Friday, 6 May 2016

Initial Draft Grades 2016 - NFC North








1 (9). Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd
2 (56). Kansas State G/C Cody Whitehair
3 (72). Florida DE/DT Jonathan Bullard
4 (113). West Virginia ILB Nick Kwiatkoski
4 (124). Miami (FL) S Deon Bush
4 (127). Northern Iowa CB Deiondre' Hall
5 (150). Indiana RB Jordan Howard
6 (185). William & Mary S DeAndre Houston-Carson
7 (230). Western Michigan WR Daniel Braverman

Good Move - Lots to mention. The Bears needed OL help and Whitehair was the top rated Guard and getting him at #56 was an unexpected coup. They also needed DL help and Jonathan Bullard is a versatile, explosive guy and great value at #72. Jordan Howard also dropped to #150 and looks a bruiser of a back, ideal for the cold days at Soldier Field. He could see significant playing time.
Bargain Pick - All the late round picks made sense but on a personal level I loved the move for Daniel Braverman in Rd7. I'm hoping he can make the roster as he is sharp with exceptionally quick feet. I heard someone say he was a prototype Patriots slot guy and that analogy hopefully showcases how effective he could be if used correctly. With 2015 Rd1 pick Kevin White returning from injury the Bears WR corps gets two new weapons to incorporate into it's offense.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Leonard Floyd is a classic low floor / high ceiling pick. He suffers from not having an obvious natural position but has a tool set which should see him become a highly effective impact player. I can't wait to see how Vic Fangio plans to utilise him in Chicago. I think it's a good fit for player and team alike but only time will tell if he can translate the measurables into performance.
Tell Me Why Again - Bears fans will be asking 'Why can't the draft be in Chicago every year'. Another solid draft class to follow-on from 2015 and the only issue I can really pick out of the class is the selection of Kwiatkowski. I think he's a great Bears type LB, I just wonder how many opportunities he will see after the free agency signings of Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan.








1 (16). Ohio State OT Taylor Decker
 2 (46). Alabama DT A'Shawn Robinson
 3 (95). Michigan C Graham Glasgow
 4 (111). Southern Utah SS Miles Killebrew
 5 (151). Washington State OG Joe Dahl
 5 (169). Georgia Southern LB Antwione Williams
 6 (191). Michigan QB Jake Rudock
 6 (202). Penn State DL Anthony Zettel
 6 (210). Baylor LS Jimmy Landes
 7 (236). Washington RB Dwayne Washington

Good Move - The Lions wanted to improve in the trenches on both sides of the ball and four of their first five picks addressed these aims. Decker, Robinson and Glasgow could probably start on day one.
Bargain Pick - Antwione Williams will need to develop his cover skills in the pro's but has perfect size and exceptional arm length and with some time under his belt adjusting to the NFL, he could really contribute for Detroit.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Miles Killebrew has coverage limitations which he'll need to improve upon or he may get found out in the passing game but he can hit like a train and if used in the fashionable new hybrid LB/S role he could potentially flourish.
Tell Me Why Again - I liked the first 6 picks which all fitted a certain philosophy to get tougher. I was surprised that WR and CB weren't addressed at all, I did expect a WR to be taken relatively early on, but when that didn't materialise I was a bit dumbfounded that a pick wasn't spent late on when their was still value to be had. I know that you generally get less contributions from later round picks, but I didn't like much about the picks past Antwione Williams at all.








1 (27). UCLA DT Kenny Clark
2 (48). Indiana OT Jason Spriggs
3 (88). Utah State OLB Kyler Fackrell
4 (131). Nebraska ILB Blake Martinez
4 (137). Northwestern DE Dean Lowry
5 (163). California WR Trevor Davis
6 (200). Stanford OT Kyle Murphy

Good Move - Despite the calls for a middle linebacker to move Clay Matthews back outside, the Packers prioritised a replacement for B.J Raji to plug the interior. Clark should help the defense immediately.
Bargain Pick - Fackrell could be a potential steal in the 3rd round. An athletic LB with both pass-rush skills and the ability to drop into coverage, he has the capability to become a 3-down LB for the Packers.
Risk / Reward Gamble - If the plan really is to move Matthews back outside, Martinez will need to contribute immediately. The Packers passed on Reggie Ragland and hope that Martinez can bring the same sort of intensity to the middle of the Packers defense. The knock on Martinez is his speed and agility. He won't be found wanting in the power department.
Tell Me Why Again - I really expected a high pick on a middle linebacker to allow Clay Matthews to move back outside, but if Martinez can step up then kudos to the Packers.









1 (23). Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell
2 (54). Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander
4 (121). Western Michigan T/G Willie Beavers
5 (160). Missouri ILB Kentrell Brothers
6 (180). Germany WR Moritz Boehringer
6 (188). Texas-San Antonio TE David Morgan
6 (227). Vanderbilt DE Stephen Weatherly
7 (244). Clemson S Jayron Kearse

Good Move - Teddy Bridgewater needed a big bodied WR and Rick Spielman delivered. Treadwell wasn't the first receiver off the board but many had him tagged as the best WR available. A great needs and value pick at #23
Bargain Pick - Stephen Weatherly has some power and speed and was well worth the late round pick in a league where those traits are priceless.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Both Beavers and Boehringer are projects with intriguing tool sets but needing a huge amount of developmental work. Beavers needs to develop more playing strength whereas Boehringer has no college football experience whatsoever, becoming the first ever draftee via the German Football League. The athletic traits are off the charts but the learning curve will be immense. Time will tell if the leaps of faith pay off.
Tell Me Why Again - It's not that I don't rate Mackensie Alexander who exudes an air of confidence when he's on the field. It's not that he had no college interceptions either. My only quibble is that it wasn't a need area for the Vikes and for a playoff type team I thought they may just have looked for an impact guy at a position of more immediate need at #54. This is being picky as it's a pretty good draft class and you've got to factor into the draft grade the trade of their 2016 Rd3 pick in exchange for a Rd3 and Rd4 pick in 2017

Tuesday, 3 May 2016

Initial Draft Grades 2016 - NFC East








1 (4). Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott
2 (34). Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith
3 (67). Nebraska DT Maliek Collins
4 (101). Oklahoma DE Charles Tapper
4 (135). Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott
6 (189). Purdue CB Anthony Brown
6 (212). Central Michigan S Kavon Frazier
6 (216). Eastern Michigan RB Darius Jackson
6 (217). Baylor TE Rico Gathers

Good Move - Picking at #4 overall the Cowboys wanted an impact player and landed one. Elliott is by far the best RB in the draft class. The Cowboys were criticised for picking a RB so early but it's hard to fault a team for drafting to their board and is Darren McFadden likely to remain injury free for two consecutive seasons? Behind the Dallas O-line, Elliott should be an early front runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Bargain Pick - There might be some unanswered questions over Kavon Frazier's coverage skills but he was regarded as a tempo setter in college and has ideal size, knows how to hit hard and was a leader at Central Michigan. His route to making the roster may initially be via special teams but the Cowboys depth chart could offer opportunities
Risk / Reward Gamble - The ultimate second round throw of the dice. I was really pleased for Jaylon Smith on a personal level. He's undoubtedly a top 10 talent if healthy but projects to miss 2016 as a minimum. The risk of nerve damage could potentially be career threatening, so to select him #34 overall was a massive gamble. I'd have thought teams may entertain a selection from Rd4 onwards. That said, if Smith comes back 100% then kudos to Jerry Jones for making sure he's a Cowboy.
Tell Me Why Again - The Cowboys draft strategy rarely feels consistent. With Tony Romo aging, they took a win-now move grabbing Ezekiel Elliott at #4 but then took the absolute opposite option taking Jaylon Smith in Rd2 knowing he is unlikely to play in 2016. Both players were picked higher than anyone expected. I just wonder if they'll regret passing on Jalen Ramsey with such a problematic secondary in Dallas? They've also failed to address their pass rush problems and are going to need to put up points and eat up the clock to be competitive.








1 (10). Ohio State CB Eli Apple
2 (40). Oklahoma WR Sterling Shepard
3 (71). Boise State S Darian Thompson
4 (109). Clemson LB B.J. Goodson
5 (149). UCLA RB Paul Perkins
6 (184). South Carolina TE Jerell Adams

Good Move - The Giants had an overall solid draft, addressing team needs with players who should get opportunities for playing time. The safest move was the addition of Sterling Shepard who probably becomes the Giants WR3 immediately and is ideally suited to operating in the slot.
Bargain Pick - B.J Goodson isn't the quickest LB but he's a tough inside thumper. The Giants always seem to be papering over cracks in their linebacking corps so he should get an opportunity to make an impact.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Darian Thompson posted some great ball-hawking numbers for Boise State but question marks over his speed and tackling ability will need to be dispelled for this pick to be a success.
Tell Me Why Again - If the rumour really is true that the Bears traded up above the Giants following a back-room leak in New York that they were about to pick Leonard Floyd, then questions need to be asked in the Giants war room. Was the selection of Apple a panic selection with Floyd no longer available? Apple to the Big Apple is a great headline for the press and he has bags of potential, but he's not yet the finished article. The pick feels a bit of a reach within the top 10, especially with Vernon Hargreaves still on the board. I was also surprised the Giants did not address their O-line at all. I'm sure Eli Manning felt the same.




 




1 (2). North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz
3 (79). Oregon State G/C Isaac Seumalo
5 (153). West Virginia RB Wendell Smallwood
5 (164). TCU T/G Halapoulivaati Vaitai
6 (196). Auburn CB Blake Countess
7 (233). LSU DB Jalen Mills
7 (240). Florida DE Alex McCalister
7 (251). Oregon LB Joe Walker

Good Move - It may have cost a lot and drafting a QB is always something of a lottery, but the Eagles were at least brave enough to aim beyond the average starter level incumbents on their roster. Wentz has all the tools and ran a pro-offense at North Dakota State. The only knock on him is the level of competition he's faced, but that's not something he should be blamed for. The Eagles were also smart enough to assign two picks for their O-line but were a little hampered in how early they could address this by the earlier trade-up to secure Wentz. 
Bargain Pick - Jalen Mills was a 4-yr starter at LSU. He comes with a few off-field red flags but seems terrific value in Rd7. His skill set is perhaps best suited to operate as slot Corner rather than Safety, it will be interesting to see where the Eagles plan to utilise him best.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Trading up from #13 to #8 to #2 cost the organisation a lot of draft picks. The success of this draft class will almost exclusively depend on Carson Wentz development from Division 1-AA to the NFL. He has the tool set and the intangibles, let's hope he can handle the step up to the pro's and the ever impatient Eagles fanbase.
Tell Me Why Again - Why the large amounts of guaranteed cash for Bradford and Daniel if the plan all along was to aggressively chase Wentz? The Bradford situation will likely create a lot of media attention in Philly which could affect the rookie Wentz.








 1 (22). TCU WR Josh Doctson
 2 (53). USC S/LB Su'a Cravens
 3 (84). Virginia Tech CB Kendall Fuller
 5 (152). Temple DE Matt Ioannidis
 6 (187). Indiana QB Nate Sudfeld
 7 (232). Boston College LB Steven Daniels
 7 (242). Georgia RB Keith Marshall

Good Move - It's important to note that the Skins came out of this draft with a further three picks for 2017, but the best move of all was the drafting of Josh Doctson who will compete immediately and provide another deep threat target for Kirk Cousins. The learning curve for a rookie WR can be steep but he should contribute immediately. It's a good future proving move too, with both Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon entering contract years. Su'a Cravens adds speed to the defense and could be used in a hybrid LB/S role.
Bargain Pick - Keith Marshall didn't see a great deal of playing time at Georgia due to a fair amount of injuries, including a serious ACL injury in 2013 but is an ideal fit for a zone scheme. He doesn't have many miles on his clock and running the fastest 40 of all running backs at the combine should hopefully help dispel lingering doubts that the ACL injury slowed him at all. He could really surprise if he gets the right opportunity.
Risk / Reward Gamble - There's some injury history surrounding Kendall Fuller but there's enough upside to get value from this pick in Rd3 if the injuries are in the past. Kendall becomes the 4th Fuller brother to make it into the NFL so the pedigree is certainly there.
Tell Me Why Again - Despite a solid overall draft class, I was surprised that the interior of the O-line wasn't addressed at any point.


Monday, 2 May 2016

Initial Draft Grades 2016 - NFC South









1 (17). Florida SS Keanu Neal
2 (52). LSU LB Deion Jones
3 (81). Stanford TE Austin Hooper
4 (115). Minnesota LB De'Vondre Campbell
6 (195). San Jose State OG Wes Schweitzer
7 (238). UCLA WR Devin Fuller

Good Move - The Falcons main objective entering the draft was to add speed, aggressiveness and versatility on defense. They achieved this with the picks of Neal, Jones and Campbell. Coach Quinn is being given players that fit his template for success. Whether the template is the winning formula or not remains to be seen, but the good move was in the Falcons focusing on this specific strategy and executing it during the draft.
Bargain Pick - Austin Hooper was generally regarded as the second best TE in the class with ability to help as an in-line blocker as well as a pass catching weapon. There are some favourable comparisons of Hooper with fellow Stanford TE Zach Ertz. He'll likely spend a year behind Jacob Tamme, but should still feature lots as a rookie in the two TE sets that Kyle Shanahan likes to employ frequently. He should be the starting TE in 2017.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Both Keanu Neal and Deion Jones were taken ahead of their projected draft spots.  The consensus was that "better value" was available at the spots the Falcons picked, but credit is due to the Falcons sticking to positions of need and guys identified as scheme fits. History will prove whether the Front Office was brave or foolhardy when the policy pays off or not.
Tell Me Why Again - With only 19 sacks in 2015 the organisation seemingly failed to address the pass rush with this draft class. However, Vic Beasley should kick on from his rookie season and Atlanta did acquire Derrick Shelby from Miami in free agency. It might be churlish to pick apart the back end of draft classes, but Atlanta's final two picks felt like particular reaches, especially with seemingly better prospects still available at these positions.









1 (30). Louisiana Tech DT Vernon Butler
2 (62). Samford CB James Bradberry
3 (77). West Virginia CB Daryl Worley
5 (141). Oklahoma CB Zack Sanchez
7 (252). Montana State TE Beau Sandland

Good Move - Vernon Butler adds further depth to an already formidable Panthers D-line. As Kawann Short enters his contract year this displays exemplary forward planning by GM Dave Gettleman to ensure continuity in the Panthers approach on the field.
Bargain Pick - Beau Sandland is raw but not without ball skills. He's got a chance to stick in Carolina and is the long wingspan type of receiver that Cam Newton enjoys. He'll be a bit of a project but well worth the 7th round investment.
Risk / Reward Gamble - The analogy of throwing three darts and hoping one sticks springs to mind with the Panthers draft strategy of picking 3 corners. However, the secondary was the most pressing need and the pre-draft departure of Josh Norman just added to the priority. They will need a contribution somewhere from this class of corners early in their careers.
Tell Me Why Again - The Panthers surprisingly failed to address the offensive line in the draft, due in large part to only retaining 5 picks. I have to question them relinquishing the two draft picks (4th and 5th round) to move up 16 places to acquire Worley, which ultimately left them unable to address other needs.








1 (12). Louisville DT Sheldon Rankins
2 (47). Ohio State WR Michael Thomas
2 (61). Ohio State S Vonn Bell
4 (120). Manitoba DT David Onyemata
7 (237). California RB Daniel Lasco

Good Move - I'd expect all of the first three picks to be immediate starters. Rankins is NFL ready and fills an immediate need for New Orleans. Vonn Bell was arguably the best cover safety in the draft and upgrades the secondary.
Bargain Pick - Daniel Lasco was an intriguing pick. He has some injury history and doesn't have the most robust of frames for the position, but had an excellent combine and is explosive in the open field. It will be really interesting to see how Sean Payton plans to utilise him.
Risk / Reward Gamble  - The Saints took a flyer on a small school DT whilst also expending a further draft pick to move up to acquire David Onyemata. He'll have to overcome a huge step up in class from Manitoba to the NFL but the Saints have a history of small school success stories so we'll give them the benefit for now.
Tell Me Why Again - The Saints twice spent picks aggressively moving up the draft to secure players. I've no issues with doing this aside from the fact that the Saints have lots of holes to fill and ended up with only 5 draft picks. They still have holes at Guard, Corner and DE which those picks could surely have helped address;








1 (11). Florida CB Vernon Hargreaves
2 (39). Eastern Kentucky DE Noah Spence
2 (59). Florida State K Roberto Aguayo
4 (108). North Carolina Central CB Ryan Smith
5 (148). UCLA T/G Caleb Benenoch
6 (183). Oklahoma LB Devante Bond
6 (197). Northwestern FB Dan Vitale

Good Move - The Bucs not only landed their number one target in the draft, they somehow managed to acquire a 4th round pick from Chicago in the process. Hargreaves should start early and immediately addressed the teams biggest need. This was a complete win-win on day one.
Bargain Pick - I really liked the pick of Caleb Benenoch. It's a likely developmental pick for 2016 but Benenoch is agile, athletic and aggressive. With a year of pro development he could definitely contribute.
Risk / Reward Gamble - Noah Spence was one of the top pass rush talents in the draft, but off-field concerns were always going to push his stock down as he remains a risk. Spence was kicked off the Ohio State programme for continued drug test fails but appears to have turned round his career after transfer to Eastern Kentucky.
Tell Me Why Again - Kickers are allegedly people too, but are they really 2nd round picks? What made this selection more astonishing was the Bucs spending a 4th round pick to move up 15 slots to select him. It was an otherwise strong draft which gets marked down a grade for this move.