With the draft now less than 12 hours from commencing we're in the somewhat unusual situation of the #1 overall pick not being a lock-down, sure fire thing. The bookmakers over the pond here in the UK still list Jadeveon Clowney as the odds-on favourite at 4/9 (-225 for those of you in the U.S) but it's not exactly a cert and it's no guarantee that Houston will remain in the chair for the first selection of the day.
There's plenty of early interest for us Falcon fans and it's time for TD and the scouting network to earn their dollars.
The 1st pick overall is usually the one mock I can get right, so it could be downhill early on, but as is tradition here goes nothing.....
1. Houston Texans - DE Jadeveon Clowney
Houston we have a problem.
With Matt Schaub ran out of town the current Texans roster lists Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum and T.J Yates behind Center. If Houston stay at #1 the need pick is unarguably QB. However I doubt their strategy is to go QB here when there isn't an out-and-out #1 prospect in the mould of a Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck.
If the Texans do wish to draft to fill their biggest need early, I'd imagine they would ideally like to move down, accumulate additional picks and remain in the first 10 picks overall to pick up someone like Blake Bortles but I also expect they are acutely aware that a host of teams just below them in the draft order also have immediate needs at the QB position.
Should the Texans elect for best prospect then it's probably between Jadeveon Clowney, Khalil Mack or Sammy Watkins. This is a no-trade mock draft so I'm sticking with Houston at #1 but feel that an offer from anyone in the top 10 picks will be strongly considered.
Whether it's Houston or a bold move from the likes of Atlanta, I'm taking the pick of Clowney overall number one. I've not known a defensive end ever split opinion as much as Clowney with Mike Mayock billing him "As good a natural athlete that has ever played this position" and reminding him of "Bruce Smith back in his heyday" and Mel Kiper backing him as a "once in 20 years kind of guy" whilst other experts such as former Steeler Merrill Hoge have called his football fundamentals "atrocious" and with "a steep learning curve to be successful in the NFL" and fellow DE prospect Dee Ford comparing his technique to "a blind dog in a meat market", and my favourite Clowney quote courtesy of Warren Sapp claiming "he doesn't look like he plays with his hair on fire", Clowney could be the best player in this draft class or the biggest bust. Does your Front Office dare risk on passing up on him? Do they dare take him when there have been concerns around his commitment and work ethic? Assuming no trade, Khalil Mack remains a possibility. If Clowney hits his ceiling, pairing him with J.J.Watt could be a fearsome proposition.
2. St Louis Rams - OT Greg Robinson
Courtesy of the RGIII trade, the Rams again benefit from two first round picks for the second consecutive draft. They currently own a mid-round pick in addition to this one, so they could be prime candidates to trade down and obtain a further first round pick in 2015. If one of the two premier pass rushers goes #1 overall there could be plenty of offers from a pass rush needy team such as Atlanta to grab the guy remaining from Clowney and Mack.
Again on the principle of no trades, I don't buy the Rams interest in QB here. It's not the value pick and I don't think they are quite ready to quit on Sam Bradford yet. I believe they will draft a QB but not this early on. I'm thinking Jimmy Garoppolo if available in Round 3 or Zach Mettenberger later on. I also think the Rams are happy with their pass rush with their starting pairing of Robert Quinn and Chris Long, with impact from William Hayes in reserve.
I think they could swing a surprise and take Sammy Watkins and add a further weapon for Bradford but I suspect they have factored in the season ending injury to Jake Long and will look to take the best O-line prospect in Greg Robinson who seems to be graded with a higher ceiling than the likes of Jake Matthews and Taylor Lewan.
3- Jacksonville Jaguars - LB Khalil Mack
The last time the Jaguars failed to pick outside the top 10 was back in 2007 and here they are again, projected to select a player #3 overall. This is a poor team, but has responded to the new regime, and become more difficult to beat in 2013. They have enough holes that a trade down to accumulate further picks would be advantageous for the organisation. The off-season saw the Jaguars end the Blaine Gabbert experiment and they are another team in desperate need of a franchise passer. They also have major question marks on their one offensive playmaker in Justin Blackmon and may be tempted to replace/pair Sammy Watkins up with him. Blackmon and Watkins could potentially be formidable but having Chad Henne trying to get the ball out to them is the football equivalent of allowing your grandmother to pilot an F-35. Gus Bradley's a defensive minded coach but he knows that offense needs addressing. This is the toughest of the high-picks to predict and I expect trade down. If they stay and think QB then as to who they would take, well Bradley has seen his former Seahawks debunk the undersize QB myth with Russell Wilson but I still think Blake Bortles would be a safer pick than Jonny Manziel. Bortles could spend a season learning the ropes behind Henne and be eased into the starting role. However, a last minute change of heart sees me favouring best man available and Bradley sticking to his defensive roots with Buffalo's Khalil Mack.
4- Cleveland Browns - QB Jonny Manziel
The Browns defense is scary. Their offense is beginning to gain weapons. They also own two first round picks this year. Like the other teams ahead of them they wish a franchise QB was available in this draft. This is going to be a case of who the Browns like. If they love Manziel maybe he's the answer? Pairing Josh Gordon with Sammy Watkins would also be a great one-two but then you've got the problem of Brian Hoyer or Vince Young throwing to them, unless the Browns are sold on Derek Carr or Teddy Bridgewater and think they will last until late in Round One. They also have an option to pair All Pro Joe Thomas with Jake Matthews at right tackle, giving the incumbent QB great pass protection. I'm gambling that the Browns believe that they are only a QB away from a play-off run and love Manziel. I think this is too high for him, but the Browns need a spark. Against better judgement I'm going Manziel not Matthews.
5- Oakland Raiders - WR Sammy Watkins
The Raiders got their man in free agency and hope that Matt Schaub's 2013 was an aberration not a deterioration. If the draft falls right they can land the most explosive offensive player in the draft class and give Schaub a legitimate #1 receiver. Other options could be to shore up the O-line but Watkins would be too good to miss.
6 - Atlanta Falcons - OT Jake Matthews
Thomas Dimitroff was good to his word in toughening up the trenches in free agency and I don't see the gameplan changing much in the early rounds drafting strategy. Rumour is that the Falcons want to move up to bolster the pass-rush, and we know Dimitroff isn't the type to shy away from a deal as witnessed by the bold move for Julio Jones in 2011. If they trade up it must be with a view to land Clowney or Mack, if they stay at #6 it's unlikely either will be available unless a QB or OT panic run takes shape. At #6 the Falcons options will be on the other side of the trenches with likely picks Jake Matthews or Taylor Lewan. The Falcons have hosted both linemen pre-draft and whilst they like Lewan's toughness, the majority of experts have Matthews ranked as the second best lineman available. The
son of Hall of Fame Guard Bruce Matthews, carries exceptional NFL blood-lines as the nephew of former
Falcon and 19-yr NFL veteran Clay Matthews Jr and cousin of Green Bay’s Clay
Matthews III and his brother Casey. The family are
out-and-out football players and this would appear to be a pretty safe bet.
7 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Mike Evans
I see the Bucs going offense here but I'm not quite sure where. The rumour mill has them shopping last years drafted rookie Mike Glennon who appeared well thought of under the previous regime. The next question is whether the Bucs therefore think McCown is good enough to start or whether they have plans to draft and start a rookie. The Bucs also need to upgrade the tackle position and could consider Lewan. However, I'm going to go best available player again and see them go after a big target in Mike Evans who would be a great complement to Vincent Jackson and offer whoever is behind center two very good options at receiver.
8 - Minnesota Vikings - CB Justin Gilbert
The consensus mock pick here seems to be ILB C.J.Mosley but in Mike Zimmer's first draft I think he'll look to address the patchy secondary and take the top corner available in the draft. If I was going to go for a wildcard gamble then pass rush sensation and former RB Anthony Barr would certainly be an interesting outside bet. Zimmer could really bring him on.
9 - Buffalo Bills - OT Taylor Lewan
The Bills priority will be to offer E.J.Manuel more targets or afford him better protection. I think the Bills will be eyeing up Watkins or Evans if available and probably Eric Ebron at the TE position. However, my mock is allowing for Taylor Lewan to also be available at #9 and this would be an unexpected bonus for the Bills to swoop for the athletically gifted tackle.
10 - Detroit Lions - CB Darqueze Dennard
I considered TE here as would be the wish of many Lions fans who would have been happy to see former 1st rounder Brandon Pettigrew leave in free agency, but the coaches understand Pettigrew's worth and the need for them to shore up the defensive backfield. With Justin Gilbert off the board, it's Darqueze Dennard that I'm plumping for, though the Lions could possibly take the best safety off the board in Ha Ha Clinton Dix or the thumper Calvin Pryor.
11 - Tennessee Titans - CB Bradley Roby
The run on corners continues - with Jenkins and Dennard off the board,and the Titans sorely needing a cornerback, they gamble on Bradley Roby who brings wonderful athletic talent but also some off-field issues which are the only reason he's not a lock to go this high up.
12 - New York Giants - TE Eric Ebron
The standout Tight End in the draft class falls to a Giants team in dire need of targets other than Victor Cruz. Will have an immediate impact to the Giants team and boost the passing game, though isn't the complete package in terms of blocking yet. Now maybe WR's Marqise Lee or Odell Beckham come into the conversation or even someone to help keep Eli upright such as Zack Martin. They also need to replace Justin Tuck so a lineman such as Aaron Donald or Stephon Tuitt or a pass rusher such as Anthony Barr could spring a surprise - but this Giants team needs to give Eli help and will likely do so with an upgrade at one of the skill positions.
13 - St Louis Rams - S Ha Ha Clinton Dix
The Rams with their second pick in the 1st round get to address another position of need by taking the best draft prospect at the position. Ha'Sean can play strong or free and would be the second immediate starter for the Rams from this draft class.
14 - Chicago Bears - DT Aaron Donald
The traditionally solid Bears defense needs upgrading - ranked 28th against the run last year and 25th in total defense. I think they could easily select C.J.Mosley to play ILB but instead will opt to bring in further help for Jay Ratliff and select the best DT in this years draft in Aaron Donald who would be an ideal scheme fit for the Bears Tampa 2 type defensive scheme
15 - Pittsburgh Steelers - DE Stephon Tuitt
This is a team which needs help on both lines and has an aging secondary that needs addressing. When you have these needs a trade down is always a consideration to help fill more gaps and I see this a possibility if the top 3 corners have all been selected, and especially if local boy Aaron Donald is also off the board. If the Steelers stay defense therefore, I'm going a lot higher than other mocks with Stephon Tuitt who seems ideally suited to play 3-4 end and a good fit for the Steelers system. If they go offense there would be great value in a WR but I'd guess Zack Martin to protect Big Ben would be the more sensible choice.
16 - Dallas Cowboys - DE/LB Anthony Barr
They need replacements for Demarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher and secondary help - they ranked 28th against the pass in 2013 and the pass rush has only got weaker during free agency. Still available at this point is Anthony Barr who was not so long ago mentioned as a top 5 pick. The former running back brings pass rush potential to eventually help the Cowboys forget about Ware. He could be a hit or miss pick but the potential upside is huge for a guy who played RB until 2 years ago. The other option for the Cowboys could be to solve the problem position of Safety and I still have Calvin Pryor on my board as a hard-hitting option, and hush, but Tony Romo is returning from back surgery and there are still top prospects such as Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr and Blake Bortles available.
17 - Baltimore Ravens - ILB C.J.Mosley
It's too good a fit, the best 3-4 ILB available and from a system where he could slot in and start for the Ravens immediately. The Ravens have other needs but would love Mosley to fall this far. Other possible picks include safety or wide receiver, or further O-line protection for Flacco.
18 - New York Jets - WR Brandin Cooks
The Jets are primed to take a WR and there are plenty of first round prospects available. The focus from the Jets seems to be on Brandin Cooks although Odell Beckham and Marqise Lee are possibilities.
19 - Miami Dolphins - OT Zack Martin
The O-line needs addressing despite the signing of Branden Albert during free agency. Martin's the best prospect still on the board.
20 - Arizona Cardinals - QB Derek Carr
Breaking news - there is a pretty good team in Arizona. This draft will be about succession plans - the pass rush needs addressing as their main guy John Abraham will be 35 next year, likewise Carson Palmer is of similar age and his back-ups Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley are not the long-term answer. If the Cards are sold on any passer they could go grab a Bortles, Carr or Bridgewater here to sit and learn for a year or two.
21 - Green Bay Packers - S Calvin Pryor
The defensive front and secondary could do with addressing, so maybe Louis Nix or Kyle Fuller or Calvin Pryor are possibilities. Jermichael Finlay's replacement is also needed but I don't think Jace Amaro is quite a first round pick and is more receiver than TE at this point in time.
22 - Philadelphia Eagles - WR Marqise Lee
My opinion is that the Eagles secondary is it's weakest link at present and Calvin Pryor would have been a great fit who hits as hard as Andre Waters and Wes Hopkins in their heyday or Clinton Dix who is the better coverage safety. With these guys off the board the Eagles are probably going to hope Deone Bucannon is still there at #54 and find Desean Jackson's replacement in Rd 1. WR is very deep this year and I've got Marqise Lee and Odell Beckham still available or even the 6'6 Kelvin Benjamin who would provide a stark contrast replacement for the diminutive Desean. I'm going to opt for Lee who can provide deep threat and contribute in the return game also. Sounds familiar?
23 - Kansas City - WR Odell Beckham
I don't buy the QB replacement rumours around Alex Smith's contract. Either the Chiefs are trying to leverage contract negotiations or encourage a trade down or it's complete bluff. The Chiefs lost two guards in free agency and will address this at some point - however the value is with the quality of WR's and it's an area the Chiefs could use upgrade.
24 - Cincinnati Bengals - DE Demarcus Lawrence
Rumours abound on QB considerations but like the Chiefs above I don't buy it, not in Round 1. The Bengals need a pass rush replacement for Michael Johnson and could consider Demarcus Lawrence, they could also be looking at OT as they need a replacement for Anthony Collins and Cyrus Kouandjio is a raw prospect with plenty of potential upside.
25 - San Diego Chargers - CB Kyle Fuller
The Chargers desperately need corner help and I expect them to take the highest rated corner still available. If not sold on Fuller I don't see any other first round talent and would recommend a WR such as Kelvin Benjamin.
26 - Cleveland Browns - NT Timmy Jernigan
Assuming the Browns go Manziel at #4, otherwise it's definitely QB here. Either way I suspect the Browns would be keen to go offense with both picks if the right players are on the board - either at WR or OT in this case. However, Timmy Jernigan would be a good fit for NT in the Browns system and I'm not sure they pass on him here.
27 - New Orleans Saints - WR Kelvin Benjamin
Sean Payton likes tall receivers / tight ends with large wingspan. Cue all 6'6 of Kelvin Benjamin to give Drew Brees a new weapon.
28 - Carolina Panthers - WR Donte Moncrief
Everyone knows the Panthers have very little at WR following the release of Steve Smith and departure of Ted Ginn. Other free agent losses were incurred in the secondary with Captain Munnerlyn and Mike Mitchell moving on. Their best option here is at WR, hence my selection.
29 - New England Patriots - TE Jace Amaro
The Patriots would love a true #1 receiver but the last likely guy is just off the board. They need DL help on an aging D but with Aaron Hernandez arrested and the Gronk returning from injury they could be looking TE - we know how much Belichick loves multiple TE sets. Amaro isn't the finished package yet but is a dynamic receiving TE and it would be a great fit for him to develop.
30 - San Francisco 49ers - DE/LB Dee Ford
Another team with a wish to find a #1 receiver, the 49ers have chips to move up the draft board to achieve this and grab their man. Failing that, they're probably best addressing an aging DL, this is probably a reach but Dee Ford could be used in an Aldon Smith type specialist pass-rush role. Alternatively the 49ers could strengthen an already impressive LB corps via Ryan Shazier.
31 - Denver Broncos - LB Ryan Shazier
The Broncos needs are at CB and WR though if they go best player available Shazier will be taken here. Slightly undersized but speedy and can play the run and slide into coverage just as easily.
32 - Seattle Seahawks - CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste
A replacement for Golden Tate would be ideal for Seattle or an OL pick. I'm rounding out Rd 1 with a project who fits the prototype DB for Pete Carroll.
