Nashville, Tennessee 25th-27th April 2019
It's that time of year again, as the NFL Draft approaches we all have a go at a mock draft impossibly attempting to predict the moves of each NFL Front Office. It's an interesting draft class that seems to lack the sure-fire undoubted elite superstar on first view but contains plenty of depth through the first 3 rounds, particularly along the defensive line, which could return one of the deepest classes in living memory.
As a refresh, simple rules - no trades allowed, enjoy!
1. Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)
When I began studying the 2019 draft class a few months ago and started fitting players to system and team fits, I had the following notes against the Cardinals "Weak roster, can't afford to miss on #1 pick, keep it simple and select the safest player - Bosa.N"; Roll on a few months and the Cardinals appear to be at complete odds with this logic.
A year on from trading up to select their apparent QB of the future Josh Rosen at #10 the Cardinals appear to be very really shopping Rosen with the intent to select Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray with this 1st pick. It's a huge decision to switch from Rosen after only one year. He didn't perform that badly and in fairness to Rosen, and as a warning to Murray, this roster needs further injections of talent around whoever takes snaps. It could all be an amazing ploy to deal down from #1 but right now everyone seems sold on the Cards credibility to make this switch. It's probably a move only a new coaching staff would dare gamble on.
Murray certainly seems an ideal fit in Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid system. Kingsbury at only 39 years old already has a college coaching resume that includes success with Case Keenum, Johnny Manziel, Baker Mayfield, Davis Webb and Patrick Mahomes. Murray should fit the Kingsbury template. He's a mobile playmaker with a strong arm, and whilst passing for 4,000 yards and rushing for 1,000 more in 2018, he became only the second player to achieve these milestones together in a single season (Clemson's DeShaun Watson in 2015 being the first).
The knocks on Murray are his height (5'10) and build (195lbs) and only a single year as a starter in college. He draws favourable comparisons to Russell Wilson in both stature and playing style but he'll face a challenge to adapt to more complex NFL defenses without a strong supporting cast around him and may need all that elusivness behind a far from secure pocket.
It will be interesting to see if anyone makes a play for Rosen, who incidentally I mocked to the Giants at #2 last year.
Pick Fact - A move for Murray would mark the first time ever a college has had starting QB's drafted #1 overall in consecutive years, following Cleveland's selection of Baker Mayfield in 2018.
2. San Francisco 49ers DE Nick Bosa (Ohio State)
The 49ers most pressing need would arguably be for a playmaking WR but going this way would be a reach of value for a #2 pick in this class. The pick of the 2019 draft class is probably on the D-line with the highest rated players DT Quinnen Williams and the edge rushers Josh Allen and Nick Bosa. The free agency signing of KC's Dee Ford could push me towards mocking a possible interior D-line pick but I can't overlook Nick Bosa.
Despite Bosa missing much of 2018 through injury he remains the most polished player in the draft class. A good fit in either a 4-3 or 3-4 defense, Bosa's high motor, aggressiveness and explosiveness will earn him an immediate starting slot.
He'll probably be compared throughout his pro career with his older brother Joey. Nick isn't as tall or big, but he's an impact player for the team that drafts him. The bloodlines are strong, Joey was selected #3 to San Diego in 2016 and father John was drafted #16 by Miami in 1987.
Nick will definitely become the third family member to become a 1st round draftee and I expect him to be selected earlier than both his brother and father
Pick Fact - The 49ers have only picked this high once previously in the last 54 years (2005 - QB Alex Smith)
3. New York Jets EDGE Josh Allen (Kentucky)
I see the Jets as potential trade down candidates as they don't pick again until Rd3 (#63). They are still in rebuild mode and in particular need to get some bodies in to protect Sam Darnold. Swapping their position here to gain draft capital makes a lot of sense.
However, narrowly losing out on Anthony Barr in free agency shows theJets hand towards their desire for an edge rusher. Nick Bosa and Josh Allen would likely be top of their draft board and if Arizona do go QB at #1 they're guaranteed one of those guys.
Nick Bosa may be the safer pick as an NFL prospect but Allen, a New Jersey native, shows tremendous upside and is reminiscent of Barr in his style of play.
Former Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome always used to extol the virtue of college production for pass rush prospects, and over the last 3 college seasons Allen has consistently produced (7 sacks in 2016, 7 sacks in 2017 and 17 sacks in 2018); Allen has improved his game year-on-year and is strong against the run and a very real pass rush threat.
Allen is a true example of the benefits of staying in college and not declaring early for the NFL draft. Allen attributed his decision to remain in college for his senior year down to the birth of his son Wesley before the 2018 draft. It's likely his breakout senior year elevated him from a mid-round propsect to a top 5 overall pick.
4. Oakland Raiders DT Quinnen Williams (Alabama)
The Raiders first draft under the pairing of Chucky Gruden and Mike Mayock and they hold three 1st round picks. This is the stuff that Mayock must have dreamt about when imagining himself as a GM in the league.
The safest mock in the world should see the Raiders addressing their pass rush with at least one of these 1st round picks. 2018 saw a lowly 13 sack season for the entire Raiders defense (no other team recorded less than 30 sacks) with a league low 48 QB hits. Their 13 team sacks were a total matched or bettered by 11 individual defensive players on their own in 2018 including traded away Khalil Mack with 12.5 sacks in Chicago.
The position pick is a no brainer, it's just at what point the Raiders hit the pick(s); I think if either Bosa or Allen remain on the board at #4 then edge rusher is the pick. They could even make a move to #3 with the accommodating Jets to ensure they get one of the top two guys. However, my mock is a no trade mock so if both are gone, then it's tough to call.
I think the Raiders may have to gamble slightly on the 3rd edge guy or re-focus position knowing they have further picks later in this round to re-address the edge. I think Quinnen Williams is an option, bringing production (18 TFL's, 7 sacks in 2018) and Pro Bowl potential but I wrestle with this choice as it's not one of the Raiders many obvious needs.
Maybe the Raiders stay edge with Rashaun Gary or Montez Sweat but both guys figure to be mid first round picks or maybe Mayock goes with his own position and looks for secondary help via Greedy Williams or Deandre Baker but both of these feel too early also. The value is with Quinnen Williams at #4, who some draft pundits think is the best player in the draft. Big, strong and fast, Williams has the potential to be a destructive interior force.
Pick Fact - The Raiders owned three 1st round picks in the 1988 draft too. Their first pick (at #6) wasn't a bad one.... they selected Hall-of-Fame WR Tim Brown
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ILB Devin White (LSU)
A lot of the talk in Tampa is about the hire of QB whisperer Bruce Arians to resurrect the career of Jameis Winston. The Bucs would do well to ensure they can keep Winston upright and offer a ground game to lend support and there's a lot of logic to the Bucs looking to address the O-line.
However, the Bucs feature in the NFC South and battle Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and.... ah well, Cam Newton, but the point is Tampa would be wise to focus on improving their defense, ranked 27th overall in 2018 and 31st in points conceded. Certainly an influx of cover corners or getting pressure on opposing QB's would help. I initially mocked DT Ed Oliver here to help provide pressure but there seems to be a general consensus away from this move.
A lot of mock drafts have the Bucs looking at Devin Smith as an immediate replacement for Kwon Alexander who left for San Francisco. It's a logical pick and whilst fairly high for an interior LB in the modern NFL, what makes me lean towards this pick is a number of factors.
Firstly, the LB depth isn't great in this draft class beyond Smith and Michigan's Devin Bush, both of whom will likely be 1st round picks.
Secondly, Tampa figure to switch to a base 3-4 under new D Co-Ordinator Todd Bowles making the LB position more important to Tampa than previously. Finally, the player himself, White will be a 21-yr old rookie, but with two consecutive 120+ tackle seasons in college.
Some scout comparisons compare White to Ray Lewis, slightly undersized but great instincts, aggression and leadership. If Tampa pick Smith here, they've got a Day One starter immediately
Pick Fact - The Buccaneers have not selected a LB in the 1st round since 1995. That year, they held two first round picks and both draftees ended up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame (DT Warren Sapp picked at #12 and LB Derrick Brooks at #28)
6. New York Giants DE Clelin Ferrell (Clemson)
The Giants own a league high 12 picks in this draft including #6 and #17 in the 1st round. This feels like a QB pick the Giants should make but possibly won't. The franchise still seems to believe that Eli Manning can play at a high level but the clocks ticking and he won't have OBJ elevating his play in 2019. Manning is due to earn a whopping $23.2m in 2019 so the noises coming out of New York could even support a contract extension to reduce his cap hit.
I see potential in the 2019 QB class but I see no sure fire hit. Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock and Daniel Jones all have honourable mentions but with caveats against their names. The Giants skipped QB's in a stronger 2018 class, so maybe they wait again? Or maybe they get their second chance with one of the 2018 class and get on the phone to the Cardinals enquiring about Josh Rosen?
The Giants could easily go QB here but they also need replacements at every level on defense and if they feel Eli remains their guy maybe they continue the run on d-linemen.
There are a number of ways they could go, but I assume one of the key draft targets is to address the defensive line following the departures of Jason Pierre Paul and Olivier Vernon in consecutive seasons. I have the Giants turning to the National Champion Clemson Tigers and DE Clelin Ferrell.
Giants GM Dave Gettlemen is known for valuing on-field performance ahead of measurables and Ferrell fits the mould of better football player than athlete. He's posted 27 sacks over the last 3 years at Clemson (6 in 2016, 9.5 in 2017 and 11.5 sacks in 2018) and is an every down player who is equally comfortable defending the run or rushing the passer.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars TE T.J. Hockenson (Iowa)
The Jags should benefit from the early run on defensive players and the signing of Nick Foles means they could have first pick of offensive players here at #7. The needs are clear, better play from their o-line and some playmakers for Foles to distribute to.
Jawaan Taylor looks a highly likely pick, earmarked to improve the line as someone who excels in run blocking.
However, I'm also considering a braver pick of Iowa TE T.J Hockenson who reminds me of Giants legend Mark Bavaro. Hockenson is a throwback who is a good in-line blocker who will only improve as he fills out and has decent hands and separation speed that should see him become a day one starter. I think Taylor is the more likely real pick but I can't ignore how integral to Foles success a top end TE has been. Hockenson is a real keeper in this draft.
8. Detroit Lions DT Ed Oliver (Houston)
The Lions have already indicated this pick could be up for offers. Assuming they remain at #8 the most obvious selection would likely be CB. The Lions have Darius Slay well set and spent a large amount bringing in Justin Coleman to be the slot corner. However, Teez Tabor (Rd2 2017) has not really panned out enough and competition at CB2 would seem likely.
Likewise the Lions seem to have a perennial issue of depth at LB and their last All Pro LB was Chris Spielman back in 1991. Should Devin White fall this far I'd imagine Detroit to be less forthcoming on a trade down. That said, my mock does not allow for traded picks and I have White off the board.
The Lions allowed oft-injured Ziggy Ansah to depart town and whilst this is not a weak position for Detroit I do feel that GM Bob Quinn is looking for a game changer. That man could be Houston's Ed Oliver. I can see Oliver going sooner but I'd be surprised if he makes it out of the top 10. Oliver may be undersized but Aaron Donald has paved the way for this type of DT. Whilst not as productive in college as Donald or as technically sound (yet), Oliver is aggressive with exceptional quickness and agility. He posted 54 tackles for loss over his 3 college seasons and he's that athletic that some scouts suggest he could play LB. Due to his size though he can get eaten up by blocks and did not have a good second half of 2018 with reports of a fall-out with the coaching staff. He's a good example of a boom/bust draft pick and the enticing thoughts of an Aaron Donald type in the middle of the Detroit line is probably too hard to ignore.
9. Buffalo Bills OT Jawaan Taylor (Florida)
Last year the Bills found their QB and now begin to build around him. Whilst they need to provide weapons they also need to keep him upright and take pressure off him with a viable rushing attack.
The Bills could go in many ways here, but my logic is thus - the Bills need to avoid laying all the offense on Josh Allen. They have viable backs in LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore but they need to begin opening up holes.
Enter Jawaan Taylor who may not be the premier OT of the draft, but looks to be the best run blocking OT in the class. Taylor is likely a RT starter, is large and powerful and a 3-year starter in college. He has had some off-field challenges with weight and team rules, so there's flags that could bump him further down, but all of the knocks on his game are coachable. This pick at #9 is by no means a cert but he's a powerful body pusher who will move people out of lanes in the run game. The Bills need this type of player.
10. Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock (Missouri)
I certainly believe the Broncos could be considering QB here despite a bold claim by GM John Elway that new signing Joe Flacco is entering his prime. There are always plenty of rumours around QB's when Elway is around and there's a fair few about his admiration of Missouri's Drew Lock. I'm not quite sure an Elway approval is necessarily a good thing based on his previous history - Paxton Lynch anyone? However, I do think that there are enough questions around Flacco, and the Broncos depth chart behind him (Kevin Hogan and Garrett Grayson) is thin enough to expend a pick somewhere during the draft, so why not here?
As a three and a half year starter in Missouri, Lock is probably the most experienced QB in this class with over 12,000 passing yards and 99 TD's for the Tigers. He also owns one of the stronger arms too, with a quick release and owns good size and athleticism. There are accuracy questions around Lock (56.9% college career completion rate). His footwork and mechanics are untidy and contribute to the accuracy issues but he has shown improvement each year in college in this respect. If these flaws can't be corrected Lock isn't worth the pick at 10, but he does have upside because of that arm.
If the Broncos go another direction, I could see O-line being a focus, particularly on the interior. I think generally #10 is a little high for a Guard or Center from this class, hence the bold QB decision.
Pick Fact - The Broncos are one of only four NFL teams to have never owned the #1 overall pick of the NFL draft. Technically I suppose they did acquire John Elway from the Colts after he was selected #1 in 1983 and demanded a trade
11. Cincinnati Bengals QB Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State)
If the Bengals are in this position I think they'll be surprised and delighted to be able to select arguably the best available pure passer in the draft. The fact that Haskins would remain in Ohio State for the Bengals should only help stir up the fanbase.
Haskins has a rocket arm and leadership skills. His 50 TD's in 2018 with only 8 int's gives Haskins momentum entering the draft. The Bengals however need to weigh this against his limited experience as a 1-year starter on a talent laden team. At least he would not be under immediate pressure to start and could possibly sit a year behind Andy Dalton.
It's little coincidence that in this situation I have the two first time NFL head coaches mocked with QB selections. Both can begin to build with their new QB's in place.
Pick Fact - If the mocked pick is correct it will be the second consecutive season the Bengals have reached out locally to Ohio St for their first draft pick (C Billy Price in 2018)
12. Green Bay Packers TE Noah Fant (Iowa)
Two tight end's selected in the top 12 picks? Two tight end's from the same college? It's probably a crazy mock but I think this is actually a distinct possibility. The Packers need to give Aaron Rodgers more weapons. Davante Adams is one of the best WR1's in the league and whilst WR2 is up for grabs I think GB will entrust this to the bevy of young draftees from 2018. Whilst Jimmy Graham had one of the best statistical years of a TE for GB in a long while, he's not the player he was. Rodgers uses the TE very effectively in Green Bay and I think the position is certainly in play here.
I love T.J Hockenson and I think the Packers would too if he's still on the board. However, if Hockenson has gone then Noah Fant actually gives them an even bigger weapon in the passing game, with the speed to be a true vertical threat down the seams. He doesn't compare to Hockenson as an all round TE but is a better blocker than people credit him for and used correctly in Green Bay, Rodgers would have a true top-end athlete to go to.
There's probably a good argument that this is too early for TE and it's supported by a bit of depth in the class via Irv Smith and the Pack having a further pick at #30. However, I'm going to go out on a limb with the Fant pick.
I think the Packers need to add to their offensive line at some point, particularly the interior positions, but I think it possibly unlikely here at #12. Similarly, safety and LB look need areas but again too, the Pack will probably look to address later. Edge would seem to be a good option on draft class but the Pack have spent big here in free agency so maybe not.
Pick Fact - The Packers have not selected an offensive player at a skilled position in the 1st round since 2005 (QB Aaron Rodgers)
13. Miami Dolphins EDGE Montez Sweat (Missisippi State)
I initially envisaged Miami taking a QB here after allowing Ryan Tannehill to depart and signing Ryan Fitzpatrick. The signing is only a stopgap which will provide the Fitzmagic one week and a batch of turnovers the next. However, the talk out of Miami indicates they're considering holding off until the perceived stronger QB class of 2020. The Dolphins are still doing their due diligence and could move in this direction but I've a feeling they hold off.
The Dolphins need to re-energise the fanbase, and who better than Montez Sweat? There are not many more intriguing prospects in this entire draft class than Sweat. Double digit sacks in both his years at Mississippi State were followed by a Senior Bowl where he was arguably the top prospect on show. Sweat then blew up the combine with a fastest ever 40yd dash for a defensive lineman, running a 4.41 at 252 lbs, a time which would have made him the 3rd fastest RB and 8th fastest WR at the combine!
Sweat is a natural pass rusher and I envisage this will be his main task during his rookie year in Miami. He'll need to get stronger to earn a full-time role but has enormous potential. The Dolphins seem to be in rebuild mode and can be patient utilising Sweat as a designated pass rusher in year one. There are a few red flags to note though. Sweat was on his 3rd college team after transfers from Michigan State to JUCO then onto the Bulldogs. Details of transfers could hit his draft stock. Overall though, Sweat has massive upside but not without the risk. A classic boom or bust pick.
14. Atlanta Falcons DT Christian Wilkins (Clemson)
The dreamer in me thinks the Falcons will strike a deal with the Jets, move up to #3 and come away with the best interior D-lineman in the draft, Quinnen Williams. However I don't see this a high probability and my mock draft does not allow for trades anyhow.
The Falcons may therefore consider OT with Jonah Williams as a system fit possibility. There's a vacancy at RT following the release of Ryan Schraeder, so competition for Ty Sambrailo would not hurt. Jonah Williams also offers potential inside at Guard too, a position the Falcons have been struggling to fill for a few seasons now.
However, DQ is ultimately a defensive coach and the Falcons likely can't overlook that urgent need to improve both pass rush and the soft under belly against the run. Atlanta arguably needs an edge rusher the most, so could consider someone like Brian Burns but the immediate value here is probably on the interior to provide help to Grady Jarrett and a risk mitigation step should the Falcons fail to come to a long term agreement with the franchise tagged Jarrett.
The Falcons may take a look at Rashan Gary but my preference would be for one of the feared Clemson line - Christian Wilkins. He's a freaky athlete for the position and the Falcons don't shy away from these mobile, undersized DT's. Wilkins has played both end and tackle and even stand-up edge rusher. He's improved each year at Clemson and turned in a very consistent 2018 with 14 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. He would fit into the Atlanta rotation immediately alongside Jarrett, Deadrin Senat and Jack Crawford.
I don't discount the option of selecting another Clemson lineman either. Dexter Lawrence is a big man who would be a space eater in the middle, fortifying the run defense. However, he's possibly not an every down player and in a pass heavy league there's likely more value in someone such as Wilkins who can play every down and is a high character player in the locker room.
The more leftfield selection could be to fortify the cornerback position with Georgia's DeAndre Baker or LSU's Greedy Williams, but commonsense tells me that Atlanta follow the depth of this years draft and take the 7th defensive lineman so far here.
15. Washington Redskins EDGE Brian Burns (Florida State)
The Case Keenum signing is nothing more than a stopgap and the future of Alex Smith is unclear after horrific injury. The Redskins will be doing their homework on the likes of Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Daniel Jones and others in the event they're available here. The 2020 QB class appears far stronger and if the Skins feel similar then they could address other areas rather than a developmental pick here.
In terms of the other positions I think they'll attempt to add a big play WR at some point and someone such as D.K Metcalf would come into play in the 1st round. I also suspect a cover corner such as Greedy Williams will be high on the Skins draft board.
However, I'm continuing the theme of the run on defensive linemen and edge rushers with the Skins jumping in to replace free agent departure Preston Smith who left for Green Bay with their top ranked edge rusher, someone such as Brian Burns or Rashan Gary.
Whilst I think Gary is the better rounded defender, Burns fits more into a 3-4 than Gary. Whilst Burns is on the lean side and can sometimes be overmatched, he owns elite get-off speed (10 sacks and 15 tackles for loss in 2018) and should find immediate playing time as a pass rush specialist.
16. Carolina Panthers DE/DT Rashan Gary (Michigan)
I suspect the biggest needs on this roster are now on offensive and defensive lines. Despite ongoing issues with poor blocking the Panthers still managed to dial up an impressive rushing attack in 2018 and they may be happy to paper over the cracks and not spend a first round pick on the position to allow them to take advantage of the strong defensive line class of 2019.
The retirement of Julius Peppers after 17 seasons creates additional needs and the free agency signing of Bruce Irvin is probably only a stopgap solution. I have the Panthers addressing this by selecting Michigan's Rashan Gary. He's something of an enigma with top 10 talent with strength and burst and impressive initial quickness that should all translate into a more dominant pass rusher (but only 3.5 sacks in 2018). However, his overall game should see him still selected before the latter part of the first round. He can play all along the D-line and is a very solid run defender too. The talent is there in abundance if it can be harnessed consistently.
17. New York Giants (via Cleveland Browns) WR D.K Metcalf (Missisippi)
The Giants second selection in the 1st round comes at #17 courtesy of the Odell Beckham Jr / Olivier Vernon trade deal. With my mock already securing a D-lineman I've not used rocket science to arrive at an OBJ replacement. The Giants already have some weapons courtesy of Evan Engram and Golden Tate but they lack a player to blow the tops off defenses.
D.K Metcalf has that rare size (6'3), speed (4.33) and strength (x27 bench press) combination that promises tremendous upside. He's still raw as a receiver having played only 21 games in college over 3 years due to injuries, though he did average over 18 yards per catch.
Whilst he develops it may be that Metcalf operates as a bit of a one-trick pony in his rookie year. But if the Giants can harness his skill set the potential is endless.
Of course QB remains a consideration here and I still have Duke's Daniel Jones on the board, whose college HC David Cutcliffe just so happened to be Eli Manning's HC at Ole Miss and Peyton Manning's OC at Tennessee.
18. Minnesota Vikings OT/OG Jonah Williams (Alabama)
I think that the Vikings are another team considering the trenches on either side of the ball. They may target a replacement for free agency loss Sheldon Richardson or address the interior of their offensive line which was arguably their weakest position in 2018.
Should the Vikes choose the offensive side of the ball, then I'm predicting they take a long look in the direction of Alabama's Jonah Williams. A 3-year starter at tackle in college, Williams could possibly play tackle or guard in the NFL. Whilst he didn't blow up the combine with elite athleticism, that's just not his game. He's a solid and intelligent football player who should be in the league a long time once the time whoever drafts him decides on his best position. I think he's good enough to play tackle but some may view him more suited as a guard.
19. Tennessee Titans WR Marquise Brown (Oklahoma)
Free agency addressed some of the pressing issues at guard (Roger Saffold) and an edge rush replacement for retired Brian Orakpo (Cameron Wake) and yet the Titans could still be looking to get younger on the defensive line and invest a pick here.
However, this is Marcus Mariota's contract year and it could be make or break for him with the Titans acquiring Ryan Tannehill from the Dolphins as back-up insurance. In a move to improve the league's 29th rated pass offense the Titans should be looking to add weapons. 2017 1st round pick Corey Davis is showing signs of becoming a WR1 and they spent heavily on Tampa's Adam Humphries to man the slot, now they ideally need a WR2 who can provide a deep threat.
If the Titans do go in this direction I think they have two obvious options on the board - either the tall, physical N'Keal Harry or the undersized speedster, Marquise "Hollywood" Brown. The cousin of new Raider Antonio Brown, Marquise size (5'9 / 166lbs) will put off some teams but anyone who needs a true deep threat will give him serious consideration. Brown has received scouting comparisons with DeSean Jackson and surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in both his seasons at Oklahoma, averaging over 18 yards per catch. The precedent of success for talented smaller receivers has already been set by Jackson and the likes of Tyreek Hill.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers CB Greedy Williams (LSU)
The Steelers benched 2016 1st round pick Artie Burns midseason and are likely to address the secondary early in the draft. Their choice here is likely between Greedy Williams, Deandre Baker and
Byron Murphy. I think Williams shows the greatest upside, and at 6'2 he fits the modern mould of lanky press corner. He has the perfect blend of size, speed and athleticism to prosper. However, Williams would not be a pick without risk. With the upside comes a lower floor. I've heard the knock on Williams for his lack of enthusiasm for tackling, particularly in run support and he'll need to be a little more disciplined with his technique in the pro's where the level of talent is higher and he won't be able to rely so much on his natural talents.
If the Steelers go a different direction I suppose they could look at the WR position but I think they're likely to give last years 2nd round pick James Washington a shot at WR2 first and also signed Donte Moncrief in free agency, so my likely alternative pick would be someone such as LB Devin Bush as the Steelers are still yet to fill the void left by Ryan Shazier.
21. Seattle Seahawks S Taylor Rapp (Washington)
The free agency loss of turnover machine slot corner Justin Coleman to Detroit and former All Pro Safety Earl Thomas to the Ravens possibly points to the Seahawks bolstering their secondary early in the draft.
Defensive line is also a possibility. Whilst they got 13 sacks out of Frank Clark, the rest of the rotation were largely anonymous and Clark would benefit from working opposite a viable edge threat.
The other option could still be offensive line, which whilst improved in 2018 remains a perennial issue for the Seahawks, particularly at Guard. Protecting their $140million investment in Russell Wilson would make some sense.
In my mock I'm addressing the secondary with the pick of S Taylor Rapp, the local boy from Washington. He has decent size and speed but not the biggest or the fastest, but he's the kind of intelligent player who lasts a long time in the league. He's a sure open field tackler and reads the game well. He can also lay the wood when required to in run support. Whilst he's not Earl Thomas, he would be an upgrade over the incumbents and has the ability to play either free or strong safety.
Pick Fact - The Seahawks have only selected two players in total in the first round of the draft since 2012 (G Germain Ifedi in 2016 and RB Rashaad Penny in 2018)
22. Baltimore Ravens WR N'Keal Harry (Arizona State)
The Ravens lost both their edge rushers in free agency with Za'Darius Smith heading to Green Bay and Terrell Suggs joining Arizona. Matt Judon who weighed in with 6 sacks also heads into a contract year. The Ravens also lost ILB C.J Mosley to the Jets in a blockbuster deal and have a positional need at LG and will eventually need to replace 35-yr old RG Marshall Yanda.
However, all these needs are outweighed by the dire need at WR. Right now, former Saint Willie Snead figures as WR1 and he's no more than a WR3 at best on the majority of NFL rosters. The
Ravens don't own a 2nd round pick and don't pick again until #85 so I'd imagine they'd address their weakest position as soon as possible - and probably with a later pick too. The Ravens will likely be looking for a deep threat to replace John Brown and will need whoever they select to be an active blocker for their diverse run-first offense.
My thoughts are towards N'Keal Harry or A.J Brown. I think Harry has the edge in terms of the Ravens type of WR. He's physically imposing at 6'3 and 213lbs and displays vertical ability and athleticism to fit the new Ravens offense. He's a one man highlight reel with some acrobatic catches and shows some surprising wow moments in the open field for a receiver his size. He's continued to show improvement throughout his college career and whilst not an immediate WR1 has the potential to grow into that role fast for Baltimore.
23. Houston Texans OT Greg Little (Mississippi)
With the Texans giving up a league worst 62 sacks (tied for 5th most all-time) it should hardly be a surprise that the Texans focus a pick or two on improving their offensive line. The other option could be a focus on improving speed in the secondary as Houston gave up 13 completions of over 40 yards (29th in the league).
However, the over arching need to protect Deshaun Watson and improve their run game is just too great in my opinion. One option could be Oklahoma's Cody Ford who has experience at RT but possibly projects to kick inside in the NFL. Andre Dillard is another option for LT who excels in the pass game but may need to step up his run blocking. Instead, I have the Texans turning to Greg Little. He's a big guy who played in all 36 games for Mississippi over the last 3 years, the majority of which at LT. It helps that he looks a lot like former Texan LT Duane Brown (selected #26 overall back in 2008) with his large frame and quick feet and has future Pro Bowl potential if a good OL coach can improve his hand use.
Pick Fact - Greg Little was LT for a certain Kyler Murray in high school, many project Murray to go #1 overall in this years draft
24. Oakland Raiders (via Dallas Cowboys) CB Byron Murphy (Washington)
The second of the Raiders three 1st round picks comes courtesy of the Amari Cooper trade to the Cowboys. The Raiders have plenty of holes to fill as Mike Mayock restructures the roster. An edge rusher remains priority but there are positions up for grabs all over the defense.
With the top edge guys off the board but depth available in the class I have the Raiders switching to a position that Mayock knows well. The Raiders conceded a league high 8.2 yards per pass attempt in
2018 and at the combine Mayock spoke at length of looking for fast physical guys.
Enter Byron Murphy, a CB with only 20 college starts but who performed well on the big stage against Washington State, Stanford and Ohio State. Mayock was keen on Denzel Ward who the Browns selected at #4 last year and Murphy's style of play compares similarly as a slightly bigger version of the admired Ward.
25. Philadelphia Eagles OT Andre Dillard (Washington State)
The Eagles could go a number of ways here at #25. They're in a good position roster-wise and can select the best player available rather than reach for a position of need.
In terms of considerations, the Eagles could target defense as the secondary suffered with injuries in 2018 to the likes of Darby, Mills, McLeod and Jones and an eventual successor to Malcolm Jenkins will need to be sought at some point. The biggest hit to the defense during free agency was likely Jordan Hicks, leaving the Eagles apparently short of a 3-down LB.
However, I'm going with the highest rated guy I have on my board as there are some drivers that could help influence this pick. The Eagles have Jason Peters playing on a one year deal at 37 years old and there have been offseason rumours that Jason Kelce had been entertaining retirement. Brandon Brooks is also returning from a bad achilles injury and LG could be upgraded from Isaac Seumalo. With all these things in mind, I have the Eagles selecting Andre Dillard of Washington. To me is the best natural pass blocker in this draft. A 4-year starter at LT in college, Dillard isn't yet the most accomplished run blocker but has fast feet and great balance.
Athleticism and the ability to block downfield has long been a strength of the Eagles O-line and whilst Dillard will need to adjust from Washington's wide stance O-line he has all the tools to play either Tackle position
26. Indianapolis Colts S Deionte Thompson (Alabama)
In terms of positional needs, I think the Colts could be looking for WR help with both Devin Funchess and Chester Rogers WR2 and WR3 respectively heading into contract years. TE depth would seem strong but Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle also both in final years of contracts. Similarly all of the starters on the Colts defensive line are over 30 and the D-line depth in this draft will surely see an Indy pick here in the first 3 rounds.
The Colts are also considering upgrading their secondary, we know they had interest in Giants S Landon Collins but were unwilling to match the Redskins significant offer. Someone such as Deionte Thompson or Johnathan Abram could be under consideration or the Colts could look at CB to provide competition for Quincy Wilson and I still have DeAndre Baker and Rock Ya-Sin available here.
Pick Fact - The Colts 2018 draft class was one for the ages. It was the first draft class to contain two First Team All Pro's (Quenton Nelson and Darius Leonard) since the Chicago Bears in 1965 (Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus) whilst also providing another starter and three further significant contributors to the Colts playoff run.
27. Oakland Raiders EDGE Jaylon Ferguson (Louisiana Tech)
We're now at the Raiders third pick of the draft with 7 teams still yet to make a selection. They've holes still to fill so it's hard to be sure exactly which ones they'll plug in which order. They have the luxury of swinging for the fences a little bit with an abundance of picks but I'm sure Mayock will want to maximise the contribution from his first ever draft class.
The Raiders have a glaring need for an edge rusher that they've yet to add so I'm sure they'll continue to consider their draft board and their evaluations of edge rushers.
So what would I do here? I'd consider Cody Ford with a view to pushing him inside to Guard. I'd also consider RB potentially as Isaiah Crowell is only a serviceable option. TE seems a weak spot too, the Raiders have talked up former WR turned TE Darren Waller as a seam stretcher but he's largely unproven with only 18 career catches in 4 years since being drafted by Baltimore, during which time he's also served two suspensions for breaches of the leagues substance abuse policy.
However, as I haven't mocked the Raiders as yet addressing the pass rush I think I have to make that move before the end of the first round. I've two intriguing prospects left on my board with potential Rd1 grades, the prolific Jaylon Ferguson who recorded 17 sacks in 2018 and 45 career sacks in his 4 year college career making him the all-time FBS sack leader or the non-stop energy of Jachai Polite who posted 11 sacks for Florida in 2018. Despite a poor pro day I think the Raiders go with the production of Ferguson here but either guy will contribute for the Raiders in 2019.
Pick Fact - More than 27% of Jaylon Ferguson's college career tackles were for losses
28. Los Angeles Chargers DT Jerry Tillery (Notre Dame)
The Chargers are in win now mode with Philip Rivers still playing at a high level at 37 years old. It would surprise me if the Chargers spent a 1st rounder on offense here, but I suppose an upgrade on Sam Tevi at RT wouldn't hurt.
In reality I think the Chargers will supply Gus Bradley with a playmaker on the defense. If the Chargers do address the interior D-Line they could consider Dexter Lawrence as a run stopper or a host of versatile DT's such as Jerry Tillery, Dre'Mont Jones or Jeffery Simmons which may in turn help the edge rush duo of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa considerably.
If they consider LB then the instinctive Devin Bush could be in play. I think they could also consider a rangy FS to allow the impressive Derwin James to play closer to the line of scrimmage.
The playoff defeat to the Patriots power football probably left a mark with the inability to pressure Tom Brady very noticeable. With this in mind, I have the Chargers selecting the intelligent, athletic and speedy DT Jerry Tillery from Notre Dame. I don't think he's scheme dependent, he'd fit as a 4-3 DT or a 3-4 DE. He's another senior who benefited from a final year in college, Tillery posted 8 sacks and 3 forced fumbles in 2018 which could push him into 1st round consideration.
29. Kansas City Chiefs CB DeAndre Baker (Georgia)
The number 1 rated offense and 31st rated defense. The Chiefs have allowed a number of big-name / high-price defensive players leave this offseason (S Eric Berry, DE Dee Ford, OLB Justin Houston, CB Steven Nelson, S Eric Murray amongst others). The Chiefs also moved on from defensive co-ordinator Bob Sutton with the hire of Steve Spagnuolo. It's basically rebuild mode for this defense whilst implementing a new system, so where better to rebuild than via the draft?
I think all defensive positions are likely up for grabs as potential picks and wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs add players to that front four. Spagnuolo's main success was with the Giants utilising a heavy rotation of speedy linemen who could create pressure.
However, I'm turning first attention to the secondary. The Chiefs pass defense was consistently picked on last season and with Berry and Nelson departing it only adds to my logic that the Chiefs address both CB and S at some point in the draft.
So in the first round, I have the Chiefs selecting DeAndre Baker from Georgia. He's very competitive and although not a burner (4.52 40 at the combine) or with great size, he excels in the physical elements of the game such as press coverage and run support. He was a starter for nearly 3 years for the Bulldogs and has experience as both LCB and RCB.
Pick Fact - DeAndre Baker has not allowed a TD pass against him since 2017, posting 5 interceptions in the same period.
30. Green Bay Packers LB Devin Bush Jr. (Michigan)
With the Packers second pick of the first round they could continue to provide weapons for Aaron Rodgers or even draft a potential successor. However, I think it more likely they continue the defensive overhaul that commenced in free agency.
I have the Pack selecting Michigan's Devin Bush Jr. Some may class Bush as undersized for LB but he brings speed and tenacity to the position. He's consistently produced for Michigan these last 2 seasons (102 tackles and 5 sacks in 2017, 80 tackles and 5 sacks in 2018)
Bush should fight himself into the starting line-up early in Green Bay and it's a position of need for the Pack where they've failed on a succession plan for Clay Matthews and Nick Perry.
Also influencing this pick is that it doesn't seem a deep LB class so the Pack would be wise to grab Bush here.
Pick Fact - Devin Bush Jr's father was selected #26 overall by the Atlanta Falcons back in 1995
31. Los Angeles Rams OT/OG Cody Ford (Oklahoma)
The Rams have a pretty strong roster but surely have to address the offensive line early in the draft. LT Andrew Whitworth considered retirement before returning, LG Roger Saffold left in free agency, C John Sullivan was not retained and I'm not sold on the performance of RG Austin Blythe either.
The Rams options here could include Dalton Risner, Garrett Bradbury or my chosen option Cody Ford. It's possible Ford could be considered a possibility at Tackle (14 starts at RT in college) but at 6'3 that tends to be a little short for the position. What Ford does possess is size (around 330 lbs) strength, agility and footwork and would ideally be suited to play Guard and likely to excel as a power run blocker that would fit with the Rams.
Should the Rams draft an alternative position the money would likely be in the secondary, with Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters in contract years and Talib and Eric Weddle 33 and 34 years old respectively.
32. New England Patriots TE Irv Smith (Alabama)
It's hard use the words "team needs" on a franchise that has appeared in 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls but I think the Patriots areas to address early on should be to provide more targets in the passing game for Tom Brady. The Patriots allowed Corrdarelle Patterson and Chris Hogan to depart in free agency, Josh Gordon is indefinitely suspended (again) and Julian Edelman will be 33 before the season starts. To this end, a selection at WR makes a lot of sense.
The Patriots will also be hoping to improve their pass rush and run defense so an edge defender and LB remain possibilities and I could see someone like Dexter Lawrence or Jeffrey Simmons being drafted. They're the sort of players the Patriots seem to have a lot of success with harnessing.
However, the Patriots also lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement and Dwayne Allen has been generally ineffective. Whilst it's impossible to replace Gronk, my final pick of this years mock is a nod to his departure, as I have the Pats pulling the trigger on TE Irv Smith. With only 2 years college experience, Smith had a breakout 2018 with 710 receiving yards at 16.1 yards per catch. He was a field stretching option for the Tide in 2018. He also has the potential to become a more than capable run blocker which he'd need to be within the Patriots offense.
Pick Fact - The Patriots have never drafted a WR in the 1st round under Bill Belichick (Terry Glenn was the last WR selected in the 1st round, back in 1996)
