Are the Falcons in line for the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft?

It might have been heresy 3 months ago, but it now appears pretty clear that the come the 8^th May 2014, the Falcons are going to have the opportunity to select pretty high up the order in the NFL draft. The Falcons currently tie for the NFL’s worst record with the equally disappointing "Super Bowl contenders" the Houston Texans and the not so surprisingly poor Jacksonville Jaguars. As it currently stands the 2-9 Falcons would hold the 3^rd overall pick in the draft based on the strength of schedule of opponents faced.

Team Records 2013 to date	W-L-T	Div	Conf	Strength of Schedule
Tampa Bay	3-8	1-3	2-6	0.562
Washington	3-8	0-3	1-7	0.521
Minnesota	2-8-1	0-3	1-7	0.521
Atlanta	2-9	1-4	2-6	0.595
Jacksonville	2-9	2-1	2-5	0.579
Houston	2-9	1-2	2-5	0.545

This has to be a surprise development for the Front Office and aside from the Julio Jones pick from a trade-up, this would be the highest pick by the organisation since Matt Ryan was picked 3^rd overall in Thomas Dimitroff’s first draft in 2008.

So in a little bit of a what if scenario, who should the Falcons go with should they pick so early in 2014?

The needs

·         Offensive Line – possibly one of the worst O-lines in the NFL in 2013 thus far, serviceable without excelling in previous years. My last blog suggested that this area has been a large weakness within the Falcons scouting, one of their only weak spots to be fair. I’d suggest that Blalock is good enough at left guard but beyond that it is open season. I'd personally prefer this addressed by veterans in free agency after our draft whiffs.

·         Defensive Line / Pass Rush – John Abraham may have been aging but his release for the slightly younger Osi Usmenyiora has not made a significant impact on the pass rush. Osi has been surprisingly more effective against the run than expected but his sack output is down from where Big Abe usually was, although you have to put this on a unit and not a single player. An impact player is really needed for this defense. It’s easy to sit here with hindsight but Clay Matthews was selected 2 picks after Peria Jerry in 2009….

·         Running Back – it’s all too easy to blame the backs for 31^st ranked run offense but the facts are that Steven Jackson is not getting any younger and Jacquizz Rodgers is a change-of-pace back, period. A high round 1 pick on a back tends to run against conventional wisdom these days, I can’t see the Falcons going here in Rd 1 regardless of where they pick

·         Tight End – if Tony Gonzalez truly retires this off-season then the Falcons are left with little used Chase Coffman and the 6’8” rookie Levine Toilolo. First round is unlikely here, there doesn’t appear to be a standout TE in the draft to warrant it.

The candidates

·        Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina  -  Drawing favourable comparisons to Julius Peppers and even Bruce Smith, a fantastic sophomore season saw Clowney finish 6^th in the Heisman voting whilst breaking the schools single season record for sacks (13.0) and tackles for loss (23.5). I guess there are some warning signs as his junior year has been less successful due to numerous injury niggles but there's been no major injury black mark to scare off the scouts. He’s fully expected to go within the top 5 picks of the draft

·        Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA – Known as the man who put Matt Barkley out of the rest of his senior year, Barr only has one year experience on defense after converting from RB/WR/TE prior to his junior season. But what a season it was, with only Georgia’s Jarvis Jones beating his sack total of 13.5; Whilst Jones was picked by the Steelers #17 overall in the 2013 draft, Barr opted to stay on for his senior year and continues to operate at a high-level with 8.0 sacks to date this season

·        Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M – If bloodlines are any indication Matthews figures to be an outstanding pro – the son of Hall of Fame guard Bruce Matthews, nephew of Clay Matthews Jr who played 19 years with the Browns and Falcons, and cousin of Green Bay’s Clay Matthews III and his brother Casey. Many scouts think Matthews to be a better prospect than former team-mate Luke Joeckel who went #2 overall in 2013 and he could be plugged in at left tackle immediately in Atlanta

·        Stephon Tuitt, DE, Notre Dame - A native of Georgia - Tuitt was ranked as the second best DE in the country coming out of Monroe High School. His final year of High School, Monroe finished 11-2 after going 0-20 over the previous two seasons. He chose Notre Dame ahead of options at Georgia Tech and Georgia and ended his sophomore year with 12.0 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, 3 forced fumbles and a fumble recovery for TD. He's not been quite as effective this year, posting 5.0 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss, but would make a nice homecoming story should the Falcons select him.