Colin Bell's Mock Draft 2017
Nice straight forward rules as ever - no trades projected unless confirmed prior to draft, once off the board a player can't be projected as a pick to another team.
With that said, let's get into the
1. Cleveland Browns - DE Myles Garrett (Texas A&M)
Myles Garrett is the consensus #1 prospect heading into the draft and supplemented his reputation with an outstanding combine. He posted 31 sacks and a further 35 hurries in his college career and improved against the run each year. There's some scout smoke around his motor and whether he was that dominant against top-level competition but he has the tool set to potentially become an All Pro very quickly.
Yes the Browns need a QB too, so it's typical Browns luck that this is a draft class that lacks that sure-fire franchise QB. The Browns can ill afford another 1st round QB reach (see Johnny Manziel, Brandon Weeden and Brady Quinn during the last decade alone), so picking #1 they should take the widely regarded best player available. I think they'll be tempted (for tempted maybe read into that as desperate) on QB, but I believe Garrett should be the selection barring any blockbuster trade.
2. San Francisco 49ers - S Jamal Adams (LSU)
The new Front Office and coaching staff in San Francisco face their first opportunity to improve a roster that has significantly deteriorated since the 49ers last Superbowl appearance only 5 years ago. Like the Browns, there is a strong need for a QB here and the decision makers in the organisation have the security of 6-yr contracts to invest some development time into a rookie QB.
However, unless the 49ers love one of the rookie passers such as Mitchell Trubisky, the #2 pick may be too high for the cream of this QB class. The Front Office were quick to add a couple of veteran QB's in free agency (Brian Hoyer / Matt Barkley) that lead me to believe they are bridge QB's ahead of the ultimate target of Kirk Cousins in free agency 2018.If the 49ers stay at #2, I think Jonathan Allen or Solomon Thomas could improve the pass rush and contribute to the formation of a young, potentially fearsome front with DeForest Buckner and Erik Armstead, or they could look to secondary help via cornerback Marshon Lattimore but I'm leaning towards new GM John Lynch leaning toward his old playing position with both Jamal Adams or Malik Hooker viable options at Safety. Hooker appears to be the best ball-playing safety of the two but Adams is a real tone setter on gameday with outstanding leadership skills.
Should the 49ers select either Adams or Hooker it would be the highest selection of a safety since the Browns selected the now sadly departed Eric Turner at #2 in 1991.
3. Chicago Bears - DE Solomon Thomas (Stanford)
The Bears went from 6-10 in 2015 to 3-13 in 2016 with their 3rd string QB at the helm. Despite the regression in their win-loss record there were sufficient signs of promise coming out of Soldier Field.
The enigmatic and problematic Jay Cutler was given his release and free agent signing Mike Glennon heads over from Tampa Bay. With the QB position apparently addressed, it leaves me thinking that the strongest need is for further playmakers on defense in a division that sees them face Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford twice.
Improving the pass-rush or the secondary depth would seem a wise investment. I'm not sure if the edge rushers in this class not named Myles Garrett warrant a top 5 selection but the relentless Solomon Thomas should be a safe pick on an area of need for the Bears. He can probably play end or interior lineman and is a 3-down option. I don't discount standout corner Marshon Lattimore here either.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars - RB Leonard Fournette (LSU)
Owner Shad Khan's patience finally seems to have been eroded and the regime change may not be given as much time as Gus Bradley enjoyed. Blake Bortles regressed in 2016 and it's important he bounces back. I can see the Jaguars seeking some QB insurance in the middle rounds of this years draft.
As for Rd1, I'd like to see them help Bortles rekindle his mojo with a significant upgrade at RB courtesy of Leonard Fournette, who could have success similar to Ezekiel Elliott's rookie year. Fournette is a proper bruiser of a runner and would happily carry the workload in Jacksonville.
If Fournette isn't the pick, the Jags still don't consistently pressure QB's despite the growing talent on their roster, so I could foresee an addition to the D-line rotation such as Jonathan Allen or Solomon Thomas as viable, but I will be groaning out loud if the Jags pass on Fournette.
5. Tennessee Titans - CB Marshon Lattimore (Ohio State)
The Titans broke .500 for the first time since 2011 and are showing real signs of life with talent in key areas on the roster. I believe this pick has to focus on either the secondary or by offering Marcus Mariota a serious weapon at WR1.Clemson's Mike Williams would be an intriguing option at WR or they could look towards the blazing Desean Jackson clone John Ross. However, I can't overlook the fact that the Titans ranked 32nd in yards allowed to teams WR1 and also ranked 32nd for yards allowed to teams WR2.
Cornerback help is vital and despite some concerns over previous hamstring injuries, QB's posted only a 30.2 rating when throwing against Lattimore in 2016. Marshon Lattimore appears to be the consensus potential lock down corner in the draft class. If he's off the board I still think the Titans stay with cornerback or safety here, knowing they have an additional first round pick at #18 to provide Mariota with a receiving target.
6. New York Jets - S Malik Hooker (Ohio State)
The Jets are openly canvassing suitors for this pick as they enter full rebuild mode. If they have no takers, I'd suggest help for whoever is QB in the Big Apple next year. I'd consider QB a pick here but the Jets have drafted one in each of the last 4 years and at some point they have to let their picks play themselves out.With the team having questions over QB they'd better be able to run the ball. Leonard Fournette would have been the ideal pick for the Jets but if he's gone the Jets may consider Dalvin Cook but it's been 12 years since two RB's went this high and the Jets may feel they can still obtain value from a RB in later rounds.
With Fournette gone, let's project the Jets going with best player available and taking the ball-hawking Malik Hooker who has drawn favourable comparisons with Ed Reed. He carries some questions on his tackling but if gets anywhere close to the Ed Reed comparisons the Jets won't have any complaints.
7. Los Angeles Chargers - DL Jonathan Allen (Alabama)
I think the Chargers will take either Jamal Adams or Malik Hooker to man a safety spot if they're available at #7. I have both these guys off the board.Philip Rivers is overdue a WR upgrade and I've had Clemson's Mike Williams mocked to the Chargers for some time. However, there seems to be a fair amount of WR depth this year and the Chargers have not taken a receiver in the 1st round since 2007. So influenced by the depth of draft class and pressing needs at other positions too, I've the Chargers bolstering the D-line with Jonathan Allen who posted 28 sacks during his college career and can probably offer 3-down versatility across the D-line.
8. Carolina Panthers - RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State)
I think the Panthers would benefit enormously from further depth at RB and at #8 should have at least one of the top two prospects here, possibly even a free choice of the two. I've Fournette off the board, leaving Dalvin Cook as the top-rated remaining back. There was a little knock on Cook following the combine agility drills but I think they've been overstated. The last running back from Florida State to be selected in the first round was Warrick Dunn, he subsequently won the offensive rookie of the year award back in 1997. Cook has the potential to follow in these footsteps.As regards other positional needs, the Panthers could maybe look to add O-line depth or go for a playmaker in the secondary. I think O-line is a tough one to call, it's a strong positional need for Carolina, but success of first round O-line picks in recent years has been variable - it's arguably the highest positional lottery of the draft and is without the stand-out first round candidate in this rookie class. There is some sense in further secondary help in a division with Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Jameis Winston, but with the top two safeties and corner off the board, I'll stick with a running game weapon to complement Cam Newton.
9. Cincinnati Bengals - WR Mike Williams (Clemson)
The Bengals loss of receivers Jones and Sanu in 2016 free agency was felt the entire season last year. They've took a similar double hit on their O-line during this years free agency with the departures of Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler. Unless they make some late free agency moves they must be confident that in-house replacements or draftees can protect Andy Dalton and provide WR depth.The draft class O-line options in the first round would seem limited to Ryan Ramczyk, Garret Bolles or possibly Cam Robinson. I think the Bengals will also entertain the possibility of someone on the D-line in the mould of Taco Charlton or Derek Barnett.
Ultimately, I think the Bengals go for best value at #9 and providing a top class WR2 opposite of A.J Green would bolster the passing attack considerably.
10. Buffalo Bills - QB Deshaun Watson (Clemson)
The National Championship winning MVP QB Deshaun Watson has his doubters, and I'd probably agree that with his supporting cast at Clemson he should have been more dominant, but he's still been undoubtedly one of the best college QB's the last 2 years.
Watson's leadership skills and ability to play at his best with the game on the line make him an intriguing option to compete in Buffalo. With Taylor retained, Watson can be transitioned into the starting role at his own pace.
11. New Orleans Saints - LB Reuben Foster (Alabama)
The Saints still need defensive help and lack playmakers on that side of the ball. I initially had Reuben Foster mocked to the Saints here at #11 until he was sent home from the combine following an off-field altercation.I'm not sure whether events at the combine affect Foster's draft
stock or not. I think it maybe has the Saints considering their alternatives and Haason Reddick would be a similar playmaking weapon to integrate into the defense at OLB or off the edge, or maybe one of the pure defensive ends in the draft class.
However, Foster has All Pro potential and it's hard for a struggling Saints defense to ignore this promise at a position of need in New Orleans.
12. Cleveland Browns - TE O.J. Howard (Alabama)
Should all the QB's remain on the board and these rumours of trade ups realistic, it would seem to be the reasonable and most likely selection. However, against conventional wisdom and experience of QB's typically being over-drafted I'm predicting a fall of the passers this year and have the Browns taking another "safe pick" - if that's ever possible.
Despite a strong TE class, O.J Howard is the best prospect in terms of versatility as both a blocker and a receiver, has great hands and can stretch the field. It might not be the most pressing positional need but is a vital safety valve for whomever is QB.
If I'm the Browns I'm thinking maybe Patrick Mahomes or Deshone Kizer early in the 2nd round as my passer to compete with Cody Kessler next year.
13. Arizona Cardinals - DE Taco Charlton (Michigan)
The Cardinals are a tough team to predict. With many of the QB class of 2017 still on the board here I could see them line up an eventual replacement for Carson Palmer. Similarly, it's Larry Fitgerald's swansong and they could take advantage of giving a 1st round rookie WR a years tutelage by Fitzgerald. Equally the Cards may wish to bolster the secondary or pass-rush, I'm really not sure.
However, with Palmer and Fitzgerald still in Arizona the franchise remains in a win now mode and whilst not a like-for-like replacement, I'm going with the 6'6 edge rusher Taco Charlton to be drafted to attempt to fill the major hole from the departure of Calais Campbell in free agency. My only concern here is that Charlton maybe carries some of the on-field inconsistencies similar to last years 1st rounder Robert Nkemdiche, however the skill set and potential of Charlton cannot be ignored.
14. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Marlon Humphrey (Alabama)
The likely school of thought here is for the Eagles to take a cornerback early in the draft, possibly moreso with the release of Leodis McKelvin and the free agent signings of WR's Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith providing Carson Wentz with further receiving options at what was their other most pressing positional need.
I think the shake-up from the earlier picks in this round may help determine the selection here but Mike Williams, Corey Davis and John Ross could all be considerations at receiver with Ryan Ramczyk or Garret Bolles options on the O-line. Of the defensive options Marlon Humphrey or Gareon Conley at the corner position or someone like Derek Barnett could be in the mix to upgrade the D-line. The one left-field selection I'd love to see is Christian McCaffrey whose father is ex-Giant WR Ed. It would make a nice editorial piece but also give the Eagles a real game breaking talent to utilise in the backfield and split out wide.
However, against my own personal preference for McCaffrey I'll stick with the popular positional need pick at cornerback and given the recent rumours surrounding Conley will go with the safer option of Alabama's Marlon Humphrey.
15. Indianapolis Colts - OL Ryan Ramczyk (Wisconsin)
This is a big draft for new GM Chris Ballard who has to unpick a roster weakened over recent Ryan Grigson led drafts. The team needs are along both lines and whilst D-line depth is strong in this rookie class I think the Colts will be led by having to keep their franchise guy upright and for me the investment in O-line is critical for Andrew Luck.The Colts are likely to have their pick of O-linemen in the middle of the 1st round, so it would come to a preference choice between Ryan Ramcyk, Cam Robinson or Garret Bolles.
I think Ramczyk is probably the pick of the three and has the athleticism to cope at left tackle in the NFL. His learning curve won't be as steep as some rookie tackles as he's played in a pro-style system at Wisconsin. The last Badger tackle to be selected in the first round was potential future Hall-of-Famer Joe Thomas. Not a bad guy to follow on from.
16 - Baltimore Ravens - DE/OLB Haason Reddick (Temple)
If it were me, I'd hand in the Haason Reddick card pretty damn quickly and look forward to finding some WR depth later in the draft.
Reddick posted some impressive numbers as an edge rusher at Temple (10 sacks in 2016) but allayed concerns over his size and turned even more heads when he was asked to play OLB at the Senior Bowl and looked at home in coverage and when asked to rush the passer.
17 - Washington Redskins - WR John Ross (Washington)
Losing Desean Jackson to free agency may coincidentally be addressed by signing his younger (see also cheaper) clone in John Ross. Ross worked out with Desean pre-draft and provides a similar skill set to D-Jax.Ross' stock rose notably at the combine when he ran the fastest ever 40, surpassing Chris Johnson's record that had stood since 2008 and dispelling any remaining concerns over his top-end speed following a torn ACL which cost him the whole of his 2015 season.
Ross had already rebounded from the injury with over 1,100 yards receiving in his junior season, complemented with 17 receiving TD's. Declaring early for the draft, he should provide a deep threat weapon here.
18 - Tennessee Titans - WR Corey Davis (Western Michigan)
Having mocked Marshon Lattimore at corner as their first priority at #5 the Titans must surely address WR at #18.
The Titans will be delighted if one of the top 3 receivers in this class still remain on the board at #18 and as chance would have it, I still have Corey Davis available, who many experts rank the #1 WR in the draft class. Davis posted 1,500 receiving yards and 19 TD's in his last season in college and at 6'3 provides a good size target for Marcus Mariota to work with.
I think the WR pick is a no-brainer if it falls into place like this.
19 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DE Derek Barnett (Tennessee)
The NFC South is a pass oriented division and edge rushers are at a premium. I'm not sure Derek Barnett really falls this low, but think it a possibility. He might not be the quick twitch edge rusher scouts will rave about but was massively effective in college amassing 33 sacks and his play should effectively translate to the pros.
20 - Denver Broncos - DL Malik McDowell (Michigan St)
The Broncos need some O-line help and I think Garret Bolles or Cam Robinson may be considered or even Forrest Lamp who played tackle in college but may be better suited to the interior in the pros. The Broncos may be tempted by Christian McCaffrey and have the connection to his father Ed. However, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see reinforcements on the D-line via Malik McDowell or an edge guy such as Tak McKinley or Charles Harris. McDowell didn't have a great final year in college and there are questions on effort but there is All Pro potential to unlock under the correct organisation
21 - Detroit Lions - DE/OLB Charles Harris (Missouri)
The Lions are probably looking defense here though could be swayed if one of the top WR's remain. With Mike Williams, John Ross and Corey Davis all off the board I'm thinking that pass-rush is the most likely area to address.The options here would appear to be between Takkarist McKinley, Tim Williams or Charles Harris. I think Harris is the most likely candidate.
22 - Miami Dolphins - LB Zach Cunningham (Vanderbilt)
This might be a slight reach at #24 but Cunningham was a play-making machine in college and freed up in the Miami defense could replicate his achievements from Vanderbilt down in Florida.
23 - NY Giants - RB Christian McCaffrey (Stanford)
It's probably too convenient that I have the Giants taking Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and allowing him to follow in his father Ed's footsteps some 26 years after he was drafted by the Giants (Ed McCaffrey was selected in 3rd round #83 in 1991).
McCaffrey's a multi-dimensional runner with the skills of a receiver in the passing game, notably being asked to run routes with the wide receivers at the combine.
He posted eye-popping numbers in 2015 leading Stanford in both rushing and receiving (the only FBS player to do so) and his so-called down year still amassed 1,639 yards in 2016. He might not be a 20 carries per game back, but he's certainly a 20 touches per game back.
24 - Oakland Raiders - DL Takkarist McKinley (UCLA)
Probably the rawest prospect to go in the 1st round this year, McKinley has the potential to dominate if he can be taught pass-rush technique. He's a relentless competitor who got better each year at UCLA and saw his sack totals increase year-on-year up to his final year where he posted double digit sacks.
25 - Houston Texans - QB Mitchell Trubisky (North Carolina)
I'm resisting the option of the Texans pairing up T.J Watt to team with his more famous brother.Surely the Texans don't see Tom Savage as their QB of the future? Houston aren't that far away from a Superbowl team but the QB position has held them back during the entire Bill O'Brien era.
Trubisky comes with a number of question marks having spent 98% of his time in college operating a spread offense from shotgun. He'll have a steep learning curve reading defenses from under Center, learning to throw within a tighter window etc but has good mobility and a strong arm that can make all the throws. He's not the finished article by any means but has been given some favourable comparisons to Carson Wentz from last years draft class. I can't see the Texans letting him get past #25 if indeed he gets this far.
26 - Seattle Seahawks - OT Garret Bolles (Utah)
There's some talk of Obi Melifonwu here - a 6'4 224lbs imposing safety who impressed at the combine. He doesn't look as good on gameday though so may be a bit of a project to take this early. Instead I believe the Seahawks will look to improve their O-line to give Russell Wilson better protection. The most likely selection would be the athletic Garret Bolles or possibly Cam Robinson. Either would provide much needed competition on the O-line.
27 - KC Chiefs - LB/S Jabrill Peppers (Michigan)
Peppers is a bit of a wildcard in this class, labelled a swiss-army knife in his college career who contributed on offense, special teams and defense during his time at Michigan. He models himself as a Charles Woodson style hybrid safety/linebacker, even choosing Michigan for that very reason so would probably love to go to Oakland or Green Bay but let's make no bones, he's nowhere near Woodson's level....yet.
Some experts feel his game has suffered due to his versatility and believe he'll prosper given a fixed position in the NFL. In KC, he'd be learning off one of the best in Eric Berry.
28 - Dallas Cowboys - TE David Njoku (Miami)
Njoku is the next in a long line of Miami tight ends to hit the pro's (Greg Olson, Jimmy Graham, Jeremy Shockey et al). He would be an intriguing pick for Dallas bringing plus athleticism and speed for the position and will cause several mismatch issues for defenses. He's not the finished article and his blocking needs lots of work, but Dallas would be an ideal fit for Njoku as he learns his trade from Jason Witten.
29 - Green Bay Packers - LB T.J Watt (Wisconsin)
I'd love to see McCaffrey here if not in Philly, but think him long gone by #29. I'm expecting the Packers to address the defense in the 1st round but wonder whether Ty Montgomery can really carry the load for a full season in Green Bay. It's possible that Lambeau could be a safe haven for Joe Mixon or Alvin Kamara but I think the 1st round may be too high for either of these backs and their off-field baggage.
I think the Packers look to defensive line or secondary and possibly entertain T.J Watt as their pick. The brother of J.J may not be quite the same impact player and does come with some injury history, but when he was finally injury free last year he posted an impressive 63 tackles and 11.5 sacks. Teaming Watt up with Clay Matthews could be an intriguing prospect.
30 - Pittsburgh Steelers - S Budda Baker (Washington)
I think the Steelers are looking to address the D-line and secondary as main priorities in the first round and will surely add a WR at some point with on-going off-field issues surrounding Martavis Bryant.
I think Budda Baker could be an intriguing selection here - an undersized Safety with excellent ball skills and a linebacker mentality - does that remind anyone of Steeler legend Troy Polamalu? Just saying....
31 - Atlanta Falcons - OG Forrest Lamp (Western Kentucky)
I don't think Atlanta have many pressing needs on offense but the one glaring hole is at right guard following the retirement of Chris Chester. Aside from this position I don't think they'll consider much on offense with the exception of TE possibly in the later rounds. I fully expect the majority of other picks to be spent across the defensive line, linebacker and free safety.For the first round I think it's a choice of edge rusher or guard. I suspect the ideal scenario is a pass-rusher with options at Guard in Rd2 or Rd3, but if Lamp is on the board at #31 it should be a no-brainer. Lamp played tackle for Western Kentucky but is an ideal fit to move inside in the NFL. He's athletic and should fit the zone block concepts nicely in Atlanta.
And yes, I'm not afraid to admit that I did spend his 40 run at the combine shouting 'Run Forrest Run'
32 - New Orleans Saints - CB Teez Tabor (Florida)
The Saints second pick of the round courtesy of the Brandin Cooks trade, I suspect it's another pick on the defensive side of the ball. There are plenty of corners carrying a low round 1 / high round 2 grade and I'm not sure where they go. On paper Sidney Jones is probably the best corner but tore his achilles on his pro day. Gareon Conley carried a 1st round grade but an accusation of rape in the lead-up to the draft probably hits his stock. I think this leaves the Saints gambling or dropping down a level to the likes of Teez Tabor, Adoree Jackson, Tre'davious White, Quincy Jones and others.
