Diggs was a playmaker at Maryland and is electric in the open field. Coached in 2014 by Keenan McCardell, he's likely to be used in the slot and as a kick returner in Minnesota. He could be an intriguing weapon for Teddy Bridgewater. Scouts knock him for being too aware of the hit coming, maybe explained by 2 previous season ending injuries in college.
Risk / Reward Gamble - T.J Clemmings was a possible late 1st round pick until concerns over a foot injury. He's raw, with only 2 years experience in college following a switch from basketball, but has tremendous balance and footwork. Has been criticised for his technique, which probably compounded his fall in the draft, but if he can apply his first round type physical talents into on-field performance (probably with a year to develop in Minnesota) could be a heck of a bargain.
Tell Me Why Again? I think this is a very good draft class, but expected a little more help higher up the draft for Bridgewater. Zimmer is a greatest defensive coach and is beginning to form a formidable defense, I just wonder if they could have afforded one pick in the top 3 rounds at least to bolster the offensive. They will need at least 1 of their 3 late round O-linemen to pan out in 2015.

Initial 2015 Draft Grades - NFC East

27. Connecticut DB Byron Jones
 60. Nebraska DE Randy Gregory
 91. Florida T/G Chaz Green
 127. Minnesota ILB Damien Wilson
 163. Purdue DE Ryan Russell
 236. Wyoming LB Mark Nzeocha
 243. Virginia Tech OT Laurence Gibson
 246. Texas TE Geoff Swaim

Good Move - Addressing a team need in Rd1 with Byron Jones;
Jones is a high character team captain, both tall and fast, whose athletic performance at the combine was outstanding. Not best suited for man cover but made a lot of sense for the Cowboys at #27
Bargain Pick - Damien Wilson was productive in college. His athleticism will limit his role in the pro's but Dallas require LB depth so he has an opportunity to contribute.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Randy Gregory was a top 10 talent who fell to #60 on the back of 2 failed drug tests and a combine weigh-in at 225lbs. If the Cowboys can get Gregory's head in order, he has the frame to bulk-up to resolve the other issue. The first part will be far more difficult than the latter. It's an "If" but at #60 well worth the gamble on a player who at times in college was dominant.
Tell Me Why Again? - Gregory could make this draft for Dallas, but many of these picks felt like reaches and come on, no RB selected at all? The Cowboys 2014 success was all on the back of Demarco Murray. Gurley and Gordon were gone before #27 but it was a stellar draft class for RB's. No Tevin Coleman? No Jay Adayi? No Jeremy Langford? The Cowboys could come to regret this, they currently have oft-injured Darren McFadden to carry a hefty load. Not addressing the RB position seems foolhardy at best.

9. Miami OT Ereck Flowers
33. Alabama SS Landon Collins
74. UCLA DE Owa Odighizuwa
144. Texas S Mykkele Thompson
186. Connecticut WR Geremy Davis
226. Florida State OT Bobby Hart

Good Move - Landon Collins isn't the greatest cover safety but is an aggressive, big hitting tackler. Used in the right manner he could be a true enforcer. The Giants got the top safety in the draft at #33
Bargain Pick - UCLA's Owa Odighizuwa is an athletic, long armed DE who with more pass-rush refinement could be an absolute steal
Risk / Reward Gamble - Collins is re-listed here simply because the Giants paid a lot (2nd round, 4th round and 6th round picks) to move up just 7 places for him.
Tell Me Why Again? - Is it just me, or was this a strange draft class? Don't the Giants have pressing needs at LB which weren't addressed at all? Ereck Flowers filled a need, but his pass block technique needs improvement and I didn't see him as a top 10 pick. Even the late round picks were confusing. From the 5th round onwards the Giants seemed to select people projected to be free agents. Even 5th round pick Mykkele Thompson admitted that he didn't expect to be drafted.










20. USC WR Nelson Agholor
47. Utah CB Eric Rowe
84. Texas LB Jordan Hicks
191. Kansas CB JaCorey Shepherd
196. Kansas State CB Randall Evans
237. Boston College DE Brian Mihalik

Good Move - Finding a suitable replacement for Jeremy Maclin;
Nelson Agholor is a ready made replacement for Maclin, comparable in style and coming at about 1/5th of the salary. He'll likely contribute in the return game too. Looks a little bit lightweight but is difficult to tackle in the open field. Ideal fit for a Chip Kelly offense;
Bargain Pick - The best bargain was a 3rd rounder from Detroit next year for the Eagles 4th round pick this year. That aside, former WR JaCorey Shepherd has exceptional ball skills (32 passes defensed in last 2 yrs of college) and can play press cover. One of the better corners in college football last year and a bargain for the 6th round. Knocks against him for run support but he should contribute for the Eagles in 2015.
Risk / Reward Gamble - The biggest gamble failed to materialise with the Titans electing to stick at #2 and select Marcus Mariota.
Tell Me Why Again? - This Eagles team was a QB and a secondary away from a Superbowl run. I know Kelly is a Mariota fan but he risked the ranch on moving up to get him. If I was Tennessee, I'd have happily taken a top-notch starter (Fletcher Cox) and a high quality slot corner (Brandon Boykin) plus 2 first rounders in exchange for #2; How will some Eagles players react to being on the trade block?

5. Iowa T/G Brandon Scherff
38. Mississippi State OLB Preston Smith
95. Florida RB Matt Jones
105. Duke WR Jamison Crowder
112. Alabama OG Arie Kouandjio
141. Arkansas ILB Martrell Spaight
181. Virginia Tech S Kyshoen Jarrett
182. Arkansas CB Tevin Mitchel
187. Ohio State WR Evan Spencer
222. South Florida C Austin Reiter

Good Move - A solid if unspectacular draft - the Redskins addressed several needs;
From the pick of Scherff through Smith, Jones, Koundijo and Spaight the Skins went for physical, hard-nosed players. New GM Scot McCloughan isn't hitting for the fences but looking to steadily improve this team.
Bargain Pick - 5th round LB Martrell Spaight;
The SEC leader in tackles in 2014, he'll only be a 2-down player in the NFL but has a realistic chance of forcing himself into the starting line-up in Washington. Need position and physical contributor.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Preston Smith was a hand-down DE in college and will likely convert to 3-4 LB in Washington. Was solid, if not spectacular in college, but shows potential to break out.
Tell Me Why Again? - If I'm being picky, Scherff is best suited to play inside at Guard. He's the best lineman in the draft but do you take a Guard as a top 5 pick? I'll give Washington the benefit of the doubt that they couldn't find a trade down partner and knew the Giants were in the hunt at #9. Will they regret passing on Leonard Williams?