Monday, 11 May 2015

Initial 2015 Draft Grades - AFC South






 16. Wake Forest CB Kevin Johnson
 43. Mississippi State ILB Benardrick McKinney
 70. Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong
 175. Michigan State WR Keith Mumphery
 211. South Florida OLB Reshard Cliett
 216. Rice DT Christian Covington
 235. LSU RB Kenny Hilliard

Good Move - I didn't have Johnson down as the #2 corner in the draft, but based on the Texans depth chart, the decision on taking their best rated corner makes a lot of sense. Johnson will probably back-up Joseph and Jackson and play in the nickel D in 2015.
Bargain Pick - I mocked Jaelen Strong late in Rd1 so for him to fall into the 3rd round was an absolute steal for the Texans. He'll be a big, strong, possession-type receiver, and a perfect complement opposite DeAndre Hopkins. Can't argue with Day One starter in Round 3.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Christian Covington suffered a dislocated kneecap in 2014 and his recovery makes this 6th round pick a risk. He's verstatile enough to play on a 3 or 4 D-line, assuming full recovery, has power and quickness to make the roster and contribute.
Tell Me Why Again? - McKinney drew a lot of mixed reviews from scouts but for me many of the later round picks were more questionable. Mumphery doesn't have NFL type attributes and his playing time in college was reduced over the last 2 years, Cliett shows some pass-rush skills but was projected to go undrafted and Hilliard has yet to reach 100 carries a season in college so his contribution in the pro's is surely limited?








29. Miami WR Phillip Dorsett
 65. Florida Atlantic CB D'Joun Smith
 93. Stanford DE Henry Anderson
 109. Central Florida SS Clayton Geathers
 151. Stanford NT David Parry
 205. Mississippi State RB Josh Robinson
 207. Georgia ILB Amarlo Herrera
 255. Mars Hill T/G Denzell Goode

Good Move - Targeting depth on the D-line and addressing the run defense. Henry Anderson was value at #93 following a productive 2014 at Stanford. He should fit into the starting rotation early on.
Bargain Pick - The second Stanford D-lineman chosen by the Colts in this class, David Parry fits a position of need for Indy as a powerful, stocky interior lineman who can generate some pass rush. He could be real good value in the 5th. Whilst he played just under 50% of snaps in college, I'd temper that with him playing hurt in the 2nd half of 2014. He'll likely be used in a rotation for the Colts. Josh Robinson in the 6th may also contribute as a powerful, hard-running back.
Risk / Reward Gamble - D'Joun Smith is a talented, athletic corner but comes from a small school program and will need to adjust to the step-up in class. Top-end speed is a question and he didn't play much slot in college, so he may be limited to sub-packages in his rookie year.
Tell Me Why Again? - Indy drew criticism for taking Phillip Dorsett when there were far more pressing needs on the roster - Dorsett has big-play written all over him so can understand the Colts taking BPA rather than addressing a need, but I wonder how much pressure GM Ryan Grigson feels he is under after a few underwhelming draft classes? Is Dorsett a swing for the fences? Geathers is a potential big hitting box-safety but is inconsistent and whilst amassing tackles as a 4-yr starter, is prone to missed tackles. The 4th round just felt too high for him.








 3. Florida DE/LB Dante Fowler
 36. Alabama RB T.J. Yeldon
 67. South Carolina OG A.J. Cann
 104. Louisville FS James Sample
 139. Florida State WR Rashad Greene
 180. Ohio State DT Michael Bennett
 220. Monmouth WR/TE Neal Sterling
 229. Notre Dame TE Ben Koyack

Good Move - In my opinion, the Jags really nailed this draft class. It was a great mix of highly productive college players with skills transferable to the NFL with a few less productive college players who have all the tools to be developed into NFL starters in the future. I can potentially see all 8 draftees contributing in 2015 with the top 6 picks potentially starters by 2016.
Bargain Pick -  I really like Rashad Greene who may be limited in the pro's to a polished slot type receiver but the value here was Michael Bennett who I mocked as a 1st round pick to the Lions. He's a disruptor who may need to improve strength but was an absolute steal in the 6th.
Risk / Reward Gamble - James Sample is an intriguing prospect who had a productive 2014. He's a strong, physical safety, probably better against the run than in coverage right now. Perhaps a developmental pick after only 1 full season starting in Louisville after transfer from Washington.
Tell Me Why Again? -  I'll struggle to argue with any of this class. If I'm trying to be subjective, I didn't like the T.J Yeldon pick that much. RB was a need but I simply feel other backs such as Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman and Jay Adayi had a bigger upside than Yeldon.
A bit of a post-draft footnote. Tell Me Why Again? Why are the Jags are so unlucky? The first rookie minicamp and top-pick Dante Fowler is lost for the year. 








2. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota
 40. Missouri WR Dorial Green-Beckham
 66. Utah OT Jeremiah Poutasi
 100. Auburn DL Angelo Blackson
 108. Alabama FB Jalston Fowler
 138. Minnesota RB David Cobb
 177. Louisville OLB Deiontrez Mount
 208. Boston College C Andy Gallik
 245. William & Mary WR Tre McBride

Good Move - The Titans were accused of being rudderless by Eddie George in the lead-up to the draft. The selection of Mariota gives the franchise a new direction. There's lots to like about Mariota. Any pick on a QB is always a risk, but I really feel the Titans needed something like this to stir them.
Bargain Pick - I couldn't decide whether Cobb (5th round) or Mount (6th round) was best value. I think they are probably situational part-time guys but both stand a chance at making significant contributions in their rookie years. Cobb is a powerful downhill runner who probably won't contribute much on passing downs but is a chain-mover. Mount brings good awareness and versatility of playing across the front 7 in college, but probably lacks the size to play full time on the D-line.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Dorial Green Beckham alone could be the reason for this Risk / Reward section. A fabulously talented receiver, DGB comes with more red flags than the Russian Army on Victory Day. The flags are off-field (burglary, assault, marijuana)  and on-field (poor route running, lack of work ethic). The comparisons to a young Randy Moss are based on his unique blend of size (6'5) and speed (4.49 40) but could equally apply to perceived red flags with Moss. DGB has not played football for a year after being kicked-off the Missouri team. This is a real wildcard of a pick.
Tell Me Why Again? - If the trade offer from the Eagles for #2 overall was genuine why not take the security of productive, known NFL quantities and multiple picks to help strengthen your franchise further rather than take the risk on a single player? The top of this draft class has major boom / bust potential. Mariota is exceedingly high character but will need development time and isn't necessarily a sure thing. Green-Beckham is uber-talented but the Titans know this is a complete roll of the dice. It's brave, but the Titans Front Office is under pressure and it's reflected in the risky nature of the picks at the top of this class. As such it's a very hard draft class to call.


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