Are the Falcons in line for the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft?

It might have been heresy 3 months ago, but it now appears pretty clear that the come the 8^th May 2014, the Falcons are going to have the opportunity to select pretty high up the order in the NFL draft. The Falcons currently tie for the NFL’s worst record with the equally disappointing "Super Bowl contenders" the Houston Texans and the not so surprisingly poor Jacksonville Jaguars. As it currently stands the 2-9 Falcons would hold the 3^rd overall pick in the draft based on the strength of schedule of opponents faced.

Team Records 2013 to date	W-L-T	Div	Conf	Strength of Schedule
Tampa Bay	3-8	1-3	2-6	0.562
Washington	3-8	0-3	1-7	0.521
Minnesota	2-8-1	0-3	1-7	0.521
Atlanta	2-9	1-4	2-6	0.595
Jacksonville	2-9	2-1	2-5	0.579
Houston	2-9	1-2	2-5	0.545

This has to be a surprise development for the Front Office and aside from the Julio Jones pick from a trade-up, this would be the highest pick by the organisation since Matt Ryan was picked 3^rd overall in Thomas Dimitroff’s first draft in 2008.

So in a little bit of a what if scenario, who should the Falcons go with should they pick so early in 2014?

The needs

·         Offensive Line – possibly one of the worst O-lines in the NFL in 2013 thus far, serviceable without excelling in previous years. My last blog suggested that this area has been a large weakness within the Falcons scouting, one of their only weak spots to be fair. I’d suggest that Blalock is good enough at left guard but beyond that it is open season. I'd personally prefer this addressed by veterans in free agency after our draft whiffs.

·         Defensive Line / Pass Rush – John Abraham may have been aging but his release for the slightly younger Osi Usmenyiora has not made a significant impact on the pass rush. Osi has been surprisingly more effective against the run than expected but his sack output is down from where Big Abe usually was, although you have to put this on a unit and not a single player. An impact player is really needed for this defense. It’s easy to sit here with hindsight but Clay Matthews was selected 2 picks after Peria Jerry in 2009….

·         Running Back – it’s all too easy to blame the backs for 31^st ranked run offense but the facts are that Steven Jackson is not getting any younger and Jacquizz Rodgers is a change-of-pace back, period. A high round 1 pick on a back tends to run against conventional wisdom these days, I can’t see the Falcons going here in Rd 1 regardless of where they pick

·         Tight End – if Tony Gonzalez truly retires this off-season then the Falcons are left with little used Chase Coffman and the 6’8” rookie Levine Toilolo. First round is unlikely here, there doesn’t appear to be a standout TE in the draft to warrant it.

The candidates

·        Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina  -  Drawing favourable comparisons to Julius Peppers and even Bruce Smith, a fantastic sophomore season saw Clowney finish 6^th in the Heisman voting whilst breaking the schools single season record for sacks (13.0) and tackles for loss (23.5). I guess there are some warning signs as his junior year has been less successful due to numerous injury niggles but there's been no major injury black mark to scare off the scouts. He’s fully expected to go within the top 5 picks of the draft

·        Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA – Known as the man who put Matt Barkley out of the rest of his senior year, Barr only has one year experience on defense after converting from RB/WR/TE prior to his junior season. But what a season it was, with only Georgia’s Jarvis Jones beating his sack total of 13.5; Whilst Jones was picked by the Steelers #17 overall in the 2013 draft, Barr opted to stay on for his senior year and continues to operate at a high-level with 8.0 sacks to date this season

·        Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M – If bloodlines are any indication Matthews figures to be an outstanding pro – the son of Hall of Fame guard Bruce Matthews, nephew of Clay Matthews Jr who played 19 years with the Browns and Falcons, and cousin of Green Bay’s Clay Matthews III and his brother Casey. Many scouts think Matthews to be a better prospect than former team-mate Luke Joeckel who went #2 overall in 2013 and he could be plugged in at left tackle immediately in Atlanta

·        Stephon Tuitt, DE, Notre Dame - A native of Georgia - Tuitt was ranked as the second best DE in the country coming out of Monroe High School. His final year of High School, Monroe finished 11-2 after going 0-20 over the previous two seasons. He chose Notre Dame ahead of options at Georgia Tech and Georgia and ended his sophomore year with 12.0 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, 3 forced fumbles and a fumble recovery for TD. He's not been quite as effective this year, posting 5.0 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss, but would make a nice homecoming story should the Falcons select him.

Dimitroff and his O-line woes

In Matt Ryan’s rookie season the Atlanta Falcons were supposed to be a mess. Ditched by the traitorous Head Coach Bobby Petrino, who ran back to college after posting his resignation on a four sentence laminated note on the players lockers with the Falcons at 3-10, they limped to a close season which saw team owner Arthur Blank appointing the pairing of GM Thomas Dimitroff and HC Mike Smith to turn around a franchise that had never experienced consecutive winning seasons in their 42-year history. They inherited a weak roster and their franchise quarterback was absent serving a prison sentence for his part in a much publicised dog-fighting scandal. It couldn’t get much worse.

Five seasons on and the Falcons have not since experienced a losing season, until now, stood 2-9 after last nights 17-13 defeat to fierce divisional rival New Orleans Saints. The Falcons may have opened the season as one of the favourites to reach the Super Bowl, optimism was high, with even future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez being enticed out of retirement for one last stint at reaching the big one. This year it’s simply gone quite horribly wrong.

GM Thomas Dimitroff has taken many plaudits for the teams success, the NFL’s executive of the year in 2008 and 2010, he is rightly seen as the man responsible for stacking the Falcons with one of the most talented NFL rosters at the skill positions. However, it is all too obvious to this writer that it is worthless having talented superstars such as the aforementioned Gonzo, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Harry Douglas when you cannot protect your $100m quarterback sufficiently to get any of them the ball. It is pointless bringing in a talented veteran such as Steven Jackson at running back if you cannot create any running lanes for him to explode through. Games are won and lost in the trenches and if they are the foundations of a football team then the Falcons offense have built their castle on sand.

Today I suggest that Mr Dimitroff has a blind spot – and it is along this offensive line where he has failed the Falcons. Whilst accepted as a leading GM in terms of player personnel, reviewing his O-Line drafting, is this his Achilles heel? I cannot accuse him of weak roster evaluation, indeed he must be conscious of how poor the line play has been as he has used at least one draft pick in each years draft whilst GM in Atlanta to address the positions. It must therefore be his staffs player evaluation at these positions which is failing. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t hold the offensive line solely responsible for the 2-9 record this year but do firmly believe that one of two more successful picks in recent drafts would have had the Falcons in the Superbowl during the last 5 years.

Here I rank TD’s drafting of linemen during his Falcons tenure :

Sam Baker (Rd1, 2008) I accept he was drafted out of necessity to help protect the rookie Ryan, and that he was probably a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick until a run on linemen in the first round, but following his selection he has been often injured and his play when on the field has generally been inconsistent his whole career -  until last year when he appeared to have turned the corner in what we all presumed was linked to his first injury-free season, coincidentally his contract year. Fresh off a 6-yr, $40m odd contract, Baker’s not played well and is currently on IR for the season. According to Pro Football Focus, in 131 pass plays he’s conceded 1 sack, 7 QB hits and 12 pressures – this ranks him as 75^th out of 75 graded offensive tackles in pass blocking this season. One good year in five for a 1^st round pick? Verdict : Bust

Garrett Reynolds (Rd5, 2009) The lowest drafted lineman from the Dimitroff era, hardly seeing the field through his first 2 seasons, Reynolds started 7 games at guard in 2011 before being benched, but re-won the starting job in 2012 training camp only to go onto IR for the season after 6 promising starts. In 2013 he started at right guard for the first 9 games until a temporary benching for a couple of series against Tampa, only to be re-installed as starter yesterday and benched midway through the game. Whilst not an All-Pro, his play has been solid prior to the last few weeks. Verdict : Value Pick, borderline starter.

Mike Johnson (Rd3, 2010) one start since drafted, Johnson has already been placed on IR twice in his career, and is out until 2014 again. Appeared to be in line to start at right tackle until pre-season injury put paid to another season. Verdict : Injuries make it hard to judge, but based upon on-field value to date, for a third round pick he has to be a ….. Bust.

Joe Hawley (Rd4, 2011) started the first 3 games of his rookie year at Center as Todd McClure recovered from injury and ended up starting the last 9 games of the season at guard, but struggled as the season wore on, particularly in the run game. Whilst he has started the last 2 games at Center this season, it is more a reflection of the play of Peter Konz than anything. He’s basically a back-up guard and pre-dominantly used as a 6^th lineman at TE position on obvious run downs. Hands of lead when he’s actually allowed to run a pass route but the less said on that the better.  Verdict : Bust

Peter Konz (Rd2, 2012) drafted as the heir apparent to McClure, Konz was given playing time at guard as a rookie last year where he didn’t really stand-out. Given the starting centre role with McClure now with his feet up watching on TV, Konz appears to be going backwards, quite literally when lined up against more powerful defensive tackles. The warning signs were there with a weak bench-press at the combine, the Falcons don’t appear to have developed his game to correct the weaknesses. Moved to guard last week and benched last night, he’s currently ranked 33^rd out of 33 centers by Pro Football Focus in 2013  Verdict : Jury is out but approaching Bust status

Lamar Holmes (Rd3, 2012) considered something of a project when drafted, Holmes only played 7 offensive snaps as a rookie. With the free agency departure of Tyson Clabo and the Mike Johnson injury, Holmes was thrust into the spotlight at right tackle only to be benched after 2 starts, then forced into starting at left tackle with Sam Baker injured. He appears very susceptible to any power / bull rush and seemingly tires greatly in the second half of games. With 6 sacks conceded, 10 QB hits and 38 pressures in 466 pass plays he is ranked 69^th out of 75 graded offensive tackles by Pro Football Focus. A small consolation for Lamar is that this ranks him marginally better than Sam Baker and he has appeared to show signs of improvement as the seasons wore on  Verdict : Too early to call but he’s blatantly not been ready to start from wk1

 

In summary, Dimitroff has failed to find a solid starter in 6 draft classes whilst the offensive line has steadily declined and failed to address the problem via veterans in free agency either. The lone standout on the line is guard Justin Blalock, the one starter who has stuck around from the pre-Dimitroff/Smith era. For a team that has taken such huge leaps in turning around a moribund franchise, this for me sticks out like a red warning beacon. It must be addressed and we can ill afford a further rebuild year on the offensive line. Quality veteran help is required now that Dimitroff has drawn blanks throughout the last 6-years of drafting in this area. The 2014 off-season is going to be a telling period for turning around this offense. I don't have the faith in the draft process within the organisation and would probably expect our now likely high draft pick to be spent on an impact defensive player.