Atlanta Falcons NFL Draft 2015
Major Requirements
- DE/OLB pass rusher
- Running Back
- Offensive Line
Upgrades & Depth
- Tight End
- Wide Receiver
- Secondary
- Linebacker
The pass-rush
The Falcons failure to address the pass-rush via personnel or scheme ultimately led to the dismissal of Mike Smith. Since 2012 the team has ranked no higher than 28th in terms of defensive sacks during the regular season and posted a measly 22 sacks during 2014 (equal with Justin Houston's individual effort in KC). The Falcons have continually failed to address the pass-rush via the draft in recent years. Only Rashede Hageman (2nd round, 2014) has been drafted in the first 3 rounds of any draft spanning 2011-14, and efforts in free agency have largely been ineffective in improving the dire pass-rush too.
Thomas Dimitroff remains but with a weakened role, Scott Pioli now heads up scouting and 1st year HC Dan Quinn holds overall say on final roster. They've signed Adrian Clayborn on a 1-yr deal from Tampa Bay in free agency and Quinn has brought in former Seahawk O'Brien Schofield as a role player, but they still need more help.
The #1 aim of the draft should be to provide impetus to the pass-rush. The Falcons pick at #8 so will like have at least 1 of the top 3 pass-rushers still on the board. This is the most important draft pick since Matt Ryan and they need to hit a home-run on a pass-rusher.
The candidates
Dante Fowler - Florida
Pro: Versatile, fast with long arms. Compares favourably with Khalil Mack from 2014 class.
Con: Pass-rush technique requires improvement, relies too much on his physical skills;
Verdict: Likely gone before #8, will be high on the Falcons board.
Shane Ray - Missouri
Pro: Explosive power, tough with fast hands. 3rd in nation with 14.5 sacks and 22 TFL's in 2014. Versatile enough to play as DE or pass-rush 3-4;
Con: Not the longest arms, can get pegged by bigger tackles;
Verdict: Good fit for any system, thus will be attractive to many teams and could be gone before #8.
Vic Beasley - Clemson
Pro: Explosive former RB and possibly best pass rusher in class (33 sacks in final 39 games in college). Tore up the combine. Boyhood Falcons fan.
Con: May need more power in pro's without sacrificing speed. Some questions on competitive nature.
Verdict: Ideally suited as a 3-4 rusher, Beasley will be a popular pick if he's on the board at #8.
Randy Gregory - Nebraska
Pro: Tall, long arms, productive. Room to add power. Stronger than expected. Can play on line or up.
Con: Positive drug tests are major red flag. Can be manhandled by bigger linemen.
Verdict: Would have been top 10 pick but drug test omissions could see a slide. A pick you're not sure you want your team to risk but would hate your rivals to draft. If the 3 guys above are gone at #8 it's going to be a very tough decision for the Front Office.
Other Options : Bud Dupree, Arik Armisted;
Late Round Sleeper :
Max Valles - Virginia
Pro: Tall, rangy. Led team with 9 sacks in '14. 13 batted passes last 2 yrs. Can play hand down or up.
Con: Sack totals skewed by plays where didn't beat lineman. Raw and slow to process at times. More athlete than football player right now.
Verdict: Would be development option but an interesting choice if he's still available in the later rounds. Experts have him going anywhere between Rds 3-7.
Running Back
The Falcons seem high on 2nd-yr RB Devonta Freeman who will see his role expand (65 carries, 30 receptions as a rookie) in his sophomore year, but he may be more suited to a complementary role than the workhorse the current depth chart indicates. The only back-up to Freeman with any NFL experience is special teams demon Antone Smith who only has 29 career carries to his name.
The ideal scenario here is the availability of Todd Gurley early in Round 2. No RB has been selected in the 1st round since 2012 but it's highly likely two players (Gurley and Melvin Gordon) could be taken within the first 32 picks. The unknown with Gurley is whether injury concerns ward teams away from spending a 1st round pick. The Georgia bulldog would be a popular pick in Atlanta and is a top 5 talent but coming off an ACL tear. Assuming the high likelihood that Gurley is unavailable, it will be interesting to see how high Atlanta prioritise a pick at RB. This draft contains a decent pool of backs who are likely to be available in rounds 2, 3 and 4 which could all warrant serious consideration.
The candidates
Todd Gurley - Georgia
Pro: Full set of speed, power and balance (2014 - 61% of rush yards after contact), good safe hands;
Con: Injuries, limited experience in pass protection
Verdict: Unlikely to be available by Falcons 2nd round pick. Pass rush higher priority?
Ameer Abdullah - Nebraska
Pro: High character. Highly productive, decisive runner. Good receiver too - no drops in last 2 years.
Con: Lacks ideal size and top-end speed, frame not suited to pass protection. Ball security issues.
Verdict: Would be a likely 1st round back if bigger, a steal for the Falcons if he made 3rd round.
Tevin Coleman - Indiana
Pro: Decisive, powerful runner, very physical style. Reaches top-speed quick and is fast.
Con: Impatient runner, doesn't break many tackles. Receiving skills need improvement
Verdict: Ticks the workhorse box and has breakaway speed. Could excel given right backs coach.
Jay Adayi - BYU
Pro: Versatile, good feet and can fight tough inside yards and break outside
Con: Red flags from 2011 (torn ACL and arrest for stealing) will be investigated.
Verdict: Could be a chain-mover option with alternative style to Freeman if he lasts until 3rd round.
Late Round Sleeper
Jeremy Langford - Michigan State
Pro: Productivity; Hard-nosed style; Workhorse back; More than capable in pass protection;
Con: Impatient runner at times, habit of running into blockers; Heavy workload in college;
Verdict: Relatively unheralded in what's a deep RB class, some scouts feel there is little difference between Langford and the more acclaimed Abdullah and Coleman. Could be exceptional value if he falls into later rounds;
Offensive Line
Kyle Shanahan's zone blocking scheme calls for mobile O-linemen and it will be interesting to see if this drives personnel changes within the group. The Falcons have yet to overhaul although they did release long serving Justin Blalock in the off-season, but this was more a salary cap move than scheme fit. The rest of the group returns with the addition of free agency signing Mike Person who has yet to show any substantial playing time in the league. I can't see the Falcons addressing the O-line in the first round unless an attractive trade offer downwards was accepted, but could see a pick potentially spent between rounds 2-4 on one of a number of guys who could become solid starters with a year to develop into the system. I've taken a look at guys who may be available around that time.
The candidates
Cameron Irving - Florida State
Pro: 2-yrs experience at LT before switch inside. Good athleticism, footwork; Improved each year;
Con: Limited experience at C; Can be overpowered with bull-rush, needs more leg strength;
Verdict: Can play multiple positions though best suited inside. Only played 2 years on O-line after switch from DT but shown improvement each year. Would offer Falcons versatility.
Jake Fisher - Oregon
Pro: Scheme fit with good footwork, likely move to guard but has ability to play RT;
Con: Needs to bulk-up and add power; One of most penalised tackles in 2015 draft class;
Verdict: Falcons may eye Fisher as ideal zone-block fit to cross-train over multiple positions.
Ali Marpet - Hobart & William Smith
Pro: Scheme fit with good feet quickness. 1st ever div III at senior bowl. Impressive combine.
Con: Huge leap from small school and inferior opposition to the NFL. Needs to bulk-up;
Verdict: Great story and may suit Falcons zone-block scheme. Huge learning curve in his first year and would probably suit a switch from tackle to G/C. A steal if he makes 4th round.
Tre Jackson - Florida State
Pro: 3-yr starter for successful FSU team,
Con: Potential conditioning issues - reliant on size than skill
Verdict: Didn't stand out for me on tape, but is projected as 2nd round pick. Think he would suit power system rather than Falcons zone scheme, I'd prefer the more versatile but less experienced Cameron Erving from same O-line
Upgrades & Depth
Tight End
Prior to free agency the Falcons only had Levine Toilolo on their roster at tight end. He's been largely disappointing even as a large end-zone target at 6'8 and appears suited to a back-up role. No run was made for Julius Thomas but they did address the position with the signings of Jacob Tamme and Tony Moeaki. It's safe to say Matt Ryan will continue to miss Tony Gonzalez but the position is stronger than in 2014. With three tight ends on the roster it's possible the Falcons won't address the position with a draft pick. However, some late round options such as Rutgers Tyler Croft could compete for playing time and it remains possible that the highest rated player at the position, Maxx Williams, could be available when the Falcons pick in the 2nd round.
Wide Receiver
It's possible a mid-to-late round pick could be spent on a receiver to provide depth. Harry Douglas was allowed to depart in free agency, albeit replaced by Leonard Hankerson. Roddy White is not getting any younger and durability, which was a strength for White over many years, is starting to become a concern. Julio Jones is too good to not match-up with a dangerous #2 receiver and this draft class, like 2014's, seems to have real depth to it.
Secondary
The Falcons are only 3 years removed from selecting Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford in consecutive rounds of the draft. Alford doesn't have the size that Coach Quinn had at his disposal in Seattle and therefore could be seen by the new coaching staff as a better slot option than starting corner. Trufant may also not stack up in physical stature to the Legion of Boom but is a star on the rise and can only get better with support from a consistent pass-rush. The Falcons allowed Robert McClain, Dwight Lowery, Javier Arenas and Josh Wilson to leave in free agency and in return signed only Phillip Adams. It's possible further depth is secured via the draft, potentially fitting the Seahawk mould of a tall, physical defensive back, either at Corner or Safety.
Linebacker
The position most addressed during free agency with Brooks Reed, Justin Durant and O'Brien Schofield all added to provide competition in an area of weakness. We've addressed pass rush options already above, but it's likely that Atlanta considers another ILB at some point to provide cover and special teams skills.
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