Lots of good value still on the board after Day One :
33 - Cincinnati Bengals EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State)
Not as obvious to call as their 1st round pick but the Bengals need someone off the edge and Gross-Matos is strong against the run and has bags of untapped potential as a pass rusher
34 - Indianapolis Colts WR Denzel Mims (Baylor)
Jalen Hurts or Jacob Eason could be in the mix at QB but think it more likely the Colts address priority #1 and take advantage of the stellar WR class with whoever is their highest ranked guy
35 - Detroit Lions EDGE A.J Epenesa (Iowa)
If I was a betting man I'd say it's got to be the trenches but there's good value at Safety too. I'll take A.J Epenesa who went from the #2 Edge prospect to out of Day One following the combine.
36 - NY Giants S Xavier McKinney (Alabama)
Could be another pass rusher but there's two 1st round graded safeties back there. I'm going with Xavier McKinney, just too good to pass up at #36
37 - New England Patriots OT Josh Jones (Houston)
I never have a clue where the Patriots are going to go. Could it be QB? Bags of potential in Jones, many had him as a late 1st round pick.
38 - Carolina Panthers CB Kristian Fulton (LSU)
Still some good corners available and it's a vital position in the NFC South
39 - Miami Dolphins EDGE Zack Baun (Wisconsin)
The Fins rush game and their pass rush were both dire in 2019. If it was me I'd go D'Andre Swift here who could be the Josh Jacobs effect in Miami. However, I'm not sure the Dolphins are going to rate the RB position so highly so instead have them take their edge rusher.
40 - Houston Texans EDGE Terrell Lewis (Alabama)
I have the run on edge rushers continuing. It's a team need and Houston are aware of the picks prior
41 - Cleveland Browns S Grant Delpit (LSU)
Yes there's the missed tackles but Delpit shown in 2018 that he's a potential game changer too. Some argue he's the best Safety in the class and falls into Cleveland's lap.
42 - Jacksonville Jaguars DL Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma)
Real surprised the Jags didn't go DL on Day One. They've surely got to address the departures here?
43 - Chicago Bears CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah)
The Bears will be happy if Johnson's still on the board. Length and physicality. Not the top end speed of the elite corners but that's why he's here on Day Two.
44 - Indianapolis Colts QB Jason Eason (Washington)
An ideal situation for Eason who won't be expected to start Day One. He's a development project but with a cannon arm.
45 - Tampa Bay Buccs RB D'Andre Swift (Georgia)
Hate to see the Bucs get the best RB in the class but he's a do-it-all back and we know Brady loves the ball-catching backs. Too good a fit to pass up on surely.
46 - Denver Broncos OT Ezra Cleveland (Boise State)
Are they still persisting with Garret Bolles in Denver? Here's some competition. Cleveland is a bit of project but has all the tools to become a premier starter.
47 - Atlanta Falcons DT Marlon Davidson (Auburn)
The Falcs are surely looking DL or LB. I think the value here is with Davidson or Ross Blacklock. Both are interior starters with pass-rush skills too. Good complements to Grady Jarrett.
48 - NY Jets WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado)
The Jets have got to get Sam Bradford some playmakers. Their best WR Robbie Anderson re-united with Matt Rhule in Carolina. Sheanult may slide further than this due to injury concerns but he's an explosive difference maker. I think it's worth the risk even if the Jets don't.
49 - Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)
They could be looking trenches or even QB but I'm giving them a bell-cow back whose physical style of play will go down well in Pittsburgh.
50 - Chicago Bears S Antoine Winfield Jr (Minnesota)
Going for controversy here. The Bears could take S.Illinois' Jeremy Chinn or the son of former Vikes namesake who played his college ball in Minnesota.
51 - Dallas Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama)
The Cowboys were possibly zeroing in on CB on Day One until they saw CeeDee Lamb still there at #17. Diggs is relatively new to the position but I wouldn't have been at all surprised if he'd become a Day One pick with the physicality he brings to the corner position
52 - LA Rams LB/EDGE Josh Uche (Michigan)
Uche could probably play the WILL then Edge on obvious pass downs.
53 - Philadelphia Eagles S Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois)
I could see a double down on WR but not sure they'll do it immediately here. The holes elsewhere are few and far between but noticeable at LB and Safety. So as a decent compromise here I see Philly selecting S Jeremy Chinn. He's got the urgency and athleticism but will need some development coming from a small school. Chinn could likely play some 3rd down LB initially as well as a reserve S role. Two birds with one stone.
54 - Buffalo Bills RB J.K Dobbins (Ohio State)
A BPA decision here. Dobbins would have been a 1st rounder in years gone by. He's a true 3 down back. Buffalo need more depth at the position and he'll challenge Singletary for carries.
55 - Baltimore Ravens WR K.J Hamler (Penn State)
More a pick I'd love to see than what they'll do. Lamar Jackson getting the ball to Hamler in space. Wow. He's the best WR in the open-field in this class. At 5'9 he's probably only a slot so not sure it's the value pick for a Ravens O that uses more two TE sets than most, but I'm a fan not a GM and I'd love to see it.
56 - Miami Dolphins IOL Lloyd Cushenberry III (LSU)
Could this be the RB pick? If so, I think Cam Akers gets to stay in Florida. However, I think all the Dolphins selections have been looking at the longer term so I'm staying away from HB and adding more protection for Tua.
57 - L.A Rams CB Darnay Holmes (UCLA)
Good marketing selection from UCLA, Holmes is smooth and gifted. You'd like him to be more aggressive but the Rams coaches can work on that
58 - Minnesota Vikings DT Ross Blacklock (TCU)
A good 3-gap penetrator Blacklock has all the athleticism needed and will be in the Vikes rotation immediately. A good fit for Blacklock, and for Zimmer, who will help get the best out of him.
59 - Seattle Seahawks EDGE Curtis Weaver (Boise State)
A need pick here for the Seahawks. Weaver won't be a direct replacement for Clowney but is solid technically and will contribute
60 - Baltimore Ravens IOL Jonah Jackson (Ohio State)
With Marshal Yanda deciding on retirement after 13 seasons, Jackson would seem a sensible pick and lead to an interesting training camp battle with Ben Powers for the vacant RG slot
61 - Tennessee Titans DT Justin Madubuike (Texas A&M)
The surprise trade of Jurrell Casey leaves a slot here for Madubuike
62 - Green Bay Packers WR Tee Higgins (Clemson)
Whereas I did mention the possibility of QB in my Rd1 mock I still thought it was a dead cert a WR went to Green Bay. Well, Day Two is another day and another WR mocked to the Cheeseheads. In fact, it's not another WR it's the same guy I mocked for Day One!
63 - Kansas City Chiefs LB Willie Gay Jr (Mississippi State)
Andy Reid isn't scared off by red flags and the suspension Willie Gay received for fighting with a teammate in 2019 is relatively minor compared to some of the characters Reid has turned around. Gay is very athletic and active. His processing will require some development but he has the physical tools all in place
64 - Seattle Seahawks OT Lucas Niang (TCU)
Niang is a big RT with the mobility and power to excel in the run game. There's some work needed on his pass protect but it's a hip injury in 2019 that means he could be available here
Friday, 24 April 2020
Monday, 20 April 2020
NFL Mock Draft 2020
The NFL Draft. Ahh usually my favourite time of the offseason. Whilst the regular season is many months away there's usually an aching for football and the NFL Draft brings with it hope and optimism for the fanbases of all 32 teams. It's a different world right now with the Covid-19 outbreak impacting worldwide and yet the Draft, usually a sign off transition and evolution, instead provides a somewhat stabilising element of normality lacking in most of the sporting calendar.
In terms of the player pool, there's some prospects with serious superstar credentials such as Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons and the likely overall #1 pick Joe Burrow, and with some QB hungry teams there's potential for up to 4 QB's to be selected in the first round.
Looking beyond the top 10 picks there is real depth in this years draft class, particularly at WR where it seems teams will have excellent options throughout the draft class. It's possibly the strongest WR class that I can ever recall.
As we get to the latter rounds there's also a lot of familiar family names in the draft pool - Michigan OT Jon Runyan, Minnesota S Antoine Winfield, LSU TE Thaddeus Moss (son of Hall-of-Fame WR Randy), Purdue TE Brycen Hopkins (son of Pro Bowl Titan OL Brad) to name but a few.
With all this in mind, let's go to it. My mock draft for 2020. As ever, I have a no trade rule in my mock. So here goes.....
1. Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (LSU)
Does Joe Burrow want to go to Cincinnati and play in his hometown state? I think it looks increasingly likely that he becomes the first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Burrow was the undoubted star of the 2019 college football season. The momentum is rightly with Joe, and I don't see the Bengals passing him by.
What the Bengals would be getting is someone fresh off one of the most impressive college seasons of all-time by a QB. In leading LSU to the national title, Burrow passed for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdown passes (76.3% completion rate) in his 15 starts last year.The question the Bengals Front Office have to be comfortable with is whether the 2019 season was an unexplained phenomenon or the beginnings of a player in his ascendancy. This was the same Joe Burrow who couldn't beat out the Redskins Dwayne Haskins at Ohio State in 2018.
Burrow doesn't possess the cannon arm of say a Justin Herbert from the 2020 class, but his accuracy is top tier. I dare anyone to watch the championship game and tell me he's not special. The measurables may not jump off the charts but on gameday he's more mobile than you expect, he's smart and processes what's in front of him and has off the chart intangibles as a team leader.
For me Burrow becomes the #1 overall pick.Yes it's not going to be all rosy in Cincy but I just cannot see a QB needy team passing up on a national championship winning QB who tore up college football last year. Oh wait, it is the Bengals.....
Pick Fact - The last time the Bengals selected #1 overall was back in 2003 where they selected USC's Carson Palmer at QB
2. Washington Redskins DE Chase Young (Ohio State)
Should things run to plan then the Skins will be sitting here at #2 able to select the best non-QB in the draft class. Chase Young is generally accepted to be the best player in this draft class and it would surely take a bounty of picks for any team to pass up on the opportunity to select Young, especially a Redskins team that has been steadily building their D-line into the strength of their roster.
Young has posted 30.5 sacks over his 3 year stint in Ohio, improving each year with 10.5 sacks in 2018 followed by 16.5 sacks in 2019. He is freakishly gifted athletically and the scary fact is that there is still room to get so much better.
There is some talk of a trade down, even some strange talk of a QB selection a la Kyler Murray / Josh Rosen of last year. I don't buy either. Whilst the Redskins would benefit from a bounty of additional picks, I don't think they can miss out on the opportunity to get Chase Young to Washington.
Pick Fact - the last time the Redskins selected at #2 in the Draft was back in 2012 when they selected Robert Griffen III fresh of his Heisman Trophy winning season at Baylor
3. Detroit Lions CB Jeffrey Okudah (Ohio State)
The Lions are a true trade down candidate. They're sitting pretty at #3 knowing that a QB hungry team will potentially have to leap-frog Miami at #5 to get their man or the Dolphins prevent that by leaping from #5 to #3. The Lions could use the additional picks to bolster a number of gaps in their roster.
With this being a no-trade mock, I think the Lions considerations centre on best player available (assuming they don't use the opportunity to groom the heir to Matt Stafford).Jeffrey Okudah is the Rolls Royce candidate at cornerback. Watching his gametape he is a superb technician and silky smooth in his movements. He excels in man coverage and if he can take the next step he has the potential to be a shutdown corner in the NFL.
The other option could be Isaiah Simmons who is a Defensive Co-ordinators dream with his size (6'4, 238lbs), speed (4.38 40 at the combine) and versatility (CB / S / LB). I think Detroit is in a can't lose position, but with Darius Slay traded to the Eagles, I see plenty of logic in the Lions selecting Okudah as their replacement shutdown corner and forming a new cornerback partnership with former Falcon Desmond Trufant in the Lions secondary
Pick Fact - The legendary RB Barry Sanders was selected #3 overall by the Lions back in 1989. Sanders finished his career in Detroit 10 years later having made the Pro Bowl in every single season, ending with 15,269 rushing yards (still 4th all-time) and was inducted into the HOF in 2004
4. New York Giants OT Mekhi Becton (Louisville)
If the Lions aren't moved at #3 then the Giants are in an equally enviable position one slot ahead of Miami. I'd seriously be listening to offers to maximise their draft haul. I think the Giants positional needs could be met lower down from #4. Assuming they pick though, then I'd be considering Isaiah Simmons as a fantastic chess piece on D, the Giants after all conceded over 28 points per game in 2019, but I'm conscious that the Giants also conceded 43 sacks in 2019 and need to protect their young QB whilst creating holes for true franchise back Saquon Barkely.
We know Dave Gettleman likes his hog molly linemen, well there's a decent pool in 2020. I think there are a raft of options from Jedrick Wills, Mekhi Becton, Tristan Wirfs and Andrew Thomas to name only a few who could all feature as first round options to upgrade this O-line. I also think the Giants could target one of the many talented WR's from this class, but again #4 feels a reach too unless they're really sold on someone.I've opted for Mekhi Becton here simply due to the potential upside. The description Man Mountain could have been invented for Becton. Standing 6'7 and 364 lbs he then surprises with nimble feet. I don't think he's the safest O-line pick but he's the one with the biggest upside and has experience at both LT and RT spots. If the Giants want to make a statement on their O-line Becton is a good place to start, but yes I'd trade out from here if possible and pick him lower.
Quiz question : Can you name the draftee the last time the Giants picked at #4? Clue: he never played a snap for them. Ok, give up.... ? This was the famous selection of Philip Rivers after the Chargers had selected Eli Manning #1 overall back in 2004
5. Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)
It's not a secret that the Dolphins fanbase would have loved this pick 6 months ago. With the Dolphins shopping a host of big names and losing their opening 2 games by a combined 92 points the calls to "Tank for Tua" echoed.Tua Tagovailoa was expected to go on to claim the Heisman Trophy with the Dolphins expected to struggle to an 0-16 season. However, Tua's season ended prematurely with a devastating dislocated hip whilst Miami were surprisingly competitive even handing out a late season defeat to the Patriots.
Joe Burrow meanwhile carved up college defences to an historical extent putting himself firmly into the #1 position as Miami squandered their tanking mission. Tua Tagovailoa is no longer that #1 pick.
The durability question marks are loud now around Tua but it seems fate that he should still fall into Miami's lap. I'm not moving away from the pick.
The fact that Brian Flores coached 5 wins out of the Dolphins was a huge testament to his skills and leadership and I'm excited to see how the Front Office uses this multitude of 2020 draft picks to help Flores lift the team out of the doldrums. The initial reports are that Tua is expected to make full recovery but with Ryan Fitzpatrick still in Miami, Flores won't feel pressured to introduce Tua too early. It's still my pick here at #5
Draft Stat - This is the first draft since 1992 where Miami own multiple first round picks. They didn't do badly that year with their picks CB Troy Vincent (#7) and DE Marco Coleman (#12) playing in 414 NFL games between them
6. Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert (Oregon)
This is a tough pick to call. The Phillip Rivers era is over and the Chargers at #6 have a potential opportunity to select their next franchise QB. I'm keenly keeping an eye on free agency (Cam Newton and Jameis Winston remain jobless and Andy Dalton could become so soon) whilst the Chargers talk up incumbent Tyrod Taylor who seems to have been in this situation when the Browns selected Baker Mayfield back in 2018.
Should a viable veteran passer be added, I could see the Chargers looking at the offensive tackle position. Both RT Sam Tevi and and default LT starter Trent Scott are underwhelming.
The logical pick if the Chargers don't make a vet signing would be Justin Herbert if the Chargers are sold on him. Herbert has elite arm talent and decent mobility but I cannot help comparing him with Joe Burrow. Herbert would beat Burrow in nearly every measurable athletic category but if both were behind Center with the game on the line you know Burrow would get it done, whereas Herbert seemed to often disappoint in the bigger games in college.
The one saving grace for Herbert though is that this Chargers roster is built to win now. There's added pressure yes but a better situation than the one Burrow may face in Cincinnati.
Herbert's physical traits are hard to ignore but sometimes the strong arm can cloud evaluations. It seems like a 50:50 success pick which I think would be similar odds in adding one of the vet passers to this roster but this could be just as much a commercial decision as the Chargers need that big-armed face of a franchise to help establish them in L.A.
Pick Fact - The last time the Chargers drafted at #6 they selected DB Mossy Cade who never played a snap for the team. Cade opted instead to join the USFL prior to a couple of seasons in Green Bay
7. Carolina Panthers LB Isaiah Simmons (Clemson)
The Matt Rhule era starts in Carolina. Can he replicate his college success in the pro's?
The Panthers are probably looking to bolster their O-line, but this is more likely on the interior and addressed during Day Two. The rest of the starting offense looks set with key acquisitions Teddy Bridgewater and Robby Anderson.
This probably leaves the Panthers considering cornerback or potentially an interior D-lineman after allowing Dontari Poe and back-ups Vernon Butler and Kyle Love depart. I could certainly see some interest in Derrick Brown or Javon Kinlaw from the Panthers.
However, I think it just too much of a coincidence that my top-rated player left on the board matches with the key retirement of Panthers legendary LB Luke Kuechly.Isaiah Simmons is arguably the most fascinating player from this years draft class. With over 100 snaps each as edge defender, linebacker, slot cornerback, free safety and strong safety, Simmons is ultra versatile and his combine performance continued to wow the scouts.
You just don't find an athlete as big as Simmons (6'4, 238 lbs) who is as explosive and fast (4.39 40). He's a chess piece and in the right co-ordinators hands could be a real game changing talent. Without getting too carried away with the upside, it's fair to say he's not going to be at Luke Kuechly level immediately but the physical traits and versatility potentially provide even more upside.
Draft Stat - The Carolina Panthers last 5 picks inside the top 10 read : Christian McCaffrey (#8 in 2017), Luke Kuechly (#9 in 2012), Cam Newton (#1 in 2011), Jordan Gross (#8 in 2003) and Julius Peppers (#2 in 2002). No pressure there then.
8. Arizona Cardinals OT Tristan Wirfs (Iowa)
A few months ago the consensus pick here was WR but the trade for DeAndre Hopkins probably means this is much less likely.
The Cards may instead look to focus on improvements in the trenches. The Arizona O-line has been often ignored in the draft with only one pick spent in the first 3 rounds since 2016. Whilst Kyler Murray is mobile and elusive, help is needed in this area.
The Arizona offense runs a lot of screens and the mobility of their O-linemen are keys to this success. Tristan Wirfs became the first freshman to start for Iowa in the Kirk Ferentz era and has consistently improved year-on-year. He's athletically gifted for an O-lineman, smooth and powerful and has experience at both Tackle spots. There are some who feel he may be best suited to Guard but he'll get a good shot at proving he can hack it outside first.
Pick Fact - It's surprisingly not well known that Joe Namath was the then St Louis Cardinals 1st round pick of the 1965 draft (#12 overall). These were the days prior to the AFL-NFL and Namath instead decided to sign for the New York Jets. The rest, as they say, is history.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars DT Derrick Brown (Auburn)
The Jaguars made a cap saving of $20m when deciding not to take up the option year of DT Marcel Dareus contract and surprisingly traded away Calais Campbell to the Baltimore Ravens for only a 5th round pick. I suspect the future of Yannick Ngakoue could influence where the Jaguars go with the first of their 2020 selections.
I think the focus is likely in the trenches on either side of the board, with many experts suggesting a potential LT selection allowing Cam Robinson to move inside to Guard. However, the Jaguars previous success has been built around defense and I think the value pick at #9 would be Derrick Brown from Auburn's formidable line.
Brown would upgrade their run defense immediately but just as important for this team is the off-field leadership he would bring to the unit. It might not be the flashiest pick but Brown is the sort of player needed on every defense.
Should Ngakoue move on pre-draft then I could see the Jags potentially going after LSU's K'Lavon Chaisson as a replacement edge rusher. The one leftfield selection could be a QB if Jacksonville aren't truly certain about Gardner Minshew though the trade of Nick Foles would hint that he has the teams confidence.
Pick Stat - The Jags currently own two 1st round picks at #9 and #20. The last time they had multiple 1st round picks was back in 1998 when they selected RB Fred Taylor at #9 and S Donovan Darius at #25. They played a combined 20 seasons for the Jaguars
10. Cleveland Browns OT Andrew Thomas (Georgia)
The most obvious need in Cleveland is on the offensive line. Both of the Tackle spots were areas of weakness in 2019 and similarly RG saw Eric Kush benched midseason in favour of Wyatt Teller. The team began to address the line in free agency with the acquisition of RT Jack Conklin from the Titans, so it's specifically the LT position that Cleveland needs to invest in.
It's a good draft class for O-linemen so I don't think the Browns are forcing a positional pick by any means. The top linemen I have available here are Jedrick Wills and Andrew Thomas. Wills is the perhaps more athletically gifted but Thomas the more experienced and importantly perhaps the player more naturally suited at LT.
Thomas was a 3-yr starter on one of college footballs best O-lines, with the last 2 years spent at Left Tackle. It only seems right that it would take another Thomas to finally fill the void left by the retirement of Browns legend Joe Thomas.
Pick Fact - Yes the last time the Browns drafted an Offensive Tackle in the first round it was indeed Browns legend Joe Thomas, drafted #3 overall in 2007
11. NY Jets WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama)
The Jets have two glaring needs on offense - the need to protect Sam Darnold and the need to give him some weapons. This is the perfect draft class to address these needs. Improvement at both these positions should in turn free up some space for their one true franchise talent on offense, Le'veon Bell. If they can then find that elusive pass rusher too, they will have hit the jackpot.
I'm a big believer in drafting high talent, high achieving players in the first round ahead of positional need, but I think teams can get over enamoured with potential, as this word means very little if it can't be reached. That's why I'd really love this pick for the Jets as there's huge upside yes but a player already very polished and ready to make an impact in the NFL. I have the Jets focusing into selecting the first WR off the board.
It's been 8 years since the Falcons traded up to select Julio Jones from Alabama, but this JJ can follow in the footsteps of Julio, Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley who have all come off the Alabama production line as genuine 1st round picks over the last decade.
Jeudy is my favourite receiver in this class and can line up outside or in the slot with equal effectiveness. With 24 receiving TD's over the previous 2 seasons he has the production to match his enormous potential. Sam Darnold immediately becomes a better QB overnight.
Pick Fact - Aside from QB, the Jets have not spent a first round pick on an offensive player since 2008 (Purdue TE Dustin Keller selected #30)
12.LA Las Vegas Raiders WR CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma)
Mike Mayock enters his second draft as GM of the Raiders with multiple first round picks again. Free agency managed to fill some holes at LB (Cory Littleton, Nick Kwiatkoski), and the signing of Marcus Mariota from the Titans added some QB insurance (or competition) for Derek Carr. Mayock also trebled down on veterans from the Cowboys (Jason Witten, Jeff Heath and Maliek Collins).
However, it's the draft where Mike Mayock truly shines. Here he loses the chance to make-up for the failed Antonio Brown trade from last year with an AB clone (in terms of playing style!) in the draft, as I have mocked Jerry Jeudy to the Jets just one pick earlier.
However, I think the Raiders likely stick to WR here and pick another WR who many have ranked as the best in class, selecting CeeDee Lamb from Oklahoma. Lamb has been a TD machine for Oklahoma, with 32 TD receptions in his 3 years on campus. He posted 1325 receiving yards in 2019 at a pop of 21.4 per reception with an incredible 26 missed tackles once in the open field.
By providing Carr with the weapons on offense, the franchise gets to see if he can get near his 2015/2016 form that entered him onto MVP discussions. Ultimately the Raiders will be using 2020 to make decisions on whether they exit Carr or build around him in their new Las Vegas home.
Pick Fact - Sorry to do this Raiders fans, but I almost hope you don't select a Derek Carr replacement in the first round. The previous two times the Raiders have taken a QB in the 1st round were Jamarcus Russell (#1 overall in 2007) and Todd Marinovich (#24 in 1991) competing for the ignominy of second place on the biggest QB draft busts of all-time behind Ryan Leaf.
13. San Francisco 49ers (via the Colts in DeForest Buckner trade) WR Henry Ruggs (Alabama)
The 49ers waved goodbye to Emmanuel Sanders in free agency and appear a little short handed in the receiving department behind TE George Kittle (who had his second consecutive 1000yd/5TD haul last year) and the emerging Deebo Samuel.
The fact I've mocked two WR's immediately earlier shouldn't bother the 49ers too much. I think they'd welcome Jeudy or Lamb onto their roster but it could be almost a better fit for them to select Ruggs.
With Shanahan's offense designed around speed, there was arguably no faster receiver in all of college football last year than Ruggs. If they can get him in space or behind a defense with his 4.27 speed, he's gone. We knew he was fast but the combine just quantified how fast. His ability to stretch the defense should only add to the effectiveness of Kittle and Samuel and help Jimmy Garoppolo.
Pick Fact - Feeling superstitious? The Colts, in existence since 1953, have never picked at #13. They relinquished this spot in 2020 due to the acquisition of DeForest Buckner
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OT Jedrick Wills (Alabama)
The notable addition of Tom Brady in Tampa probably changes the Buccs draft strategy somewhat. Offensive Tackle was already high up on the need-list but keeping a less than mobile 43-yr old QB upright possibly becomes priority #1.
The Buccaneers conceded 47 sacks last year though admittedly Jameis Winston contributed somewhat to that figure by holding onto the ball longer than most Quarterbacks. However, even if Brady will distribute the ball quicker the Buccs need an O-line that can create space for a below average running game.
Should the Buccs focus elsewhere then they're probably considering a D-line addition with Javon
Kinlaw a strong possibility.
However, my numbers stack up here with the last of the sure-fire 1st round O-linemen still on the board. Jedrick Wills also happens to have 29 college starts at the RT position where he would naturally slot in to the Tampa line. He's powerful but surprisingly athletic. Wills would provide a boost to the run game immediately. Whilst his Guard like frame may put off some teams, Wills should be given every opportunity to make the RT spot his own first. If he does eventually shunt inside, the Buccs could have a future Pro Bowl guard.
I fully expect the Buccs to continue bolstering the offense on Day Two by adding a RB, with prime candidates DeAndre Swift, Cam Akers or Clyde Edwards-Helaire all offering typical Patriots type versatility as runners / receivers.
Pick Fact - The Buccaneers have only ever selected at #14 once before. If I'm right with my mock here then that's twice at #14 and two selections at the Tackle position (Kenyatta Walker #14 in 2001)
15. Denver Broncos WR Justin Jefferson (LSU)
I have the Broncos going any number of ways here. I think CB is a very real possibility, particularly with only one defensive back off the board here at #15. The signing of A.J Bouye was a direct reaction to losing Chris Harris in free agency but the secondary needs further attention.
However, I think the more urgent need is to bolster the Denver offense and help Drew Lock in his first full year as starting QB.
My initial thoughts were towards the O-line, but I suspect that just like in my mock, the top 4 O-linemen are off the board by #15.
I also think that it's obvious that Lock would benefit from more receiving weapons. TE Noah Fant will hopefully kick-on from his rookie year where his big-play ability was interspersed with dropped catches, but beyond Courtland Sutton no Denver wideout had over 300 yards receiving in 2019. This should be a position Denver re-visit again during this draft as there's simply no-one behind Sutton on that depth chart right now.
Draft Fact - Three of the Denver Broncos first six 1st round picks ended up in the Hall of Fame (Merlin Olsen 1962, Bob Brown 1964 and Floyd Little 1967)
16. Atlanta Falcons DT Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina)
The Falcons needs are glaringly obvious. They seem well set on offense following the offseason acquisitions of Todd Gurley, Laquon Treadwell and Hayden Hurst and will hope that their two 2019 first round picks Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary kick on and solidify the right side of their O-line. The problem LG spot will be a training camp battle between James Carpenter, Jamon Brown and whoever else they drag into Camp.
The focus of the 2020 draft will be heavily based on the defensive side of the ball. They spent big re-uniting Dante Fowler with Coach Quinn but are still light on the defensive line following departures of Vic Beasley, Jack Crawford and Adrian Clayborn. The organisation doesn't seem all in on Takk McKinley either so they may look for added insurance as McKinley likely reaches free agency in 2021.
The Falcons released veteran corner Desmond Trufant to create some cap space and currently have 2019 4th rounder Kendall Sheffield manning one of the starting corner positions. The free agent departure of Devondre Campbell to Arizona also creates a need in the LB group, though this is likely a later round depth pick with Foye Oluokun more than deserving his opportunity of greater playing time.
So who are the potential candidates? On the edge, the most likely option would be LSU's K'Lavon Chaisson if still on the board. An excellent first step and athletically gifted, Chaisson looks like a Quinn type defender. The one question mark on Chaisson is a concern that his limited production on a successful team doesn't quite translate to his remarkable athletic talents. The alternative edge option could be A.J Epenesa who is the counterbalance to this, not measuring well athletically but has consistently maxed out his talents at Iowa posting 11.5 sacks in 2019.
The corner options are numerous with the most popular pick (taking for granted Okudah goes early) being C.J Henderson from Miami with many experts predicting Thomas Dimitroff will move up the draft to ensure the Falcons land him. If Henderson is gone, Kristian Fulton or Trevon Diggs could feature as alternative selections.
I think any of these picks are realistic, but working on the basis that Atlanta need multiple home run starters from this draft class then I'm going to the interior D-Line and seeing the Falcons bring on board Javon Kinlaw to potentially form a fearsome interior pass rush tandem with Pro Bowler Grady Jarrett.
Kinlaw could be a boom or bust pick but this Front Office and coaching staff know that after 2019 they're on the hot seat and need to roll some dice.
You can take it for granted that the Falcons address the secondary early on Day Two if indeed they do pursue Kinlaw or Chaisson here.
Pick Fact - Atlanta's first ever draft pick happened to be 16th overall back in 1966, selecting QB Randy Johnson. The only other time the Falcons have picked at this spot was back in 1983 when they selected DT Mike Pitts out of Alabama
17. Dallas Cowboys CB C.J Henderson (Florida)
The Cowboys biggest moves in free agency were in retention (Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper) and then replacing key losses (Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe and HaHa Clinton Dix brought in as Michael Bennett, Maliek Collins and Jeff Heath departed).
However, they chose not to retain or replace either CB Byron Jones who left for Miami in an $82m / 5 year deal or Robert Quinn who departed for Chicago after an 11.5 sack season in 2019.
With these losses in mind it's likely that this will influence the early round draft decisions.
I see the Cowboys options as potentially K'Lavon Chaisson or A.J Epenesa to line up on the edge opposite DeMarcus Lawrence or a CB such as C.J Henderson or Kristian Fulton. They could even consider someone such as Xavier McKinney or Grant Delpit to play Safety too.
I think in all though, the Cowboys need a starting corner the most. I have Henderson ranked higher than Fulton, especially for Dallas, as they made a conscious decision to move on from Jones whom I think the team respected coverage wise but wanted more big plays from (Jones only had 2 picks in 73 starts in Dallas).
Pick Fact - No offensive player has been selected at #17 in the draft since 2011 (OT Nate Solder)
18. Miami Dolphins (via Steelers, Minkah Fitzpatrick trade) EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson (LSU)
Having secured a new QB at #5 the Dolphins focus and need should be to upgrade the O-line that will protect him for the next decade. However, I do feel that a pick around #18 may be a bit early to select the 5th O-lineman of the draft. The potential candidates are probably Georgia's Isaiah Wilson or Houston's Josh Jones. Both have plenty of upside but probably need a little more schooling before taking on a starting role.
Instead I have Miami attempting to address their pass rush. They posted an NFL low 23 sacks in 2019 and have the opportunity to select the most promising edge rusher on the board not named Chase Young.
I have struggled with which direction Miami could go here but think Chaisson most likely if they address their pass rush. Chaisson is ultra-explosive. Yes the Dolphins pick again at #26 so they could hold-out for A.J Epenesa there as he seems like a Patriots type defender who doesn't test well but just produces on the field. That might appeal to Brian Flores. However, I can't overlook the potential of Chaisson so I'm presuming that neither can Miami.
Pick Fact - Of Miami's last 8 first round picks only 3 remain on their roster. The 3 former first round picks traded away in 2019 all made the Pro Bowl representing their new teams
19. Las Vegas Raiders (via Chicago in Khalil Mack trade) CB Kristian Fulton (LSU)
Having acquired their new WR1 at #12 I see the Raiders likely focusing on defensive backs with their second pick of the first round. Following the departure of former 1st rounder Karl Joseph (#14 in 2016) the Raiders could have been considering Safety here, with Grant Delpit and Xavier McKinney likely options.
However, I've discounted this following the Raiders signing of ex-Cowboy Jeff Heath and ex-Brown Damarious Randall to compete to link up with 2019 first rounder Johnathan Abram. Instead I think the focus remains in the secondary but at the cornerback position.
The Raiders traded away former first rounder Gareon Conley in mid-season for a 3rd round pick, have yet to re-sign fellow starter Daryl Worley to date and will see Nevin Lawson suspended to start the 2020 season. The 2019 second rounder Trayvon Mullen will start at one corner position but it feels like the Raiders simply have to come out of this draft with someone immediately ready to start opposite of Mullen.
So who would the Raiders go for? Well using the Trayvon Mullen pick last year as a benchmark, both Cameron Dantzler and Trevon Diggs are big corners similar to Mullen.
Similarly, Mayock could go back to Clemson again this year and select A.J Terrell. However, I have Mayock taking LSU's Kristian Fulton who has consistently been one of the stickiest cover corners over the last 2 seasons.
Don't discount a double up of WR picks at #12 and #19. Yes it would be a surprise, but it's a need position and if you're going to do it, this is probably the year to pull the trigger twice.
Pick Fact - the last time the Raiders had a pick at #19 in the draft was back in 1974. They selected OT Henry Lawrence who played in 187 games over 13 seasons for the Raiders
20. Jacksonville Jags (via Rams in Jalen Ramsey trade) CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama)
The third successive team to be taking their second pick of the 2020 Draft and we're only 20 picks in. This is the pick obtained in the Jalen Ramsey trade so it's possibly a lazy link to mock the Jags taking his successor here, but it would be a pick of need.
In an attempt to avoid the obvious, I considered some other possibilities. Potentially a big play WR in a well stocked class. HC Doug Marrone has talked up moving defenses backwards too, so potentially a roadgrader of an O-lineman, or edge rusher with the risk of Yannick Ngakoue departing Jacksonville too.
If he does depart pre-draft, then all bets are off, it's probably an edge defender the Jags take somewhere in this first round.
However, laziness and need wins out here, and I have Jacksonville taking a cover corner.
Trevon Diggs at 6'2 is long and rangy. He dominated for Alabama last year, allowing only a 42.3% completion rate. He could benefit from more experience having only transitioned to CB in 2018 but all the tools are their to make an impact in the pro's.
21. Philadelphia Eagles WR Jalen Reagor (TCU)
Having nailed the Eagles selection of Andre Dillard last year I'm keen to hit home on this pick too but finding the choice a little more difficult to call.
The Eagles addressed one of their main areas of concern as they acquired two of the best cover corners available in free agency. Darius Slay should become the blanket corner the Eagles have not had in a few years and Nickell Robey-Coleman should win the nickel / slot corner job.
It was surprising the Eagles Front Office didn't address the WR depth in free agency. The position was a revolving door last year and whilst it was injuries that decimated the group, there's no escaping the fact that their projected starters are both on the wrong side of 30. Fortunately this draft has enough top-end talent and later round depth for the Eagles to take a couple of guys from this class to contribute.
The general consensus is that Philly will select a WR early in this draft. I already have 4 of the top WR's off the board here, but I still think the Eagles will have done their homework and target a receiver early. The remaining options that I have on my board all could have some fit into the Eagles offense.
I could certainly see interest in TCU's Jalen Reagor. The Eagles offense has always functioned better with a vertical threat and when DeSean Jackson went down in Wk3 Carson Wentz lost his only deep threat. Reagor looks a perfect fit for a team not afraid to challenge defenses vertically. He has impressive acceleration and top-speed.
The Eagles could also consider Colorado's Laviska Shenault. Whilst he's suffered playing in a dysfunctional college offense last year, his physical traits are outstanding and given the ball in the open-field in this Eagles offense he could be devastating.
Should Philly look elsewhere then the LB corps looks weak, especially if Nigel Brabham isn't resigned. It's not a position the Eagles value as highly as other teams but LSU's Patrick Queen and Oklahoma's Kenneth Murray could both upgrade the unit.
Similarly, the departure of Malcolm Jenkins will be a blow and right now the Eagles only solution seems to be an in-house positional switch for Jalen Mills. Either Grant Delpit or Xavier McKinney would be viable options at this point of the draft.
Bearing in mind the Eagles need to get younger at WR and conscious of the fact that DeSean Jackson last managed a 16-game season way back in 2013, I have the Eagles looking at Jalen Reagor as a top-notch deep threat alternative
Pick Fact - The Eagles had no WR with more than 500 receiving yards for the first time since 1966
22. Minnesota Vikings (via Buffalo in Stefon Diggs trade) WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado)
Prior to the Diggs trade Minnesota lacked depth at WR. Now the group demands urgent attention. Adam Thielen had a down year whilst battling injuries and there is really only 2019 7th rounder Bisi Johnson behind Thielen who has offered any production.
Fortunately the Vikings pick at #22 and #25 on Day One, and it's probably more a question of which of these picks is spent on a receiver. Looking at the two teams picking here after the Vikes, I'd probably make a good case for Minnesota taking the receiver here. Both the Pats and Saints could be keying on WR depth.
So who would the Vikes likely be interested in? Well, I've 5 receivers already off the board but the likes of Baylor's Denzel Mimms, Colorado's Laviska Shenault or Arizona State's Brandon Aiyuk all come into contention.
Mimms had a really impressive combine but has a penchant for simple drops alongside highlight reels catches. Aiyuk is also explosive but is a bit of a one season wonder right now. For me Shenault has the highest upside and whilst not the finished package is a more complete WR and the Vikes need an immediate starter
Pick Fact - The Vikings have only selected at #22 once before in their history. They selected Florida WR Percy Harvin back in 2009
23. New England Patriots DE A.J Epenesa (Iowa)
Last year N'Keal Harry became the first WR drafted in the 1st round by Bill Belichick for New England. The jury is still out on Harry, but with the WR depth of the 2020 class matching a team need, could Belichick double down in 2020? Could we even see a potential move for Tom Brady's replacement? This figures to be a watershed season for the Pats, just how will they re-shape the future of the franchise with Brady in Tampa?
My initial efforts at a mock typically included A.J Epenesa to the Patriots. He seems to fit their mould of on-field performance far outweighing the typical testing metrics. Epenesa seems to be drifting based on an underwhelming combine performance whereas people really need to remember 22 sacks, 8 forced fumbles and 7 pass deflections over the last 2 college seasons.
I still think the Patriots could be looking QB. Yes they're talking up Jarrett Stidham and promising Brian Hoyer a shot to oust him in training camp.
However, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots made a move should any of the top 3 QB's slide or maybe they're interested in Utah State's Jordan Love who has franchise QB qualities and is most likely still on the board at #23. I'm looking forward to seeing where Belichick goes, not just in the draft but in the 2020 season less Tom Brady.
Pick Fact - Everyone remembers former Patriot Tom Brady was selected 199th in the 2000 draft, as the 7th QB off the board. But here's a list of the 6 players the Patriots picked before Brady : OG Adrian Klemm, RB J.R Redmond, OT Greg Randall, TE Dave Stachelski, DT Jeff Marriott and DB Antwan Harris. They totalled 65 starts between them, by comparison Brady had 283 on his own.
24. New Orleans Saints LB Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma)
The Saints only own 5 picks in this years draft and don't pick again until the 3rd round after this spot. This potentially makes them a trade down candidate, but that said, it's a pretty complete roster so they could sit pat here.
I think their draft needs are limited but I feel their offense would be more dangerous with a true deep threat at the receiver position. The signing of Emmanuel Sanders is an ideal fit in their offense but a true burner would open up space for Sanders, Michael Thomas, Jared Cook etc who all excel on the short and intermediate routes. It will be interesting how the Saints view this need and the depth of this draft class at WR.
However, in my mock I project a pick on the other side of the ball. Demario Davis plays lights out but is entering a contract year. Alongside him sit Kiko Alonso and Alex Anzalone, two oft-injured players who could easily be upgraded here at #24. I see Kenneth Murray as an ideal upgrade to the unit. Still only 21, he has three years of starting experience at Oklahoma averaging over 128 tackles per season over the last 2 years. He is a high energy player with blazing 4.52 speed. Yes his coverage skills will need improving to fully utilise that speed effectively, but he has all the tools.
The other possibility here could be Jordan Love if he gets past the Patriots. Drew Brees is 41 years old and only Sean Payton believes Taysom Hill can be his successor. Now would be an ideal opportunity to groom a more likely candidate.
However, on the basis of the Brees era closing shortly, I'm going with someone who can contribute in this narrowing window, and have Kenneth Murray heading to the Big Easy and taking an immediate starting role on this defense.
Pick Fact - The Saints own 5 picks in this years draft. This is tied with Kansas City for the fewest picks in 2020.
25. Minnesota Vikings CB Jeff Gladney (TCU)
The Vikings having addressed arguably their biggest hole at #22 and will probably re-visit the WR position again for more depth but I'd imagine during Day Two or Three of the draft, not here. Instead they can take a look at the highest ranked players on their board.
The Vikes let their best Guard Josh Kline leave in a cap related move and are reliant on Dru Samia who struggled in relief last year moving into a starting role on an offense. I could certainly see a Tackle being selected and a re-shuffle involving a move inside for Riley Reiff.
I also think the success of Mike Zimmer defenses start up front. Danielle Hunter has turned into one of the leagues best but the Vikes did not extend Everson Griffen. Whilst Ifeadi Odenigbo had a really good year in 2019, the depth behind the starters is non-existent. The Vikes are one of the league's best at turning outstanding athletes into great football players and I could certainly see the appeal of Yetur Gross-Matos in Zimmers D.
However, I can't look past the departures of CB's Trae Waynes, Xavier Rhodes and Mackensie Alexander this off-season. The Vikes corners struggled immensely and they've cleared house. TCU's Jeff Gladney or Utah's Jaylon Johnson both excel in man and would be well suited to the Vikes defensive scheme.
26. Miami Dolphins (via Houston in Laremy Tunsil trade) S Xavier McKinney (Alabama)
Assuming no trades, the Dolphins arrive at their 3rd pick of the draft and it's still only Day One. As a recap, I've had them secure their QB and Edge rusher earlier in the day and they'll be looking for another difference maker here.
I've considered RB De'Andre Swift out of Georgia who is a do-it-all feature back. The Dolphins rush attack was dire all season and Swift could provide an impetus similar to Josh Jacobs influence on the Raiders offense last year.
However, I think that value wise there are other backs not that far behind Swift who the Dolphins could turn to in latter rounds, so Swift here may be more of a luxury pick than the most effective value selection.
There is a definite need at LT but again I feel the immediate starting calibre Tackles are off the board. I'm sure Houston's Josh Jones and Georgia's Isaiah Wilson would disagree but I feel both would benefit from a redshirt year.
So my biggest impact selection for Miami?
I have them selecting DB Xavier McKinney who is a swiss army knife of a Safety. He may not quite have the size and athleticism of Isaiah Simmons but has that kind of versatility having played over 200 snaps at each of Safety, Slot Corner and up in the box. He's a do-it-all Safety and Brian Flores could easily view him as Miami's version of the Patrick Chung role in New England. McKinney can do-it-all and would be another solid pick for the Dolphins.
27. Seattle Seahawks EDGE Yatur Matur-Gross (Penn State)
I think Seattle's main needs to address in the draft are on both sides of the trenches. I see an edge rusher or an interior O-lineman as the main priorities to address in this years draft.
Looking at the availability of players at #27 in these positions I'd think the top candidates would be Michigan's Cesar Ruiz on the interior O-line and a choice of Yetur Mator-Gross or Zack Baun coming off the edge. There is still a heap of value too in terms of S Grant Delpit, CB Jaylon Johnson or indeed any RB from DeAndre Swift, J.K Dobbins or Jonathan Taylor if Seattle looked elsewhere.
However, with the status of Jadeveon Clowney unclear the Seahawks are most likely to look towards the pass rush. Certainly Matur-Gross would fit the Seahawks profile. He could be a day one starter at DE having been used all across the line at Penn State. He's strong against the run and with development of his pass rush skills has serious athletic ability to become a potentially dominant pass rush force.
Pick Fact - Since 2012 the Seahawks have only made three selections in the first round of the draft
28. Baltimore Ravens LB Patrick Queen (LSU)
The Ravens continually draft exceptionally well, even in the post Ozzie Newsome era.
Their main positional needs match up exceedingly well with the first round talent left on the board. C.J Mosley departed last offseason to the Jets and this year the Ravens allowed Patrick Onwuasor to leave for the same destination. Well it just so happens LSU's Patrick Queen remains available at #28.
Queen played the majority of his college snaps at LSU as an ILB but projects well to a MIKE role. He's built like a modern LB, and should excel in space and in coverage. Queen's high football IQ will serve him well but he'll probably be asked to add a few pounds of muscle for his hybrid LB/S build to stand the every down rigours at LB. There's a starting role on this defense immediately for someone like Queen and that's the real value of this pick for the Ravens on a well rounded roster.
My alternative pick here could possibly be an edge rusher. Matt Judon is playing 2020 on the franchise tag and the Ravens truly haven't replaced Terrell Suggs if we're being honest. With my mock having Matur-Gross just off the board a pick earlier, I'll stick with Queen though alternative picks here could be Zack Baun or Terrell Lewis.
Pick Fact - For a team known for their defense, the Ravens have only selected one defensive linemen as their first round pick in franchise history, Haloti Ngata #12 overall in 2006
29. Tennessee Titans CB A.J Terrell (Clemson)
Replacing Jack Conklin who left for big-money to the Browns will be a priority in the draft but I'm struggling to see who would be the value pick at #29 unless there is a surprising fall of one of the higher ranked Tackles. I think names to consider might be Isaiah Thomas and Josh Jones whilst the name Ezra Cleveland keeps popping up linked to Tennessee.
However, I think the Titans will look at their draft board and take a best player available option. For me I think it likely that could be Clemson's A.J Terrell. If it were not for LSU's Ja'Marr Chase burning him in the Championship game I think Terrell would have been long off the board. Terrell did not allow 60+ yards against a single WR his whole college career (37 games) until the LSU match-up. That's extraordinary consistency.
At 6'1 and with a 4.42 at the combine he stacks up nicely as a long press corner.
Pick Fact - The Houston Oilers re-located to Tennessee in 1997, changing their name to the Titans in 1999. Their first ever draft pick was DE Jevon "the Freak" Kearse, selected #16 overall.
30. Green Bay Packers WR Tee Higgins (Clemson)
This pick shouts out WR, then you take a look at other roster needs and it still shouts WR, then you think about it some more and again think WR. Getting the picture?
Davante Adams is a true WR1 but the Packers supporting cast behind him have not put up gaudy numbers. Devin Funchess was signed to a one year prove-it deal but he too has averaged less than 500 yards receiving across his first 5 NFL seasons.
I think the WR options remain numerous but Tee Higgins, Denzel Mims and Brandon Aiyuk all look potential candidates at around #30. Using the Devin Funchess free agency signing as a bit of a template guide, I have mocked Clemson's 6'4 Tee Higgins here to Green Bay.
With over 2,100 receiving yards over his final 2 years at Clemson plus 25 receiving TD's Higgins is not only a big target but has been consistently productive.
If the Packers look elsewhere, could they be lining up an eventual successor for Aaron Rodgers even? There are signs of decline though right now that's arguably from great to good, but he will hit 37 during the season. I'm not sure how receptive Rodgers would be to see such a move when he undoubtedly needs weapons now. I'm discounting the option, but there's some logic to it.
Pick Fact - The last time the Packers spent a first round pick on a skill position on offense was QB Aaron Rodgers in 2005
31. San Francisco 49ers S Grant Delpit (LSU)
For me, this pick at #31 is an almost dead cert to be traded away. With the 49ers not back on the clock until #156 I think they'll be looking for extra picks. I'd suggest that if Jordan Love is still on the board here then a QB hungry team will look to come back into Rd1 and secure that 5th year option on Love.
I have a no-trade rule for my mock, so keeping it quite simple I'm just going to have the Niners taking the best player that I have left on my board.
I have LSU Safety Grant Delpit still available late in the 1st round. It's not necessarily a team need, with Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward on their roster, but Grant Delpit is a centre field enforcer. You don't have many freshman starting on a successful LSU team but Delpit was that man back in 2017. He may have had a down year in 2019 but on 2018 form could have seen himself as a top 15 selection.
Delpit will divide opinion amongst many teams. His length and coverage abilities are perfectly suited to that of a modern NFL safety, but a history of poor tackling will put off some teams who want their Safeties to be that reliable last lines of defense. With Delpit you need to reconcile the blanket coverage ability and 7 interceptions over the last 2 seasons with 36 missed tackles over the same period.
I'll simply have the 49ers taking the best player available here - but most likely trading the pick away.
Pick Fact - Assuming no trades, with the 49ers selecting at #13 and #31 they theoretically get the second day of the draft off. They are not scheduled to pick again until #156 in the 5th round
32. Kansas City Chiefs IOL Cesar Ruiz (Michigan)
OK there's two picks I'd love to see the Chiefs make.
Drafting Georgia's De'Andre Swift would almost seem unfair. The Super Bowl Champs taking the best RB in the draft. Swift would be a good fit for the Chiefs as he can do everything asked of him in terms of running, receiving and pass protect.
The other pick I'd really enjoy would be the selection of Penn State's WR K.J Hamler. To see him in KC's offense right now would be amazing. He's an electric vertical threat and in the open-field his vision is top-shelf. At only 5'9 he's not going to be a WR1 but put him in an offense with Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman and that open field RAC ability from the three of them would terrify defenses.
However, back to reality and I'm not sure the Chiefs stay here at #32. Owning only 5 picks they could be a trade down candidate. If they trade down maybe I still get to see Swift and Hamler as Chiefs in 2020.
However, assuming the Chiefs remain at #32 then perhaps the more sensible pick is someone like Cesar Ruiz. Ranked the top interior lineman of the draft, Ruiz has played both Guard and Center at Michigan. When you have someone like Patrick Mahomes on your team, priority #1 has to be to keep him safe and upright. Ruiz would be a solid, safe pick that the consistently good teams in the NFL make.
Pick Fact - Assuming the Chiefs don't trade out of this pick, it will be only the second time in 5 years they've made a 1st round selection. The other pick was of course the reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes, selected #10 overall in 2017
A few months ago the consensus pick here was WR but the trade for DeAndre Hopkins probably means this is much less likely.The Cards may instead look to focus on improvements in the trenches. The Arizona O-line has been often ignored in the draft with only one pick spent in the first 3 rounds since 2016. Whilst Kyler Murray is mobile and elusive, help is needed in this area.
The Arizona offense runs a lot of screens and the mobility of their O-linemen are keys to this success. Tristan Wirfs became the first freshman to start for Iowa in the Kirk Ferentz era and has consistently improved year-on-year. He's athletically gifted for an O-lineman, smooth and powerful and has experience at both Tackle spots. There are some who feel he may be best suited to Guard but he'll get a good shot at proving he can hack it outside first.
Pick Fact - It's surprisingly not well known that Joe Namath was the then St Louis Cardinals 1st round pick of the 1965 draft (#12 overall). These were the days prior to the AFL-NFL and Namath instead decided to sign for the New York Jets. The rest, as they say, is history.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars DT Derrick Brown (Auburn)
The Jaguars made a cap saving of $20m when deciding not to take up the option year of DT Marcel Dareus contract and surprisingly traded away Calais Campbell to the Baltimore Ravens for only a 5th round pick. I suspect the future of Yannick Ngakoue could influence where the Jaguars go with the first of their 2020 selections.
I think the focus is likely in the trenches on either side of the board, with many experts suggesting a potential LT selection allowing Cam Robinson to move inside to Guard. However, the Jaguars previous success has been built around defense and I think the value pick at #9 would be Derrick Brown from Auburn's formidable line. Brown would upgrade their run defense immediately but just as important for this team is the off-field leadership he would bring to the unit. It might not be the flashiest pick but Brown is the sort of player needed on every defense.
Should Ngakoue move on pre-draft then I could see the Jags potentially going after LSU's K'Lavon Chaisson as a replacement edge rusher. The one leftfield selection could be a QB if Jacksonville aren't truly certain about Gardner Minshew though the trade of Nick Foles would hint that he has the teams confidence.
Pick Stat - The Jags currently own two 1st round picks at #9 and #20. The last time they had multiple 1st round picks was back in 1998 when they selected RB Fred Taylor at #9 and S Donovan Darius at #25. They played a combined 20 seasons for the Jaguars
10. Cleveland Browns OT Andrew Thomas (Georgia)
The most obvious need in Cleveland is on the offensive line. Both of the Tackle spots were areas of weakness in 2019 and similarly RG saw Eric Kush benched midseason in favour of Wyatt Teller. The team began to address the line in free agency with the acquisition of RT Jack Conklin from the Titans, so it's specifically the LT position that Cleveland needs to invest in.It's a good draft class for O-linemen so I don't think the Browns are forcing a positional pick by any means. The top linemen I have available here are Jedrick Wills and Andrew Thomas. Wills is the perhaps more athletically gifted but Thomas the more experienced and importantly perhaps the player more naturally suited at LT.
Thomas was a 3-yr starter on one of college footballs best O-lines, with the last 2 years spent at Left Tackle. It only seems right that it would take another Thomas to finally fill the void left by the retirement of Browns legend Joe Thomas.
Pick Fact - Yes the last time the Browns drafted an Offensive Tackle in the first round it was indeed Browns legend Joe Thomas, drafted #3 overall in 2007
11. NY Jets WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama)
The Jets have two glaring needs on offense - the need to protect Sam Darnold and the need to give him some weapons. This is the perfect draft class to address these needs. Improvement at both these positions should in turn free up some space for their one true franchise talent on offense, Le'veon Bell. If they can then find that elusive pass rusher too, they will have hit the jackpot.
It's been 8 years since the Falcons traded up to select Julio Jones from Alabama, but this JJ can follow in the footsteps of Julio, Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley who have all come off the Alabama production line as genuine 1st round picks over the last decade.
Jeudy is my favourite receiver in this class and can line up outside or in the slot with equal effectiveness. With 24 receiving TD's over the previous 2 seasons he has the production to match his enormous potential. Sam Darnold immediately becomes a better QB overnight.
Pick Fact - Aside from QB, the Jets have not spent a first round pick on an offensive player since 2008 (Purdue TE Dustin Keller selected #30)
12.
Mike Mayock enters his second draft as GM of the Raiders with multiple first round picks again. Free agency managed to fill some holes at LB (Cory Littleton, Nick Kwiatkoski), and the signing of Marcus Mariota from the Titans added some QB insurance (or competition) for Derek Carr. Mayock also trebled down on veterans from the Cowboys (Jason Witten, Jeff Heath and Maliek Collins).
However, it's the draft where Mike Mayock truly shines. Here he loses the chance to make-up for the failed Antonio Brown trade from last year with an AB clone (in terms of playing style!) in the draft, as I have mocked Jerry Jeudy to the Jets just one pick earlier.
However, I think the Raiders likely stick to WR here and pick another WR who many have ranked as the best in class, selecting CeeDee Lamb from Oklahoma. Lamb has been a TD machine for Oklahoma, with 32 TD receptions in his 3 years on campus. He posted 1325 receiving yards in 2019 at a pop of 21.4 per reception with an incredible 26 missed tackles once in the open field.By providing Carr with the weapons on offense, the franchise gets to see if he can get near his 2015/2016 form that entered him onto MVP discussions. Ultimately the Raiders will be using 2020 to make decisions on whether they exit Carr or build around him in their new Las Vegas home.
Pick Fact - Sorry to do this Raiders fans, but I almost hope you don't select a Derek Carr replacement in the first round. The previous two times the Raiders have taken a QB in the 1st round were Jamarcus Russell (#1 overall in 2007) and Todd Marinovich (#24 in 1991) competing for the ignominy of second place on the biggest QB draft busts of all-time behind Ryan Leaf.
13. San Francisco 49ers (via the Colts in DeForest Buckner trade) WR Henry Ruggs (Alabama)
The fact I've mocked two WR's immediately earlier shouldn't bother the 49ers too much. I think they'd welcome Jeudy or Lamb onto their roster but it could be almost a better fit for them to select Ruggs.
With Shanahan's offense designed around speed, there was arguably no faster receiver in all of college football last year than Ruggs. If they can get him in space or behind a defense with his 4.27 speed, he's gone. We knew he was fast but the combine just quantified how fast. His ability to stretch the defense should only add to the effectiveness of Kittle and Samuel and help Jimmy Garoppolo.
Pick Fact - Feeling superstitious? The Colts, in existence since 1953, have never picked at #13. They relinquished this spot in 2020 due to the acquisition of DeForest Buckner
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OT Jedrick Wills (Alabama)
The notable addition of Tom Brady in Tampa probably changes the Buccs draft strategy somewhat. Offensive Tackle was already high up on the need-list but keeping a less than mobile 43-yr old QB upright possibly becomes priority #1.The Buccaneers conceded 47 sacks last year though admittedly Jameis Winston contributed somewhat to that figure by holding onto the ball longer than most Quarterbacks. However, even if Brady will distribute the ball quicker the Buccs need an O-line that can create space for a below average running game.
Should the Buccs focus elsewhere then they're probably considering a D-line addition with Javon
Kinlaw a strong possibility.
However, my numbers stack up here with the last of the sure-fire 1st round O-linemen still on the board. Jedrick Wills also happens to have 29 college starts at the RT position where he would naturally slot in to the Tampa line. He's powerful but surprisingly athletic. Wills would provide a boost to the run game immediately. Whilst his Guard like frame may put off some teams, Wills should be given every opportunity to make the RT spot his own first. If he does eventually shunt inside, the Buccs could have a future Pro Bowl guard.
I fully expect the Buccs to continue bolstering the offense on Day Two by adding a RB, with prime candidates DeAndre Swift, Cam Akers or Clyde Edwards-Helaire all offering typical Patriots type versatility as runners / receivers.
Pick Fact - The Buccaneers have only ever selected at #14 once before. If I'm right with my mock here then that's twice at #14 and two selections at the Tackle position (Kenyatta Walker #14 in 2001)
15. Denver Broncos WR Justin Jefferson (LSU)
However, I think the more urgent need is to bolster the Denver offense and help Drew Lock in his first full year as starting QB.
My initial thoughts were towards the O-line, but I suspect that just like in my mock, the top 4 O-linemen are off the board by #15.
I also think that it's obvious that Lock would benefit from more receiving weapons. TE Noah Fant will hopefully kick-on from his rookie year where his big-play ability was interspersed with dropped catches, but beyond Courtland Sutton no Denver wideout had over 300 yards receiving in 2019. This should be a position Denver re-visit again during this draft as there's simply no-one behind Sutton on that depth chart right now.
Draft Fact - Three of the Denver Broncos first six 1st round picks ended up in the Hall of Fame (Merlin Olsen 1962, Bob Brown 1964 and Floyd Little 1967)
16. Atlanta Falcons DT Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina)
The Falcons needs are glaringly obvious. They seem well set on offense following the offseason acquisitions of Todd Gurley, Laquon Treadwell and Hayden Hurst and will hope that their two 2019 first round picks Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary kick on and solidify the right side of their O-line. The problem LG spot will be a training camp battle between James Carpenter, Jamon Brown and whoever else they drag into Camp.
The focus of the 2020 draft will be heavily based on the defensive side of the ball. They spent big re-uniting Dante Fowler with Coach Quinn but are still light on the defensive line following departures of Vic Beasley, Jack Crawford and Adrian Clayborn. The organisation doesn't seem all in on Takk McKinley either so they may look for added insurance as McKinley likely reaches free agency in 2021.
The Falcons released veteran corner Desmond Trufant to create some cap space and currently have 2019 4th rounder Kendall Sheffield manning one of the starting corner positions. The free agent departure of Devondre Campbell to Arizona also creates a need in the LB group, though this is likely a later round depth pick with Foye Oluokun more than deserving his opportunity of greater playing time.
So who are the potential candidates? On the edge, the most likely option would be LSU's K'Lavon Chaisson if still on the board. An excellent first step and athletically gifted, Chaisson looks like a Quinn type defender. The one question mark on Chaisson is a concern that his limited production on a successful team doesn't quite translate to his remarkable athletic talents. The alternative edge option could be A.J Epenesa who is the counterbalance to this, not measuring well athletically but has consistently maxed out his talents at Iowa posting 11.5 sacks in 2019.
The corner options are numerous with the most popular pick (taking for granted Okudah goes early) being C.J Henderson from Miami with many experts predicting Thomas Dimitroff will move up the draft to ensure the Falcons land him. If Henderson is gone, Kristian Fulton or Trevon Diggs could feature as alternative selections.
Kinlaw could be a boom or bust pick but this Front Office and coaching staff know that after 2019 they're on the hot seat and need to roll some dice.
You can take it for granted that the Falcons address the secondary early on Day Two if indeed they do pursue Kinlaw or Chaisson here.
Pick Fact - Atlanta's first ever draft pick happened to be 16th overall back in 1966, selecting QB Randy Johnson. The only other time the Falcons have picked at this spot was back in 1983 when they selected DT Mike Pitts out of Alabama
17. Dallas Cowboys CB C.J Henderson (Florida)
The Cowboys biggest moves in free agency were in retention (Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper) and then replacing key losses (Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe and HaHa Clinton Dix brought in as Michael Bennett, Maliek Collins and Jeff Heath departed).
With these losses in mind it's likely that this will influence the early round draft decisions.
I see the Cowboys options as potentially K'Lavon Chaisson or A.J Epenesa to line up on the edge opposite DeMarcus Lawrence or a CB such as C.J Henderson or Kristian Fulton. They could even consider someone such as Xavier McKinney or Grant Delpit to play Safety too.
I think in all though, the Cowboys need a starting corner the most. I have Henderson ranked higher than Fulton, especially for Dallas, as they made a conscious decision to move on from Jones whom I think the team respected coverage wise but wanted more big plays from (Jones only had 2 picks in 73 starts in Dallas).
Pick Fact - No offensive player has been selected at #17 in the draft since 2011 (OT Nate Solder)
18. Miami Dolphins (via Steelers, Minkah Fitzpatrick trade) EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson (LSU)
Having secured a new QB at #5 the Dolphins focus and need should be to upgrade the O-line that will protect him for the next decade. However, I do feel that a pick around #18 may be a bit early to select the 5th O-lineman of the draft. The potential candidates are probably Georgia's Isaiah Wilson or Houston's Josh Jones. Both have plenty of upside but probably need a little more schooling before taking on a starting role.
Instead I have Miami attempting to address their pass rush. They posted an NFL low 23 sacks in 2019 and have the opportunity to select the most promising edge rusher on the board not named Chase Young.I have struggled with which direction Miami could go here but think Chaisson most likely if they address their pass rush. Chaisson is ultra-explosive. Yes the Dolphins pick again at #26 so they could hold-out for A.J Epenesa there as he seems like a Patriots type defender who doesn't test well but just produces on the field. That might appeal to Brian Flores. However, I can't overlook the potential of Chaisson so I'm presuming that neither can Miami.
Pick Fact - Of Miami's last 8 first round picks only 3 remain on their roster. The 3 former first round picks traded away in 2019 all made the Pro Bowl representing their new teams
19. Las Vegas Raiders (via Chicago in Khalil Mack trade) CB Kristian Fulton (LSU)
Having acquired their new WR1 at #12 I see the Raiders likely focusing on defensive backs with their second pick of the first round. Following the departure of former 1st rounder Karl Joseph (#14 in 2016) the Raiders could have been considering Safety here, with Grant Delpit and Xavier McKinney likely options.
However, I've discounted this following the Raiders signing of ex-Cowboy Jeff Heath and ex-Brown Damarious Randall to compete to link up with 2019 first rounder Johnathan Abram. Instead I think the focus remains in the secondary but at the cornerback position.
So who would the Raiders go for? Well using the Trayvon Mullen pick last year as a benchmark, both Cameron Dantzler and Trevon Diggs are big corners similar to Mullen.
Similarly, Mayock could go back to Clemson again this year and select A.J Terrell. However, I have Mayock taking LSU's Kristian Fulton who has consistently been one of the stickiest cover corners over the last 2 seasons.
Don't discount a double up of WR picks at #12 and #19. Yes it would be a surprise, but it's a need position and if you're going to do it, this is probably the year to pull the trigger twice.
Pick Fact - the last time the Raiders had a pick at #19 in the draft was back in 1974. They selected OT Henry Lawrence who played in 187 games over 13 seasons for the Raiders
20. Jacksonville Jags (via Rams in Jalen Ramsey trade) CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama)
The third successive team to be taking their second pick of the 2020 Draft and we're only 20 picks in. This is the pick obtained in the Jalen Ramsey trade so it's possibly a lazy link to mock the Jags taking his successor here, but it would be a pick of need.
In an attempt to avoid the obvious, I considered some other possibilities. Potentially a big play WR in a well stocked class. HC Doug Marrone has talked up moving defenses backwards too, so potentially a roadgrader of an O-lineman, or edge rusher with the risk of Yannick Ngakoue departing Jacksonville too.If he does depart pre-draft, then all bets are off, it's probably an edge defender the Jags take somewhere in this first round.
However, laziness and need wins out here, and I have Jacksonville taking a cover corner.
Trevon Diggs at 6'2 is long and rangy. He dominated for Alabama last year, allowing only a 42.3% completion rate. He could benefit from more experience having only transitioned to CB in 2018 but all the tools are their to make an impact in the pro's.
21. Philadelphia Eagles WR Jalen Reagor (TCU)
Having nailed the Eagles selection of Andre Dillard last year I'm keen to hit home on this pick too but finding the choice a little more difficult to call.
The Eagles addressed one of their main areas of concern as they acquired two of the best cover corners available in free agency. Darius Slay should become the blanket corner the Eagles have not had in a few years and Nickell Robey-Coleman should win the nickel / slot corner job.
It was surprising the Eagles Front Office didn't address the WR depth in free agency. The position was a revolving door last year and whilst it was injuries that decimated the group, there's no escaping the fact that their projected starters are both on the wrong side of 30. Fortunately this draft has enough top-end talent and later round depth for the Eagles to take a couple of guys from this class to contribute.
The general consensus is that Philly will select a WR early in this draft. I already have 4 of the top WR's off the board here, but I still think the Eagles will have done their homework and target a receiver early. The remaining options that I have on my board all could have some fit into the Eagles offense.
I could certainly see interest in TCU's Jalen Reagor. The Eagles offense has always functioned better with a vertical threat and when DeSean Jackson went down in Wk3 Carson Wentz lost his only deep threat. Reagor looks a perfect fit for a team not afraid to challenge defenses vertically. He has impressive acceleration and top-speed.The Eagles could also consider Colorado's Laviska Shenault. Whilst he's suffered playing in a dysfunctional college offense last year, his physical traits are outstanding and given the ball in the open-field in this Eagles offense he could be devastating.
Should Philly look elsewhere then the LB corps looks weak, especially if Nigel Brabham isn't resigned. It's not a position the Eagles value as highly as other teams but LSU's Patrick Queen and Oklahoma's Kenneth Murray could both upgrade the unit.
Similarly, the departure of Malcolm Jenkins will be a blow and right now the Eagles only solution seems to be an in-house positional switch for Jalen Mills. Either Grant Delpit or Xavier McKinney would be viable options at this point of the draft.
Bearing in mind the Eagles need to get younger at WR and conscious of the fact that DeSean Jackson last managed a 16-game season way back in 2013, I have the Eagles looking at Jalen Reagor as a top-notch deep threat alternative
Pick Fact - The Eagles had no WR with more than 500 receiving yards for the first time since 1966
22. Minnesota Vikings (via Buffalo in Stefon Diggs trade) WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado)
Prior to the Diggs trade Minnesota lacked depth at WR. Now the group demands urgent attention. Adam Thielen had a down year whilst battling injuries and there is really only 2019 7th rounder Bisi Johnson behind Thielen who has offered any production.
Fortunately the Vikings pick at #22 and #25 on Day One, and it's probably more a question of which of these picks is spent on a receiver. Looking at the two teams picking here after the Vikes, I'd probably make a good case for Minnesota taking the receiver here. Both the Pats and Saints could be keying on WR depth.So who would the Vikes likely be interested in? Well, I've 5 receivers already off the board but the likes of Baylor's Denzel Mimms, Colorado's Laviska Shenault or Arizona State's Brandon Aiyuk all come into contention.
Mimms had a really impressive combine but has a penchant for simple drops alongside highlight reels catches. Aiyuk is also explosive but is a bit of a one season wonder right now. For me Shenault has the highest upside and whilst not the finished package is a more complete WR and the Vikes need an immediate starter
Pick Fact - The Vikings have only selected at #22 once before in their history. They selected Florida WR Percy Harvin back in 2009
23. New England Patriots DE A.J Epenesa (Iowa)
Last year N'Keal Harry became the first WR drafted in the 1st round by Bill Belichick for New England. The jury is still out on Harry, but with the WR depth of the 2020 class matching a team need, could Belichick double down in 2020? Could we even see a potential move for Tom Brady's replacement? This figures to be a watershed season for the Pats, just how will they re-shape the future of the franchise with Brady in Tampa?
I still think the Patriots could be looking QB. Yes they're talking up Jarrett Stidham and promising Brian Hoyer a shot to oust him in training camp.
However, I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots made a move should any of the top 3 QB's slide or maybe they're interested in Utah State's Jordan Love who has franchise QB qualities and is most likely still on the board at #23. I'm looking forward to seeing where Belichick goes, not just in the draft but in the 2020 season less Tom Brady.
Pick Fact - Everyone remembers former Patriot Tom Brady was selected 199th in the 2000 draft, as the 7th QB off the board. But here's a list of the 6 players the Patriots picked before Brady : OG Adrian Klemm, RB J.R Redmond, OT Greg Randall, TE Dave Stachelski, DT Jeff Marriott and DB Antwan Harris. They totalled 65 starts between them, by comparison Brady had 283 on his own.
24. New Orleans Saints LB Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma)
The Saints only own 5 picks in this years draft and don't pick again until the 3rd round after this spot. This potentially makes them a trade down candidate, but that said, it's a pretty complete roster so they could sit pat here.
I think their draft needs are limited but I feel their offense would be more dangerous with a true deep threat at the receiver position. The signing of Emmanuel Sanders is an ideal fit in their offense but a true burner would open up space for Sanders, Michael Thomas, Jared Cook etc who all excel on the short and intermediate routes. It will be interesting how the Saints view this need and the depth of this draft class at WR.However, in my mock I project a pick on the other side of the ball. Demario Davis plays lights out but is entering a contract year. Alongside him sit Kiko Alonso and Alex Anzalone, two oft-injured players who could easily be upgraded here at #24. I see Kenneth Murray as an ideal upgrade to the unit. Still only 21, he has three years of starting experience at Oklahoma averaging over 128 tackles per season over the last 2 years. He is a high energy player with blazing 4.52 speed. Yes his coverage skills will need improving to fully utilise that speed effectively, but he has all the tools.
The other possibility here could be Jordan Love if he gets past the Patriots. Drew Brees is 41 years old and only Sean Payton believes Taysom Hill can be his successor. Now would be an ideal opportunity to groom a more likely candidate.
However, on the basis of the Brees era closing shortly, I'm going with someone who can contribute in this narrowing window, and have Kenneth Murray heading to the Big Easy and taking an immediate starting role on this defense.
Pick Fact - The Saints own 5 picks in this years draft. This is tied with Kansas City for the fewest picks in 2020.
25. Minnesota Vikings CB Jeff Gladney (TCU)
The Vikings having addressed arguably their biggest hole at #22 and will probably re-visit the WR position again for more depth but I'd imagine during Day Two or Three of the draft, not here. Instead they can take a look at the highest ranked players on their board.
The Vikes let their best Guard Josh Kline leave in a cap related move and are reliant on Dru Samia who struggled in relief last year moving into a starting role on an offense. I could certainly see a Tackle being selected and a re-shuffle involving a move inside for Riley Reiff.I also think the success of Mike Zimmer defenses start up front. Danielle Hunter has turned into one of the leagues best but the Vikes did not extend Everson Griffen. Whilst Ifeadi Odenigbo had a really good year in 2019, the depth behind the starters is non-existent. The Vikes are one of the league's best at turning outstanding athletes into great football players and I could certainly see the appeal of Yetur Gross-Matos in Zimmers D.
However, I can't look past the departures of CB's Trae Waynes, Xavier Rhodes and Mackensie Alexander this off-season. The Vikes corners struggled immensely and they've cleared house. TCU's Jeff Gladney or Utah's Jaylon Johnson both excel in man and would be well suited to the Vikes defensive scheme.
26. Miami Dolphins (via Houston in Laremy Tunsil trade) S Xavier McKinney (Alabama)
Assuming no trades, the Dolphins arrive at their 3rd pick of the draft and it's still only Day One. As a recap, I've had them secure their QB and Edge rusher earlier in the day and they'll be looking for another difference maker here.
I've considered RB De'Andre Swift out of Georgia who is a do-it-all feature back. The Dolphins rush attack was dire all season and Swift could provide an impetus similar to Josh Jacobs influence on the Raiders offense last year.However, I think that value wise there are other backs not that far behind Swift who the Dolphins could turn to in latter rounds, so Swift here may be more of a luxury pick than the most effective value selection.
There is a definite need at LT but again I feel the immediate starting calibre Tackles are off the board. I'm sure Houston's Josh Jones and Georgia's Isaiah Wilson would disagree but I feel both would benefit from a redshirt year.
So my biggest impact selection for Miami?
I have them selecting DB Xavier McKinney who is a swiss army knife of a Safety. He may not quite have the size and athleticism of Isaiah Simmons but has that kind of versatility having played over 200 snaps at each of Safety, Slot Corner and up in the box. He's a do-it-all Safety and Brian Flores could easily view him as Miami's version of the Patrick Chung role in New England. McKinney can do-it-all and would be another solid pick for the Dolphins.
27. Seattle Seahawks EDGE Yatur Matur-Gross (Penn State)
I think Seattle's main needs to address in the draft are on both sides of the trenches. I see an edge rusher or an interior O-lineman as the main priorities to address in this years draft.
However, with the status of Jadeveon Clowney unclear the Seahawks are most likely to look towards the pass rush. Certainly Matur-Gross would fit the Seahawks profile. He could be a day one starter at DE having been used all across the line at Penn State. He's strong against the run and with development of his pass rush skills has serious athletic ability to become a potentially dominant pass rush force.
Pick Fact - Since 2012 the Seahawks have only made three selections in the first round of the draft
28. Baltimore Ravens LB Patrick Queen (LSU)
The Ravens continually draft exceptionally well, even in the post Ozzie Newsome era.
Their main positional needs match up exceedingly well with the first round talent left on the board. C.J Mosley departed last offseason to the Jets and this year the Ravens allowed Patrick Onwuasor to leave for the same destination. Well it just so happens LSU's Patrick Queen remains available at #28.Queen played the majority of his college snaps at LSU as an ILB but projects well to a MIKE role. He's built like a modern LB, and should excel in space and in coverage. Queen's high football IQ will serve him well but he'll probably be asked to add a few pounds of muscle for his hybrid LB/S build to stand the every down rigours at LB. There's a starting role on this defense immediately for someone like Queen and that's the real value of this pick for the Ravens on a well rounded roster.
My alternative pick here could possibly be an edge rusher. Matt Judon is playing 2020 on the franchise tag and the Ravens truly haven't replaced Terrell Suggs if we're being honest. With my mock having Matur-Gross just off the board a pick earlier, I'll stick with Queen though alternative picks here could be Zack Baun or Terrell Lewis.
Pick Fact - For a team known for their defense, the Ravens have only selected one defensive linemen as their first round pick in franchise history, Haloti Ngata #12 overall in 2006
29. Tennessee Titans CB A.J Terrell (Clemson)
However, I think the Titans will look at their draft board and take a best player available option. For me I think it likely that could be Clemson's A.J Terrell. If it were not for LSU's Ja'Marr Chase burning him in the Championship game I think Terrell would have been long off the board. Terrell did not allow 60+ yards against a single WR his whole college career (37 games) until the LSU match-up. That's extraordinary consistency.
At 6'1 and with a 4.42 at the combine he stacks up nicely as a long press corner.
Pick Fact - The Houston Oilers re-located to Tennessee in 1997, changing their name to the Titans in 1999. Their first ever draft pick was DE Jevon "the Freak" Kearse, selected #16 overall.
30. Green Bay Packers WR Tee Higgins (Clemson)
This pick shouts out WR, then you take a look at other roster needs and it still shouts WR, then you think about it some more and again think WR. Getting the picture?
Davante Adams is a true WR1 but the Packers supporting cast behind him have not put up gaudy numbers. Devin Funchess was signed to a one year prove-it deal but he too has averaged less than 500 yards receiving across his first 5 NFL seasons.I think the WR options remain numerous but Tee Higgins, Denzel Mims and Brandon Aiyuk all look potential candidates at around #30. Using the Devin Funchess free agency signing as a bit of a template guide, I have mocked Clemson's 6'4 Tee Higgins here to Green Bay.
With over 2,100 receiving yards over his final 2 years at Clemson plus 25 receiving TD's Higgins is not only a big target but has been consistently productive.
If the Packers look elsewhere, could they be lining up an eventual successor for Aaron Rodgers even? There are signs of decline though right now that's arguably from great to good, but he will hit 37 during the season. I'm not sure how receptive Rodgers would be to see such a move when he undoubtedly needs weapons now. I'm discounting the option, but there's some logic to it.
Pick Fact - The last time the Packers spent a first round pick on a skill position on offense was QB Aaron Rodgers in 2005
31. San Francisco 49ers S Grant Delpit (LSU)
For me, this pick at #31 is an almost dead cert to be traded away. With the 49ers not back on the clock until #156 I think they'll be looking for extra picks. I'd suggest that if Jordan Love is still on the board here then a QB hungry team will look to come back into Rd1 and secure that 5th year option on Love.
I have LSU Safety Grant Delpit still available late in the 1st round. It's not necessarily a team need, with Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward on their roster, but Grant Delpit is a centre field enforcer. You don't have many freshman starting on a successful LSU team but Delpit was that man back in 2017. He may have had a down year in 2019 but on 2018 form could have seen himself as a top 15 selection.
Delpit will divide opinion amongst many teams. His length and coverage abilities are perfectly suited to that of a modern NFL safety, but a history of poor tackling will put off some teams who want their Safeties to be that reliable last lines of defense. With Delpit you need to reconcile the blanket coverage ability and 7 interceptions over the last 2 seasons with 36 missed tackles over the same period.
I'll simply have the 49ers taking the best player available here - but most likely trading the pick away.
Pick Fact - Assuming no trades, with the 49ers selecting at #13 and #31 they theoretically get the second day of the draft off. They are not scheduled to pick again until #156 in the 5th round
32. Kansas City Chiefs IOL Cesar Ruiz (Michigan)
OK there's two picks I'd love to see the Chiefs make.
Drafting Georgia's De'Andre Swift would almost seem unfair. The Super Bowl Champs taking the best RB in the draft. Swift would be a good fit for the Chiefs as he can do everything asked of him in terms of running, receiving and pass protect.
The other pick I'd really enjoy would be the selection of Penn State's WR K.J Hamler. To see him in KC's offense right now would be amazing. He's an electric vertical threat and in the open-field his vision is top-shelf. At only 5'9 he's not going to be a WR1 but put him in an offense with Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman and that open field RAC ability from the three of them would terrify defenses.
However, back to reality and I'm not sure the Chiefs stay here at #32. Owning only 5 picks they could be a trade down candidate. If they trade down maybe I still get to see Swift and Hamler as Chiefs in 2020.However, assuming the Chiefs remain at #32 then perhaps the more sensible pick is someone like Cesar Ruiz. Ranked the top interior lineman of the draft, Ruiz has played both Guard and Center at Michigan. When you have someone like Patrick Mahomes on your team, priority #1 has to be to keep him safe and upright. Ruiz would be a solid, safe pick that the consistently good teams in the NFL make.
Pick Fact - Assuming the Chiefs don't trade out of this pick, it will be only the second time in 5 years they've made a 1st round selection. The other pick was of course the reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes, selected #10 overall in 2017
Monday, 17 February 2020
What next? A look at the roster from a salary cap perspective
With the Falcons having approximately $10million of available cap space they have some tough decisions to make on their impending free agents and will need to free up some cash space.
I'm taking a view on the major free agents here before seeing how the Falcons could free up cash via release/re-structure of guys on the roster currently under contract
Free Agents :
Must Sign
TE Austin Hooper (2019 cap $2,218,000, projected 2020 cap hit $10m)
Hooper is likely the Falcons major off season retention priority. It's going to cost to retain him though. He'll be looking for a contract in the region of a Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed paygrade which could be prohibitive for the Falcons. They'll need moves elsewhere to make this happen.
Should Sign
DE Adrian Clayborn (2019 salary $1,960,000, projected 2020 cap hit $2m)
A solid part of the rotation, if Clayborn is to return it will need to be at the right price. The Falcs need to address their pass rush and a vet leader like Clayborn might be worth the cash if the 32yr old is willing to come back and provide depth and guidance to an early round draft pick.
RB Kenjon Barner (2019 salary $895,000, projected 2020 hit $1.25m)
Barner brought a bit of excitement to the return game for the first time in a while. If the price is right this will be a no-brainer
FB Keith Smith (2019 salary $805,000 projected 2020 hit $1m)
A late preseason pick-up from the Raiders, Smith contributed on offense and particularly on special teams.The FB isn't quite extinct in the NFL and I'd like to think Smith can help the Falcs more in 2020.
Could Sign
LB Devondre Campbell (2019 cap $2,166,000, projected 2020 cap hit $3.5m)
Campbell seems to be a favourite of the coaching staff but could likely price himself out of a return to Atlanta. A sometimes liability in coverage, there are rumours of contract talks underway. I'm not sure I see a return, thanks in large part to 2018 6th rounder Foye Oluokon
CB Blidi Wreh Wilson (2019 cap $895,000)
The future of the combative corner will likely depend on the Falcons drafting strategy at corner.
DT Tyeler Davison (2019 salary $895,000, projected 2020 hit $1.5m)
Davison played really well through the first half of the season but fell away towards the back end. A lot will depend on his asking price.
P Ryan Allen (2019 salary $805,000 projected 2020 hit $1.25m)
He doesn't have the leg of a Bosher but impressed with his directional punting and would offer a cap saving if the Falcons move on from Bosher
K Younghoe Koo (2019 salary $645,000 projected 2020 hit $1.25m)
Koo hit on 88% of his FG's after replacing Matt Bryant mid-season. Koo doesn't seem to have that strong a leg but did not harm his chances of a 2020 return.
G/C Wes Schweitzer (2019 salary $2,058,000 projected 2020 hit $2m)
The Falcons have some money invested in the left guard position already with the under performing James Carpenter and Jamon Brown.They know what they'll get with Schweitzer but I'm inclined to think they'll draft a lineman ideally suited at center to groom ahead of Alex Mack's departure who will compete with Brown and Carpenter in his rookie year
Unlikely to Sign
DE Vic Beasley (2019 salary $12.8m)
The Falcons bit the bullet taking the 5th year option on Beasley after a poor 2018. Whilst results weren't terrible, he posted 8 sacks, it was not value for money. He's now 3 full seasons removed from his 15 sack sophomore year and has not developed into THE guy in Atlanta. They'll be a market for Beasley somewhere and a coach who thinks they can get the best from him. A change may suit both parties.
WR Justin Hardy (2019 cap hit $895,000)
A valued contributor at WR and on special teams, Hardy saw his playing time hit with the emergence of 2018 6th rounder Russell Gage. Hardy could be back but there's depth of talent at this position on the roster.
P Matt Bosher (2019 cap hit $2,545,000)
The fanbase, including myself, all love Matt Bosher for both his big leg and his special teams tackles. 2019 was an injury hit year for Bosher, I also don't think his leg is quite what it was. His absence saw a revolving door at the position but importantly for Atlanta proved he could be replaced by someone on a lower salary.
S Sharrod Neasman (2019 salary $720,000)
Kemal Ishmael was preferred ahead of Neasman by the coaching staff and I never really bought into that decision. I personally think Neasman has more upside and would like to see him back in 2020 but think maybe it's not too likely
DE Steven Means (2019 cap hit $895,000)
Onto IR in preseason, it's going to be hard for the 30yr old to get an opportunity on a line likely to undergo overhaul on the offseason
Thanks for the Memories
DL Jack Crawford (2019 cap hit $3,658,000)
A solid 2018 after return from injury, but 2019 was largely forgettable for Crawford. It's time to move on.
Kemal Ishmael (2019 cap hit $895,000)
The versatile safeties greatest asset is his special teams play, but my take was of a guy who was continually exposed in coverage when given playing time in the secondary. He's been a good team contributor for Atlanta but it's the end of the line now.
Potential Cap Casualties
The Should-Do
OL Ty Sambrailo - carrying a base salary in each of 2020 and 2021 in excess of $4m, Sambrailo offers versatility if I'm being kind or is a liability if being less forgiving. The question here should be when, not if. His release now creates $3.7m of cap space, a post-June 1st release allows a pro rata of signing bonus over 2020/2021 so would create $4.7m space. The only caveat here is that Atlanta doesn't have a lot of swing tackle depth behind Sambrailo
TE Luke Stocker - nothing against Stocker who has value as an in-line blocker, but the cap saving of $2.6m simply makes him expendable or a candidate for contract re-structure if he wants to stay in Atlanta.
The Could-Do
DE Allen Bailey - the Falcons could free up around $4m of cash with Bailey's release and this is a position that will go under overhaul in the offseason. Bailey only mustered a single sack and whilst providing run support, he's carrying a relatively high cap number
The Controversial Ones
C Alex Mack - still playing at a decent level, he'll be 35 next year and his release could free up around $8m of cap space. It's a possibility but there is no obvious successor on the roster and don't lose sight of how high a regard Matt Ryan holds Alex Mack, who has handled all the o-line calls since his move from Cleveland back in 2016
CB Desmond Trufant - a $15m cap hit in 2020 with over $10m dead cap money. His release would still free up nearly $5m of cap. Isaiah Oliver began to come on over the back end of the season and a potential early draft pick in the secondary could see this become more feasible
S Keanu Neal - OK this is harsh to list him here and being a DQ favourite is probably an unlikely option, but if sentiment doesn't play a part, then Neal has finished the last 2 years on IR and prior to injury in 2019 looked a half yard off the pace. His release would create $6m of cap space but at only 24 you've got to stick with faith that he'll make a 100% return
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