Ahead of the 2017 NFL Draft I thought we'd take a look at the success of the last few draft classes as a bit of fun. It's hard to address how good a draft class is until years afterwards, but the Falcons seem to have hit on a large percentage of their selections in recent years. Here's a quick review : .
The 2015 Draft Class by Pick
8. Clemson DE/LB Vic Beasley
42. LSU CB Jalen Collins
73. Indiana RB Tevin Coleman
107. East Carolina WR Justin Hardy
137. Clemson DT Grady Jarrett
225. Eastern Washington OT Jake Rodgers
249. San Jose State DB Akeem King
Initial Draft Analysis - from May-2015
Good Move - Many to mention but sitting tight in Round 1 to get a pass rusher saved several picks required to move up; Vic Beasley was not expected to be available at #8 but the Redskins surprise selection of Brandon Scherff at #5 shuffled the pack suitably for Beasley to fall to the Falcons. Beasley will need to improve against the run and is likely a situational pass rusher in yr 1. However, he was arguably the best pass-rusher in college with 12 sacks and 21 TFL's in 2014 for Clemson. The pick couldn't have fell any kinder to both the Falcons who desperately need to engineer a pass-rush, or Beasley a lifelong Falcons fan who even attended the draft in Black and Red.
Bargain Pick - Grady Jarrett in the 5th round;
Possibly one of the bargains of the entire draft. Graded as a probable 2nd round pick the Falcons traded up to the top of the 5th to snatch him. He'll contribute immediately and was terrific value. Great lineage for the Falcons too, his father is Falcons Ring of Honour Linebacker Jessie Tuggle.
The Falcons also fell lucky grabbing Tevin Coleman in the 3rd where many experts had him as the 3rd best back in the draft class.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Jalen Collins could be a classic boom or bust pick;
His selection in the 2nd round involves both an on-field risk (limited experience with only 10 starts in college) and off-field (3 failed drug tests in college). If Collins pans out it's seriously good value for a cornerback with 1st round talent and the size Coach Quinn covets.
Tell Me Why Again? - Not much to question with this draft class. It's surprising the Falcons would avoid Randy Gregory but feel confident with Jalen Collins, but to come out of the draft with 5 likely significant contributors as rookies is a coup for the organisation.
Progress to date of the 2015 class
Two years on and all but one of this draft class remain Falcons, with 5 of the draftees making significant contributions in year two. This draft class appears on course to be regarded as a very successful pool of players. Let's take a look at their individual progress to date :
Vic Beasley - a relatively quiet rookie season saw Beasley switch from a pure DE into OLB in Dan Quinn's system and he immediately prospered in his second year. Using his explosive speed and helped by the tutelage of Dwight Freeney, Beasley's sack totals exploded to 15.5 regular season sacks and he continued to show a penchant for converting a high percentage of sacks into forced fumbles. Beasley made his first Pro Bowl selection Verdict : HIT
Jalen Collins - despite an inauspicious start to his Falcons career, Collins shown signs down the stretch in year two that he was beginning to repay the faith of the coaching staff. After a tough rookie season, the corner missed the start of 2016 due to a PED violation. However, the unfortunate season ending injury of Desmond Trufant thrust Collins back into the spotlight and he was part of a much improved defense in the second half of the season, capped with a key forced fumble and endzone recovery in the NFC Championship game. If Collins can keep clean off-field and continue the development on-field, this pick could pay-off Verdict : With patience the pick is edging towards hit status
Tevin Coleman - injury curtailed Coleman's rookie season but not before he was able to demonstrate his blazing speed although there were worrying signs of ball security issues. As with a lot of this draft class, Coleman took a leap in year two and corrected areas of weakness. Widely regarded as part of one of the league's best 1-2 combinations in the backfield, Coleman contributed 941 all-purpose yards whilst amassing 11 TD's in his sophomore season. Verdict : HIT
Justin Hardy - the success of free agent signing Taylor Gabriel perhaps curtailed the opportunities and development of Hardy who didn't really kick on from his rookie year. He shows good hands and appears to be a reliable option down the depth chart in Atlanta Verdict : decent contributor for 4th rd pick, but stuck in a numbers game on the depth chart
Grady Jarrett - showed flashes as a rookie and has continued to win the trust of the coaches. A decent enough regular season culminated in a breakout performance in the Superbowl, including 3 sacks of Tom Brady and continual interior pressure. He could have been a Superbowl MVP candidate if the Falcons had seen out their lead. It will be interesting to see if that performance was a one-off or a sign of things to come in Yr 3 Verdict : Great value for Rd 5 and year 3 could dictate whether this was a great "value" pick or a great pick in it's own right.
Jake Rodgers - didn't make it through pre-season in Atlanta and bounced onto the Giants practice squad and is currently signed to the Panthers. Verdict : didn't hit out with this one but hey it's a 7th round pick
Akeem King - signed to the practice squad as a rookie, King eventually made the gameday roster in 5 match-ups as a rookie. His second year was cut short in pre-season with a move to IR due to foot injury and now he faces a numbers game in training camp next year. Verdict : TBC
The 2016 Draft Class by Pick
1 (17). Florida SS Keanu Neal
2 (52). LSU LB Deion Jones
3 (81). Stanford TE Austin Hooper
4 (115). Minnesota LB De'Vondre Campbell
6 (195). San Jose State OG Wes Schweitzer
7 (238). UCLA WR Devin Fuller
Initial Draft Analysis - from May-2016
Good Move - The Falcons main objective entering the draft was to add speed, aggressiveness and versatility on defense. They achieved this with the picks of Neal, Jones and Campbell. Coach Quinn is being given players that fit his template for success. Whether the template is the winning formula or not remains to be seen, but the good move was in the Falcons focusing on this specific strategy and executing it during the draft.
Bargain Pick - Austin Hooper was generally regarded as the second best TE in the class with ability to help as an in-line blocker as well as a pass catching weapon. There are some favourable comparisons of Hooper with fellow Stanford TE Zach Ertz. He'll likely spend a year behind Jacob Tamme, but should still feature lots as a rookie in the two TE sets that Kyle Shanahan likes to employ frequently. He should be the starting TE in 2017.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Both Keanu Neal and Deion Jones were taken ahead of their projected draft spots. The consensus was that "better value" was available at the spots the Falcons picked, but credit is due to the Falcons sticking to positions of need and guys identified as scheme fits. History will prove whether the Front Office was brave or foolhardy when the policy pays off or not.
Tell Me Why Again - With only 19 sacks in 2015 the organisation seemingly failed to address the pass rush with this draft class. However, Vic Beasley should kick on from his rookie season and Atlanta did acquire Derrick Shelby from Miami in free agency. It might be churlish to pick apart the back end of draft classes, but Atlanta's final two picks felt like particular reaches, especially with seemingly better prospects still available at these positions.
Progress to date of the 2016 class
It's very early to make a judgement on players after only their rookie season but this class must take credit for making significant contributions to a Superbowl bound team. If they kick-on to the extent the 2015 class did, well.... it could be a Superbowl return. Let's take a look at their individual progress to date :
Keanu Neal - After missing the first few games of the regular season, Neal slotted straight in at strong safety and quickly gathered a league wide reputation for some big-hitting across the middle of the field. Voted to the PWFA All-rookie team. Verdict : HIT
Austin Hooper - thrust into further playing time as Jacob Tamme went onto IR early in the season, Hooper was a dependable target. He may not have blazing mis-match speed and his blocking needs work but he shown enough for the team to give him the opportunity to make the starters role his own in 2017
De'Vondre Campbell - another significant contribution from a rookie, Campbell saw significant playing time and though sometimes exposed in coverage did provide speed and physicality to the linebacking corps
Wes Schweitzer - Inactive for all 16 games as a rookie, Schweitzer remained on the active roster and despite no gameday contribution the organisation seem to like his smarts. With no news on Chris Chester's return or any free agent signing, he may need to step up in 2017.
Devin Fuller - A pre-season shoulder injury moved Fuller to IR and derailed his rookie season. Earmarked for WR depth and potential return duties, the signing of Andre Roberts means Fuller will need to show something early in training camp in 2017
