The Story so Far
Atlanta (5-1) head to Tennessee following their first defeat of the Dan Quinn era; They've had extra days to prepare for this game following a Thursday night match-up in New Orleans. The Titans meanwhile sit at 1-4 and are on a 4-game losing streak with their heaviest defeat coming last weekend with a blow-out in Miami.
Flashback
The Titans hold a marginal 7-6 record in the All-time meetings.
The teams last met in 2011 with Atlanta edging a 23-17 battle with Matt Ryan throwing for 312 yards, Roddy White hauling in 6 catches for 147 yards and Tony Gonzalez passing 13,000 receiving yards. The Falcons defense held Chris Johnson to only 13 yards on 12 carries.
Prior to that victory the Titans had held a 5-game streak over the Falcons.
Keys to Victory
The Titans overall #2 pick Marcus Mariota sits this one out with injury so 2nd year passer Zach Mettenburger goes up against Matt Ryan in the battle of the QB's. Mettenburger has a big arm but has gone 0-6 in his previous starts.
The key to victory for the Atlanta defense will be to put pressure on Mettenburger. They'll look to do this two ways, firstly by preventing the run and making the Titans one dimensional on offense. The Falcons should succeed on this part as they have impressed against the run and are currently ranked #1 in the NFL, conceding only 78 yards / game. If they can stop the run game they will need to achieve a ramp-up in the pass-rush. Atlanta have only 7 sacks to date and will look to Adrian Clayborn and Vic Beasley to get after the passer. The Titans O-line has conceded 20 sacks in it's first 5 games so is vulnerable, despite first rounders Taylor Lewan and Chance Warmack manning the left-side.
Mettenburger looked good in spells last year, but looked vulnerable when feeling the blitz. He's been prone to throwing the ball up for grabs when under pressure so Atlanta need to limit his time in the pocket when he drops back. He's a capable #2 if given time.
Key to victory on offense is to avoid the turnovers that blighted the Saints game. Atlanta have looked balanced and moved the ball well all season thus far. If they play mistake-free they should be good enough to put points up. The O is ranked #4 on the ground with Devonta Freeman having a breakthrough year. The passing game, ranked #8, will always be strong with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, assuming the O-line can keep Ryan upright.
Who to Stop, Who to Avoid?
TE Delanie Walker is possibly the Titans best receiver and the Falcons struggled to cover Ben Watson last Thursday. Possibly some bracket coverages on Walker will be dialled-up to take him out of the game.
An intriguing match-up on offense could be the troubled but ultra talented rookie Dorial Green Beckham going up against Robert Alford. With Harry Douglas out, it's likely Beckham will be the main benefactor of additional playing time. Alford has had his moments, both good and bad, so their battle could be an intriguing sideline on Sunday.
When the Falcons have the ball, it will be important to contain the Titans pass-rush. The Titans D is coached by Dick Lebeau who knows how to get after a QB and he has personnel to carry out his plans. Former Georgia Tech rusher Derrick Morgan can bring the heat and has 4.5 sacks in the first 5 games of 2015. Brian Orakpo has yet to burst out following his free agency move from Washington but remains a threat and Jurrell Casey posted double digit sacks in 2013. The Titans secondary is solid if not spectacular. Time will be the key to picking them apart or to the Titans ability to keep the Falcons in check successfully.
Old Faces, New Places
The Titans welcome back Guard Andy Levitre who was traded to Atlanta during pre-season. Levitre spent the last 2 years in Tennessee and will start on the much improved Falcons O-line. Atlanta could possibly face back-up Tight End Chase Coffman who spent two seasons in Atlanta, but will avoid a match-up with former WR Harry Douglas who departed in free agency after 7 seasons and 259 catches for the Dirty Birds and has been declared out of Sundays match-up.
Put Your Money on It
The Falcons start as 5.5 point favourites and I can only echo that spread.
Atlanta have been up-and-down in recent weeks, struggling to overcome the Redskins before being downed by the Saints. They need to bounce back from defeat with an improved performance as well as the road win in Tennessee.
The odds should be stacked against the Titans. With Mariota out and only one victory in their last 15 games they could be on a slide. However, one man out is another mans opportunity and this is Mettenburger's. A good performance here could put him in the shop window. You have to ask at what point does the pressure mount on Whistenhunt? The drafting of Mariota may have bought him a season but he's currently 3-18 in Tennessee. Atlanta's unpredictability ensures nothing can ever be a sure thing but I they should take this one by a score or more, covering the spread.
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